Australia Australian Box Office | ....

[Sophia Jane]

when opening weekend came out Evenybody said it’s impossible for beating TGM here,now seems still have a chance,that’s why we never bet against James Cameron

[Robertron]

10 hours ago, JJ-8 said:

ok so i've done some analysis of by comparing against Rogue One.

 

Rogue 1 has already dropped off the pace.  

 

Rogue One 

WE 1 - 14.8m / 14.8m

WE 2 - 4.5m (-69.5%) / 24.9m

WE 3 - 5.9m (+30.8%) / 37.6m

TOTAL = 51.5m

 

Now in comparison Avatar TWOW

WE 1 - 14.7m / 16.6m

WE 2 - 7.2m / 30.8m

WE 3 - 10.6m / 51.4m

 

Reason for comparing here is because Rogue One was the last big film to open with Christmas and NYD both falling on the exact same time as Avatar TWOW's run.  (Xmas = 11th Day of run in both cases)

 

For some simple comparisons, I used Rogue One's run as a comparison :

 

starting with a 10m 3rd weekend.

- using Rogue Ones weekend drops -> Avatar TWOW reaches 76m

- Taking into account Avatar continues to outperform Rogue One drops / increases by approx 15% (which is what it has done each of the first 2 weeks (excluding week 1).) I reach around 95m - 100m.  

 

This weekend will be telling against rogue One, Rogue dropped 49% on it's 4th weekend.  a drop sub 40% puts Avatar TWOW on track for a total > 90m and possibly higher.

Sometimes I really struggle to see another $40m, but then you come along and do a comp like this and it just makes sense.

 

It’s wild that RO drops still get to $76m. I really don’t see how it misses $90m now.

 

A year with two $90m+ releases - whoda thunk it?

[Issac Newton]

AU$58.44M until Wed ~AU$7.02M Weekdays 

[Robertron]

18 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

AU$58.44M until Wed ~AU$7.02M Weekdays 

Unstoppable 

[lab276]

Slight increase for the week (+2.6%)

 

 

[JJ-8]

Top Films in AUD Comparison

Avatar TWOW continues perform above all it's competitors.  Weekend and weekly totals since boxing day have continued to perform above the original Avatar run.  Avatar TWOW now leads Avatar by 4m at the same point (end of the 3rd week) which is an increase of 1m since sunday.  In more recent comperisons, Avatar TWOW is just shy of the running total of Spiderman NWH after starting some 10m behind after its first weekend (EDIT - thanks lab i had copied the total down before fixed with NWH over 61m).  The latest 3rd week, weekdays were nearly double what NWH made.  NWH of course went on to make nearly 82m in the same timeframe in 2021/2022.  hence i've lifted the basement for Avatar TWOW to 80m now.  Lastly, Avatar TWOW is now nearly 10m in front of Top Gun Maverick which had some magnificent legs through the middle of the year.  However the weekly and weekend totals for week 3 easily outperfermed maverick.  Hence i've made it a wide range - 80m to 110m right now.  I think a trajectory around 95m seems good for now but there are lots of indicators that this could go higher and even threaten OG Avatar's total (in AUD)

 

