Barbie | July 21, 2023 | Warner Bros | Margot Robbie is Barbie. Ryan Gosling is Ken. | Second most profitable movie of 2023

[ZattMurdock]

9 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Google says 85-90% of females have owned a Barbie doll in their lives. That's insane. That is far bigger built-in audience than any of the superhero stuff that people might bring up. Even Spider-Man (bigger than Batman) does not have that type of brand saturation with boys and men.

 

These days everything at the box office is all about franchises and brand recognition. It's why Disney went on a rampage buying out everyone with established popular brands (PIXAR, Marvel, Lucasfilm). My cousin was big into Barbie dolls when she was a kid. Guessing she and others her age will be going to this movie, perhaps multiple times. 

It’s so obvious why Barbie is popular and yet people keep blaming the youth that Barbie’s popularity on TikTok and memes. It’s obvious nostalgia for something that was part of a whole lot people’s lives. The slam dunk here isn’t TikTok and memes, it’s getting the right people to work with a beloved character / brand. It’s so obvious it hurts.

Edited July 15, 2023 by ZattMurdock

[redfirebird2008]

6 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Oppenheimer is pretty much tracking along (if not higher than?) the biggest non-bats Nolan openings. Realistically I think Oppy is doing about as much as anyone could want, but there's no way this sort of film can put up the numbers Barbie is doing

 

Give it to another director and I'm not sure it even cracks 30M OW...granted it obviously benefits from the barbenheimer phenomenom, but even then...if it was a director without Nolan's following I'm not sure this thing would've even started, Oppenheimer would've just been that biopic that got drowned by Barbie

It would not exist at all without Nolan’s desire to do the project. Hollywood already did a movie in 1989 based on the nuke project. It featured Paul Newman, but it was a massive bust. $30 million budget and less than $4 million at the box office. 

[The GOAT]

3 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

It’s so obvious why Barbie is popular and yet people keep blaming the youth that Barbie’s popularity on TikTok and memes. It’s obvious nostalgia for something that was part of a whole lot people’s lives. The slam dunk here isn’t TikTok and memes, it’s getting the right people to work with a beloved character / brand. It’s so obvious it hurts.

Millennial and Gen Z women are huge on TikTok 

[ZattMurdock]

11 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Millennial and Gen Z women are huge on TikTok 

Do you know what is also huge among Millenial and Gen Z women (and kids for that matter)?

 

Barbie.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Been looking at a deep dive into the data with some very knowledgeable folks and lemme just say....

 

At this point I wouldn't be shocked if Barbie dethrones Deathly Hallows 2 as WB's highest domestic opener. I wouldn't currently bet on it, but if it happens it wouldn't surprise me. It would almost certainly happen if Barbie had the full breadth of PLF instead of a half share... 

[WorkingonaName]

1 minute ago, XXR Union Solidarity said:

Been looking at a deep dive into the data with some very knowledgeable folks and lemme just say....

 

At this point I wouldn't be shocked if Barbie dethrones Deathly Hallows 2 as WB's highest domestic opener. I wouldn't currently bet on it, but if it happens it wouldn't surprise me. It would almost certainly happen if Barbie had the full breadth of PLF instead of a half share... 

Barbillion grilling baby. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, WorkingonaName said:

Barbillion grilling baby. 

 

Still not sure about that. Seems like it's DOA in a lot of markets but maybe DOM, Europe and LATAM are enough to carry it.

[JustLurking]

11 minutes ago, XXR Union Solidarity said:

 

Still not sure about that. Seems like it's DOA in a lot of markets but maybe DOM, Europe and LATAM are enough to carry it.

Fwiw, I was pretty skeptical of my market (Italy) but now theaters near me are filling up quite nicely...nowhere near DOM and especially LATAM madness, mind you, but for a market that isn't presales heavy, I like what I see...

 

But yeah, billy's always tough with bad Asia.

[vale9001]

After I'm Just Ken 80M locked in Japan. 

[vale9001]

Even a kinda of special on TCM. It's really everywhere 🤣

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by vale9001

[upriser7]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Fwiw, I was pretty skeptical of my market (Italy) but now theaters near me are filling up quite nicely...nowhere near DOM and especially LATAM madness, mind you, but for a market that isn't presales heavy, I like what I see...

 

But yeah, billy's always tough with bad Asia.

