Weekend ASM2 thread: 92M

[Chewy]

Nothing lasts forever. If it did, westerns would probably still be the biggest hits around.

 

True, but westerns lasted for decades. And there were a LOT more than 5 or 6 released a year.

[Mojoguy]

[Claire of Themyscira]

I'm disappointed because I went a bit higher on my prediction for BSG, but I'm happy because this is good for Godzilla.

 

[unbidj]

I think it's more bad Spider-Man movie fatigue.

 

yes pretty much agree with this. spider man still the most popular comic book character, I'm sure a good spider-man film can make 1B

Edited May 3, 2014 by ClarkKent

[Orestes]

Well it certainly is good. 

 

I dunno, critical reception is bad, and given how front loaded with fanboys franchise film OWs are, never mind Super Hero franchise films, that cinema score is worrisome. Even Green Lantern had a B cinema score. Of course, we have to wait for legs to kick in to truely tell how it's recieved, but if I had to bet, I would bet its legs don't reflect a good film.

Edited May 3, 2014 by Orestes

[baumer]

With the mixed WOM and Godzilla/X-men coming out, not to mention Neighbors, the multiplier on this probably won't go much higher than a 2.35.

[ecstasy]

I dunno, critical reception is bad, and given how front loaded with fanboys franchise film OWs are, never mind Super Hero franchise films, that cinema score is worrisome. Even Green Lantern had a B cinema score. Of course, we have to wait for legs to kick in to truely tell how it's recieved, but if I had to bet, I would bet its legs don't reflect a good film.

 

I see your point.

[Orestes]

True, but westerns lasted for decades. And there were a LOT more than 5 or 6 released a year.

 

Right. How on earth can ~8 hours of one particular film genre over an entire year be considered fatigue inducing? 10 if you count BH6. I don't. I'm borderline on even considering GotG, considering it looks nothing like a Super Hero movie and everything like a Space Opera.

[ecstasy]

I guess rth is done for the night.

[BadAtGender]

Except that Marvel films continue to grow.  Every single Avengers sequel that has been released has increased from the last one starting with IM3.  So where is the fatigue there?  Maybe there's just Spider-man fatigue. 

 

So far, yes. And that was my point: by dint of his age as a movie presence, Spidey's going to feel the fatigue first. It's not an even process, just that the genre is getting saturated and things will start to take hits.

 

Also, error on my part. For some reason I thought Wolverine Origins came out in 2007, not 2009. So Spidey actually had just as long a rest period as he did between films. Still, the subdued gross for the past two X-Men films could be cited as earlier fatigue.

 

It's possible, if Sony and/or Fox decided to give up on their respective franchises, that things will even out. I can't see Marvel pushing forward with more than two films a year, not for the long term. So that could keep the life going for a while yet. However, there's plenty of evidence in multiple franchises and genres that audiences do not keep coming back, even if there's a films that improve over their predecessors. They get tired out and things plateau and start to drop. It will happen to the MCU at some point.

 

Perhaps not soon, though. Their formula does still feel a bit fresh.

 

 

IAC, looking at other recent summer openers, it's going to earn about half its total gross in about a week. Wolverine Origins hit the mark in 4 days. Others had it as long as nine. So whatever it's sitting at going into next weekend is probably about the 50% mark.

[Chewy]

They get tired out and things plateau and start to drop. It will happen to the MCU at some point.

 

Perhaps not soon, though. Their formula does still feel a bit fresh.

 

I think you'll start to see it if/when they recast the big three after Avengers 3

[kowhite]

True, but westerns lasted for decades. And there were a LOT more than 5 or 6 released a year.

I'm sure talk of western box office fatigue was all the rage back on Internet forums during the 1950s.

[BadAtGender]

I think you'll start to see it if/when they recast the big three after Avengers 3

 

Yeah, that's definitely one issue. Right now the MCU is entirely tied up with the whole Avengers concept. GotG will be very interesting to watch to see if they can bridge the gap and get people watching other characters.

[Chewy]

Right. How on earth can ~8 hours of one particular film genre over an entire year be considered fatigue inducing? 10 if you count BH6. I don't. I'm borderline on even considering GotG, considering it looks nothing like a Super Hero movie and everything like a Space Opera.

 

Well, stuff like Robocop, Jupiter Ascending, TMNT, Hercules, Transformers, etc is basically "superhero" too. There's plenty of structural and tonal similarity there. So people aren't just talking about the Marvel/DC films

 

That said, just like with other genres, certain franchises will have their day in the sun and then burn out. But that doesn't mean people are sick of the genre as a whole

Edited May 3, 2014 by Chewy

[DeeCee]

Kind of weird how it is titled "Bad Neighbours" in most countries, and just "Neighbors" in the US. The poster and marketing kind of makes sure that everyone knows that the neighbors hate each other, but wonder how the marketing and title decisions are made worldwide.

I wonder if the TV show was a consideration for Australia and the UK. Anyway, I think Bad Neighbours works better as a title. Having now just watched the trailer I feel sorry for those who have already seen the trailer. The jokes had a much bigger impact not knowing what to expect. Also, GOTG trailer continues to get a good reaction. The whole audience always laughs at the "bunch of a-holes" line.

[Sam]

I think you'll start to see it if/when they recast the big three after Avengers 3

Yep. I'm a big Avengers fan, and even I don't have much interest in Avengers or Big Three franchises when thinking about things past that point.

[Sam]

I'm sure talk of western box office fatigue was all the rage back on Internet forums during the 1950s.

You are on fire tonight

[Fake]

So.... I guess

 

High end: 35-35-25 = 95M, 2.5x multiplier for 235M

 

Low end: 33-31-21 = 85M, 2.3x multiplier for 195M

[Deathlife]

Good movies will always find a way regardless of genre.If this movie connects with audiences like the original trilogy did, then it will perform on its own steam. I haven't seen the movie yet, so I can't comment on its quality, however, that B+ Cinema score for a movie that's supposed to be a crowd pleaser isn't really an encouraging sign.When it's all said and done, the problem this movie is having is people didn't connect with the first one. The public just aren't supercharged for the movie the way they should and that's why it's having a "good" opening and not a "great one".It's not really complicated.

[Orestes]

Well, stuff like Robocop, Jupiter Ascending, TMNT, even Transformers is basically "superhero" too. There's plenty of structural and tonal similarity there. So people aren't just talking about the Marvel/DC films

 

That said, just like with other genres, certain franchises will have their day in the sun and then burn out. But that doesn't mean people are sick of the genre as a whole

 

Turtles and Transformers I can see, but not so much Robocop and Jupiter Ascending. At that point, you're basically defining "superhero" as "action." In which case we throw in Rambo, Die Hard, Death Wish, basically any 80s or 90s action flick, The Matrix, Star Wars.

 

edit: To expand. That's just basic Hero's Journey type stuff so far as structure and tone. If humans were ever gonna get burned out on that, it would've happened some time around Gilgamesh, I think.

Edited May 3, 2014 by Orestes