Movie	Avatar		Star Wars: The Force Awakens		Avengers: Endgame		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Top Gun: Maverick		Avatar: The Way of Water
Released	17/12/2009		17/12/2015		24/04/2019		16/12/2021		26/05/2022		16/12/2022
Week 0	$931,125	$931,125			$10,290,526	$10,290,526			$1,346,822	$1,346,822
Week 1 (OW)	$11,962,308	$12,895,497	$27,254,820	$27,254,820	$34,116,525	$44,394,082	$26,187,275	$26,187,275	$13,788,797	$15,135,619	$14,743,196	$16,589,748
	$7,349,693	$20,245,190	$11,286,747	$38,541,567	$7,781,367	$52,175,449	$10,381,710	$36,568,985	$4,608,549	$19,744,168	$4,608,549	$19,744,168
W/E Screens/Ave	588	20,344	941	28,964	1,112	30,680	1,121	23,361	905	15,236	1,281	11,509
Opening Day			9,425,000		10,290,526		9,000,000  EST		2,500,000  EST		3,000,000  EST
Single Day			9,425,000 (Thursday)		10,290,526 (Wednesday)		9,000,000 EST (Thursday)		5,000,000 EST (Saturday)		4,500,000 EST (Saturday)
Week 2	$8,749,099	$28,994,289	$11,800,884	$50,342,451	$13,597,138	$65,772,587	$7,162,435	$43,731,420	$12,988,636	$32,732,084	$7,160,885	$30,762,664
	$9,772,863	$38,767,152	$10,604,824	$60,947,275	$3,094,595	$68,867,182	$8,467,709	$52,199,129	$3,910,391	$36,643,195	$10,027,219	$40,789,883
W/E % Drop	-26.9%		-56.7%		-60.1%		-72.6%		-5.8%		-51.4%
Week 3	$9,659,700	$48,426,852	$9,001,962	$69,949,237	$5,450,085	$74,317,267	$6,084,365	$58,286,056	$8,856,601	$45,499,796	$10,629,969	$51,424,196
	$6,475,778	$54,902,630	$5,017,486	$74,966,723	$1,278,696	$75,595,963	$3,614,236	$61,900,292	$3,967,915	$49,499,796	$7,012,650	$58,436,846
Week 4	$8,338,365	$63,240,995	$4,917,825	$79,884,548	$3,071,304	$78,667,267	$4,014,704	$65,914,996	$6,937,497	$56,405,208
	$5,032,850	$68,273,845	$2,249,767	$82,134,315	$644,464	$79,311,731	$1,668,631	$67,583,627	$2,424,242	$58,829,450
Week 5	$7,002,454	$75,276,299	$2,988,963	$85,123,278	$1,519,720	$80,831,451	$2,711,317	$70,294,944	$5,349,050	$64,178,500
Week 6	$5,604,268	$84,804,886	$1,826,202	$88,275,958	$790,477	$82,022,485	$2,152,017	$73,763,056	$5,777,726	$72,966,168
Week 7	$4,548,004	$92,706,581	$1,290,271	$90,638,978	$499,225	$82,753,423	$1,663,407	$76,660,960	$2,762,622	$78,029,960
Week 8	$3,936,622	$98,374,262	$754,425	$91,783,059	$256,402	$83,232,204	$1,055,022	$78,228,024	$2,189,240	$81,288,912
TOTAL:	$115,623,586		$94,034,011		$84,258,444		$81,750,000		$93,070,000		$58,436,846
Projected											80m-110m

[JJ-8]

and for shits and giggles here is a comparison against Rogue One   Given Rogue Ones total is already in the rear view mirror for Avatar TWOW.

 

Movie	Avatar		Avatar: The Way of Water		Rogue One
Released	17/12/2009		16/12/2022		16/12/2019
Week 0	$931,125	$931,125
Week 1 (OW)	$11,962,308	$12,895,497	$14,743,196	$16,589,748	$14,757,697	$14,757,697
	$7,349,693	$20,245,190	$4,608,549	$19,744,168
W/E Screens/Ave	588	20,344	1,281	11,509	932	15834
Opening Day			3,000,000  EST
Single Day			4,500,000 EST (Saturday)
Week 2	$8,749,099	$28,994,289	$7,160,885	$30,762,664	$4,500,620	$24,870,204
	$9,772,863	$38,767,152	$10,027,219	$40,789,883
W/E % Drop	-26.9%		-51.4%		-70%
Week 3	$9,659,700	$48,426,852	$10,629,969	$51,424,196	$5,886,394	$37,554,564
	$6,475,778	$54,902,630	7,
Week 4	$8,338,365	$63,240,995			$2,992,374	$43,776,227
	$5,032,850	$68,273,845
Week 5	$7,002,454	$75,276,299			$1,883,041	$47,136,474
Week 6	$5,604,268	$84,804,886			$1,039,532	$48,982,127
Week 7	$4,548,004	$92,706,581			$627,089	$50,074,073
Week 8	$3,936,622	$98,374,262			$348,193	$50,627,326
TOTAL:	$115,623,586		$51,424,196		$51,459,799
Projected

[upriser7]

wow those weekday numbers are strong. Is this going to be the highest 3rd week ever ? Or is there some other movie that holds that record ?

[lab276]

Slight error in the table @JJ-8 NWH was at 61.9m after third weekdays not 58.3m!

[Danhjpn]

It is sad that the ER is not good now.

$100M AUD = "only" $67M ... in comparing to 2009

[upriser7]

does anyone know which movie holds the record for highest 3rd week in Aus ?

[JJ-8]

28 minutes ago, lab276 said:

Slight error in the table @JJ-8 NWH was at 61.9m after third weekdays not 58.3m!

fixed - my bad, somehow had done a copy paste of the total after the weekend and missed it!

[JJ-8]

8 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

does anyone know which movie holds the record for highest 3rd week in Aus ?