I think it can make a billion if it overperforms a lot on LATAM and so far the signs are showing that it has potential to do that. Something like 500M in US/Canada, 150M-175M in LATAM, 250-275M in Europe + Oceania (pre-sales in Australia also have been excellent). So it would just need like 50-75M from Asia. I was initially skeptical but now I feel like it's doable

[joselowe]

35 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

I think it can make a billion if it overperforms a lot on LATAM and so far the signs are showing that it has potential to do that. Something like 500M in US/Canada, 150M-175M in LATAM, 250-275M in Europe + Oceania (pre-sales in Australia also have been excellent). So it would just need like 50-75M from Asia. I was initially skeptical but now I feel like it's doable

Is $250 million possible in LATAM? I used to live in a South American country and tickets are dirt cheap compared to the USA and Europe. This film would have to do Fast and Furious 9 numbers but I don’t see Latino men coming out for Barbie with all the machismo out there.

[WorkingonaName]

1 minute ago, joselowe said:

Is $250 million possible in LATAM? I used to live in a South American country and tickets are dirt cheap compared to the USA and Europe. This film would have to do Fast and Furious 9 numbers but I don’t see Latino men coming out for Barbie with all the machismo out there.

Presales are off the charts there.

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Fwiw, I was pretty skeptical of my market (Italy) but now theaters near me are filling up quite nicely...nowhere near DOM and especially LATAM madness, mind you, but for a market that isn't presales heavy, I like what I see...

 

But yeah, billy's always tough with bad Asia.

 

I have faith. Movies are now making billies without China. So one movie is going to make a billie without not just China but Asia so why not Barbillie? 

[upriser7]

6 minutes ago, joselowe said:

Is $250 million possible in LATAM? I used to live in a South American country and tickets are dirt cheap compared to the USA and Europe. This film would have to do Fast and Furious 9 numbers but I don’t see Latino men coming out for Barbie with all the machismo out there.

I don't think 250M is doable in LATAM for Barbie. EndGame I think is highest grosser in LATAM and it did around 250M...NWH did around 225M, Mario did around 200M, A2 did around 180M. FastX did around 120M...Barbie pre-sales have been by far the biggest so far this year in couple of markets that were tracked..so I am hopeful it can do 150M here

[TinaDuraes]

On 7/15/2023 at 1:25 AM, redfirebird2008 said:

Why would it be jawdropping? There’s a massive built-in audience. 

I mean, I don't think even the most optimistic person expected this movie to be as big as it is looking to be.

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, TinaDuraes said:

I mean, I don't think even the most optimistic person expected this movie to be as big as it is looking to be.

 

The raw numbers are there in terms of population, if Google is anywhere close to accurate when it says over 80% of the female population has owned a Barbie doll. 

[lab276]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The raw numbers are there in terms of population, if Google is anywhere close to accurate when it says over 80% of the female population has owned a Barbie doll. 

 

Loads of people played battleship too. It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, lab276 said:

 

Loads of people played battleship too. It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. 

 

It means you have no hard ceiling on the potential of the movie. In America, you potentially have 130 million females who owned Barbie dolls at some point. You have them potentially dragging their boyfriends or husbands to the movie as well, so you can double that potential audience number.

 

It's not going to sell 130 million tickets or 260 million tickets in the USA, but it has a giant pool to play in. All you need is 20 million tickets to hit $200 million on opening weekend. That's very doable if you at least have a big enough potential audience pool starting out. Just attract a decent percentage of that very large pool of people. 

[vale9001]

They have made already a lot of Barbie animated movies. They are just for Kids. 

 

I don't think just because you had a Barbie you need as 30+ years old to watch a Barbie movie 

 

As someone already pointed out here the fact Is the movie seems to play with you nostalgia but also with the idea it's something makes you to reflect about womanhood in a mature way. A sort of where we started and where we are now.

So like every gerwig movie you have a movie about became ad adult woman and find your place.

 

 

At least for a big millennial audience.

 

Then maybe there are also people want their Paris Hilton inspired movie, families going for a laugh with the Kids..and the big audience is made cause It's attracting a variegate audience ....but the Key of the success is "everyone had a Barbie but now you're woman, you're maybe a mother, you're different, you don't care about Barbie anymore or you hate her, but let's make a journey to see how we get here".

 

Of course all the cast involved, the fact they made a movie like this, so Warner had the chance to promote it like this, it'a not a granted thing for every Barbie movie but seems very specific.