Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Deep Wang]

2 hours ago, stuart360 said:

Dont really get the celebrating over 16mil Monday by the haters on here. I had a 750-800mil total and i had the first Monday at 17mil!.

Granted my total almost certainly isnt going to happen anymore but still i dont see a 16mil first Monday as terrible.

 

But that's because you are still expecting a second weekend drop under 40%.  Let's just say it matches R1's Thursday total of $16.7m, you will need an increase of at least 50% to get it to 25m and that puts it on pace for 45% drop.  You are probably going to need a 60-70% increase on Friday to get to where it needs to be for that sub 40 drop.  

 

Of course a better increase than R1 isn't impossible, the length is definitely going to make it more weekend friendly, but the question is how much of an increase?  There's also the fact that R1 increased 12% from Wed>Thursday which is part of the reason it only increased 36% on Friday.  

 

47 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Watch it go over 17mil with actuals.

 

Thats one of the tedious things about people on here, 17mil Monday and its '600mil is locked!', 16mil Monday and its 'This isnt hitting 300mil is it?'.

 

People need to top take it easy. If Christmas weekdays dont hit 100+mil, then i'll start 'worrying'.

 

It very well could go over 17m!  That's the joy of BOT 🤣

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

But that's because you are still expecting a second weekend drop under 40%.  Let's just say it matches R1's Thursday total of $16.7m, you will need an increase of at least 50% to get it to 25m and that puts it on pace for 45% drop.  You are probably going to need a 60-70% increase on Friday to get to where it needs to be for that sub 40 drop.  

 

Of course a better increase than R1 isn't impossible, the length is definitely going to make it more weekend friendly, but the question is how much of an increase?  There's also the fact that R1 increased 12% from Wed>Thursday which is part of the reason it only increased 36% on Friday.  

 

 

It very well could go over 17m!  That's the joy of BOT 🤣

But my thing is Deep Wang that the film is over 3 hours, we are talking nearly 4 hours slots per showing, meaning probably quite a bit lower amount of showings than R1. Combine that with clear evidence that people are willing to wait for the better screens and seats, and i still see 16mil as a good number.

[Deep Wang]

15 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

But my thing is Deep Wang that the film is over 3 hours, we are talking nearly 4 hours slots per showing, meaning probably quite a bit lower amount of showings than R1. Combine that with clear evidence that people are willing to wait for the better screens and seats, and i still see 16mil as a good number.

 

I get what you are saying, but it contradicts with what you want for this weekend.  At least based on historical comps that is.  

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I get what you are saying, but it contradicts with what you want for this weekend.  At least based on historical comps that is.  

If you mean my 40% Christmas weekend drop, i just feel that people are willing to wait for the better screens ansd seats, and because of that, demand for those showings and seats will continue for quite a while yet.

If i'm wrong then i'm wrong.

Myself, i'm not going to start worrying until we get to the Christmas week weekdays. If those 4 weekdays dont hit 100+mil then i will accept that i'm wrong about this filsm potential.

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Myself, i'm not going to start worrying until we get to the Christmas week weekdays. If those 4 weekdays dont hit 100+mil then i will accept that i'm wrong about this filsm potential.

For reference, what are you currently predicting for DOM total?

 

Im down to about $540M.

[Sheldon Cr]

7 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

If you mean my 40% Christmas weekend drop, i just feel that people are willing to wait for the better screens ansd seats, and because of that, demand for those showings and seats will continue for quite a while yet.

If i'm wrong then i'm wrong.

Myself, i'm not going to start worrying until we get to the Christmas week weekdays. If those 4 weekdays dont hit 100+mil then i will accept that i'm wrong about this filsm potential.

It would be funny if those 4 Xmas Weekdays = 120-140-M or more lol, but I digress.  We would need alot of smelling salts if your 100+M days happened bigtime.. 

Lots of Naysayers would  flop over on their desks at that kind of comeback Brother Stewart.

 

Whats the best XMAS week run in the Pandemic Era(Spidey?)

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[Sheldon Cr]

Just now, XXR 4x OW or Bust said:

For reference, what are you currently predicting for DOM total?

 

Im down to about $540M.

I feel Brother XXR that the domestic Tally  will be at least 100M more than that and up to over 400M more

if it goes where I know it can on the highend

 

540M Domestic seems a bit low(though that too is great for any movie)

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, XXR 4x OW or Bust said:

For reference, what are you currently predicting for DOM total?

