Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

12 minutes ago, danziger said:

I'm still seeing a lot of people on social media saying this will probably flop. The hatred and toxicity against James Cameron is in overdrive and once again people are blinding themselves to incoming reality. Even most industry professionals that I've seen seem to doubt TWOW will top TGM worldwide. John Campea has been saying that it won't get close to $2 billion, and this is despite him liking Cameron and Avatar. Kristian Harloff said before he saw TWOW he thought it would get $1.2bn, and after seeing it he's upped that but still says it won't hit $2bn. So the disconnect between this thread and most of the industry seems really extreme. I haven't followed this stuff enough to make any predictions, but I hope you guys are right.

You need to spent more time here! Anyone here after hearing that guy thinking $1.2b was possible would have wrote him off as clueless and never watched his stuff related to box office again.

 

I haven't seen one person on BOT go anywhere close to $1.2b worldwide in 2022.

Edited December 11, 2022 by IronJimbo

[JustLurking]

30 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

Only if Avatar 2 turns out to be super polarizing.

I'm no SW fan, but wasn't TLJ the polarizing entry? I thought TFA was well received.

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

To be frank, they don't know or track the box office. While they work in the industry and are tangentially near it, listening to their thoughts on the box office is like asking a neurosurgeon to perform a heart transplant.

Yep just said the same myself.

There are some pretty hilarious predicitions out there, especially by clueless Youtubers and 'Influencers'.

 

EDIT. I mean some of us on here have had some fun and pointed out some very high predicitions, but at the same time we have shown routes to get to that number.

 

Its different to someone being totally cluless and saying 'This will get to 1bil and thats about it'.

Edited December 11, 2022 by stuart360

[Sheldon Cr]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Just because people work in the industry, it doesnt mean they are box office experts (and i'm not saying we are either, but we do spend time on this for fun). Same with the Youtubers and 'influencers'.

 

I mean i have seen Youtubes say ' i can see this hitting 1bil but not much more'.

Its just clueless if you sit down and work it out.

 

The WW opening weekend will probably be in the 700-800mil range, with 600mil probably being locked lol. Even a pitiful 3x multiplyer off the WW OW will be over 2bil. Thats why 2bil is 100% locked.

I would say 2.1-2.2b ww is locked with China looking to hit 800-1b plus all by itself. Just insane such a huge movie and is so supported that is 13 yrs later my friends. Wow!!

 

[dignam]

10 minutes ago, danziger said:

I'm still seeing a lot of people on social media saying this will probably flop. The hatred and toxicity against James Cameron is in overdrive and once again people are blinding themselves to incoming reality. Even most industry professionals that I've seen seem to doubt TWOW will top TGM worldwide. John Campea has been saying that it won't get close to $2 billion, and this is despite him liking Cameron and Avatar. Kristian Harloff said before he saw TWOW he thought it would get $1.2bn, and after seeing it he's upped that but still says it won't hit $2bn. So the disconnect between this thread and most of the industry seems really extreme. I haven't followed this stuff enough to make any predictions, but I hope you guys are right.

 

 

People  said that avatar wont make 700mio WW back than, it would be a total flop. Its always the same with cameron movies "IT will flop, no one wants to see a movie about titanic, where everyone knows whats happen" "No one wants to see a movie about blue cat people,  it will totally flop". And yet we are here, in 2022 and people still bring up the same claims. They will never learn.

 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Yep just said the same myself.

There are some pretty hilarious predicitions out there, especially by clueless Youtubers and 'Influencers'.

Koff  on some of these clueless YouTube's comparing this to Black Adam and DS2😅😅

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

This definitely has the novelty factor of a Force Awakens style film. 

 

The real novelty of TFA was the return of Fisher/Hamill/Ford.  

 

This is just a sequel 13 years later, I don't think it's quite the same thing.  

 

 

[danziger]

7 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

To be frank, they don't know or track the box office. While they work in the industry and are tangentially near it, listening to their thoughts on the box office is like asking a neurosurgeon to perform a heart transplant.

 

Yeah I should've added back when I did follow box office closely the experts on BOM forums were way more accurate than the industry media in general.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

The real novelty of TFA was the return of Fisher/Hamill/Ford.  

 

This is just a sequel 13 years later, I don't think it's quite the same thing.  

 

 

that novelty wears off after the first watch, especially considering their minor roles

[jedijake]

7 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I'm no SW fan, but wasn't TLJ the polarizing entry? I thought TFA was well received.

correct

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The real novelty of TFA was the return of Fisher/Hamill/Ford.  

 

This is just a sequel 13 years later, I don't think it's quite the same thing.  

 

 

It isnt the same thing no, but AVATAR was also a much bigger film that any Star Wars film worldwide, even when taking into account inflation i'm pretty sure.

 

Star Wars is def king in the US, but worldwide its a different matter.

Edited December 11, 2022 by stuart360

[Sheldon Cr]

10 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

To be frank, they don't know or track the box office. While they work in the industry and are tangentially near it, listening to their thoughts on the box office is like asking a neurosurgeon to perform a heart transplant.

Lol well put brother XXR.🥊😅

[Sheldon Cr]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The real novelty of TFA was the return of Fisher/Hamill/Ford.  

 

This is just a sequel 13 years later, I don't think it's quite the same thing.  

 

 

It's bigger. Especially on how much people said it was the greatest film experience of their lives who are OT sws fans. There's definitely a bigger crazy worldwide for Avatars Return brother WANG. As your about to find out with Avatars obliteration of so many records.😉

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, danziger said:

Yeah I should've added back when I did follow box office closely the experts on BOM forums were way more accurate than the industry media in general.

The overall general conseus on this site is better than anywhere on the internet honestly. People are forced to learn how box office works on here, while on /r/boxoffice for example someone can just go into a thread, spew their senseless thoughts then go back to /r/movies or something.

Box Office Pro / Deadline / Hollywood Reporter are all good too

 

[Alexdube]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The real novelty of TFA was the return of Fisher/Hamill/Ford.  

 

This is just a sequel 13 years later, I don't think it's quite the same thing.  

 

 

 

That's not novelty that's nostalgia bait, just like NWH. It makes good business though not gonna deny that

 

Avatar 2 will have novelty, at the very least in terms of visual spectacle, just like any James Cameron movie.

[Deep Wang]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

that novelty wears off after the first watch, especially considering their minor roles

 

Sure thing man, whatever you say!

[Sheldon Cr]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

It isnt the same thing ho, but AVATAR was also a much bigger film that any Star Wars film worldwide, even when taking into account inflation i'm pretty sure.

 

Star Wars is def king in the US, but worldwide its a different matter.

Theres no doubt about it. I mean folks committing sucide because they can't go back to Jims fictional dream world speaks volumes on how folks are so excited to experience travelling to Pandora again finally!!

[Deep Wang]

2 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

 

That's not novelty that's nostalgia bait, just like NWH.

 

It can be both.  Which is why both of those movies made A LOT of money.  

[Sheldon Cr]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

It can be both.  Which is why both of those movies made A LOT of money.  

Yeah but FA dropped off thanks to not quite satisfying the fandom. NWH did nostalgia right. Big difference. No pademic Nwh would be bigger than endgame.

[danziger]

In addition to TLJ having a big drop from TFA, Empire also had a massive drop from Star Wars despite having massive critical acclaim. I know that was a time when sequels were generally less successful, but I think the first Star Wars hit levels with the novelty factor that virtually no sequel could have matched. Same with Jurassic Park, and I always feared Avatar would be similar but we'll see. There's no one like James Cameron, obviously.