 

Avatar TWOW - 17.6m

Avatar - 16.1m

Star Wars TFA - 14m

 

Not sure if there is anything in between but 

Top Gun Maverick - 12.8m

Spiderman NWH - 9.6m

 

There just isn't anything else that grossed high enough to figure in the 3rd week highest grosses.

[upriser7]

12 minutes ago, JJ-8 said:

 

Avatar TWOW - 17.6m

Avatar - 16.1m

Star Wars TFA - 14m

 

Not sure if there is anything in between but 

Top Gun Maverick - 12.8m

Spiderman NWH - 9.6m

 

There just isn't anything else that grossed high enough to figure in the 3rd week highest grosses.

wow...it's kinda crazy how closely Avatar2 is tracking alongside Avatar1 in Australia in both opening and legs

[Fanboy]

If TWOW does 100M+ total Avatar 3 better do at least $20M OW. 

[charlie Jatinder]

	SM:NWH		Rogue One		Avatar: The Way of Water		A2/RO	A2/NWH
Week 1	$26,187,274	$26,187,274	$14,757,697	$14,757,697	$16,589,146	$16,589,146	112.41%	63.35%
	$10,381,711	$36,568,985	$5,611,887	$20,369,584	$7,008,615	$23,597,761	124.89%	67.51%
Week 2	$7,162,435	$43,731,420	$4,500,620	$24,870,204	$7,154,949	$30,752,710	158.98%	99.90%
	$8,470,271	$52,201,691	$6,797,966	$31,668,170	$10,027,219	$40,779,929	147.50%	118.38%
Week 3	$6,084,365	$58,286,056	$5,886,394	$37,554,564	$10,629,969	$51,409,898	180.59%	174.71%
	$3,614,236	$61,900,292	$3,229,289	$40,783,853	$7,012,650	$58,422,548	217.16%	194.03%
Week 4	$4,014,704	$65,914,996	$2,992,374	$43,776,227
	$1,666,185	$67,581,181	$1,477,206	$45,253,433
Week 5	$4,016,908	$71,598,089	$2,689,162	$47,942,595
Week 6	$3,363,712	$74,961,801	$1,504,389	$49,446,984
Week 7	$2,170,008	$77,131,809	$832,149	$50,279,133
Week 8	$1,282,773	$78,414,582	$441,199	$50,720,332
Total	$81,150,423		$51,482,728

 

If it follows NWH, will lead to A$95M range.

[LPLC]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

	SM:NWH		Rogue One		Avatar: The Way of Water		A2/RO	A2/NWH
Week 1	$26,187,274	$26,187,274	$14,757,697	$14,757,697	$16,589,146	$16,589,146	112.41%	63.35%
	$10,381,711	$36,568,985	$5,611,887	$20,369,584	$7,008,615	$23,597,761	124.89%	67.51%
Week 2	$7,162,435	$43,731,420	$4,500,620	$24,870,204	$7,154,949	$30,752,710	158.98%	99.90%
	$8,470,271	$52,201,691	$6,797,966	$31,668,170	$10,027,219	$40,779,929	147.50%	118.38%
Week 3	$6,084,365	$58,286,056	$5,886,394	$37,554,564	$10,629,969	$51,409,898	180.59%	174.71%
	$3,614,236	$61,900,292	$3,229,289	$40,783,853	$7,012,650	$58,422,548	217.16%	194.03%
Week 4	$4,014,704	$65,914,996	$2,992,374	$43,776,227
	$1,666,185	$67,581,181	$1,477,206	$45,253,433
Week 5	$4,016,908	$71,598,089	$2,689,162	$47,942,595
Week 6	$3,363,712	$74,961,801	$1,504,389	$49,446,984
Week 7	$2,170,008	$77,131,809	$832,149	$50,279,133
Week 8	$1,282,773	$78,414,582	$441,199	$50,720,332
Total	$81,150,423		$51,482,728

 

If it follows NWH, will lead to A$95M range.

Is AEG 100% dead here ?

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Is AEG 100% dead here ?

come on? when I am saying A$95M is doable, obviously that means its gonna pass A$84M.

Edited January 5, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[LPLC]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

come on? when I am saying A$95M is doable, obviously that means its gonna pass A$84M.

Yes but maybe it's not yet 100% locked that's why I ask

[JJ-8]

I would say it’s getting close to locked.  I’d 80m seems like the floor right now. So not much of a stretch to 85m. 
 

Remember, A2 is ahead of A1 by 4m and is posting stronger days over its 3rd weekend.