 

Im down to about $540M.

I'm saying around 450 after New Years weekend, and 600-650 total.

I'm still not totally against it hitting 700mil in the US, and i'm still not totally against it hitting 2bil WW. In fact i still feel its more probable that the film goes over 2bil WW than under 2bil.

[SnokesLegs]

Just me that feels people are being overly pessimistic about the chances of the fourth and fifth films? Let’s say this one makes $1.5 billion WW, the drop for the third one is likely to be considerably less than the drop between A1 and A2, so it’s still likely above a billion. I can’t see Disney walking away from a franchise that is still making that much money, even if it is on a downward trajectory.
 

I know they paused big screen Star Wars after TROS, but that seems to have more to do with the announced films not getting beyond the development stage rather than Disney actively trying to take a break.

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Just me that feels people are being overly pessimistic about the chances of the fourth and fifth films? Let’s say this one makes $1.5 billion WW, the drop for the third one is likely to be considerably less than the drop between A1 and A2, so it’s still likely above a billion. I can’t see Disney walking away from a franchise that is still making that much money, even if it is on a downward trajectory.
 

I know they paused big screen Star Wars after TROS, but that seems to have more to do with the announced films not getting beyond the development stage rather than Disney actively trying to take a break.

Thing is A3 may not even drop from A2, in fact it could go higher.

Exchange rates will hopefully be a lot better 2 years from now,. We will be a further 2 years past the pandemic and hopefully cinema's are back to close to how they were pre-pandemic. And hopefully Cjina shouldnt be deep in a major covid outbreak.

Remember we are literally losing like 400-600mil off A2's final gross because of the situation in China.

[Aristis]

I wonder if JC will talk more careful in the future. That 2B-break even thing really seems to hurt. 

 

https://www.axios.com/2022/12/20/avatar-way-of-water-disappointing-debut

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, Aristis said:

I wonder if JC will talk more careful in the future. That 2B-break even thing really seems to hurt. 

 

https://www.axios.com/2022/12/20/avatar-way-of-water-disappointing-debut

2b break-even is misreporting

 

Total production cost including marketing seems to be around $600m as of now, I guess this equates to around $1400m required for a profit

 

[Deuce66]

The first $500 million has been earned. 

 

 

 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Deuce66 said:

The first $500 million has been earned. 

 

 

 

 

1 billie by tuesday

[kayumanggi]

current top 10 international markets

 

01 | 62.1 M | China

02 | 27.4 M | South Korea

03 | 26.0 M | France

04 | 22.0 M | India

05 | 21.3 M | Germany

06 | 16.3 M | United Kingdom

07 | 15.6 M | Mexico

08 | 12.5 M | Australia

09 | 11.7 M | Italy

10 | 10.0 M | Brazil

 

It is a complete shock that Japan isn't on the list. France added a great Monday number.

[Deuce66]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

1 billie by tuesday

 

By DEC 27 ? It's possible. I expect it to be in 5th place for 2022 by the end of next weekend. Somewhere between $788-$938 million. 

[Deuce66]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

current top 10 international markets

 

01 | 62.1 M | China

02 | 27.4 M | South Korea

03 | 26.0 M | France

04 | 22.0 M | India

05 | 21.3 M | Germany

06 | 16.3 M | United Kingdom

07 | 15.6 M | Mexico

08 | 12.5 M | Australia

09 | 11.7 M | Italy

10 | 10.0 M | Brazil

 

It is a complete shock that Japan isn't on the list. France added a great Monday number.

 

I would love to see a market study of Japan, what the hell happened there? 

[Aristis]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

2b break-even is misreporting

 

Total production cost including marketing seems to be around $600m as of now, I guess this equates to around $1400m required for a profit

 

Yes it is, but that belief is in the world now. I wonder if there'll be a statement sometime to clarify it officially. 

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Yes it is, but that belief is in the world now. I wonder if there'll be a statement sometime to clarify it officially. 

there was, james cameron addressed it already

[Fancyarcher]

Enjoyed this one just as about as much as the first. Seeing it on the big screen gave me the same sort of feeling in 2009, and it helps that there were a decent amount of people in the cinema too. 

 

Also I made a video about the original to go along with the release of the new film. It's mostly about James Cameron's skills as a filmmaker, but also why the film works as well as it does as an experience.