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Tuesday Actuals 5/6/14: TASM2 - 6.24M

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Very few movies have missed 200M after hitting 75M+ OW. Very few but it could happen. Hopefully not for the sake of the series.

That's true, but it will be hit hard by Godzilla next week and the again with X-Men, if it drops that bad with no competition there's no way it can pick up legs with competition in May.
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That's true, but it will be hit hard by Godzilla next week and the again with X-Men, if it drops that bad with no competition there's no way it can pick up legs with competition in May.

 

How badly will Godzilla hit it? Even Thor 2 which is the closest comparison in terms of competition, only fell 61% against a 155M opener in weekend 3. Godzilla is looking at a 75M OW, I don't think TASM2 will collapse hard with 75M of competition, at least not more than 55% or so. 

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I was too old for it but I never got Power Rangers

don't worry about it, when you're not a 6 year old there's pretty much nothing there for you.

 

Except the movie, which has Ivan Ooze. A character on the level of Darth Vader or Michael Corleone.

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Of course the geezer on the forum liked this post. I am shocked, Tele. Truly shocked. :lol:

He has it set so he gets a notification everytime someone shakes their fist at some young shit and tells it to get off their forum lawn. Just so he can give it an automatic like.

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How badly will Godzilla hit it? Even Thor 2 which is the closest comparison in terms of competition, only fell 61% against a 155M opener in weekend 3. Godzilla is looking at a 75M OW, I don't think TASM2 will collapse hard with 75M of competition, at least not more than 55% or so. 

 

Thor and CF were able to coexist somewhat due to Thor leaning more heavily towards male (62%) and CF more female (59%,) at least on their OWs. I dont think Spidey (61% male) and Godzilla are going to diverge that much in their audience demo.

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Thor and CF were able to coexist somewhat due to Thor leaning more heavily towards male (62%) and CF more female (59%,) at least on their OWs. I dont think Spidey (61% male) and Godzilla are going to diverge that much in their audience demo.

 

41% male audience for CF still translates to 63.5M from a male audience. Even if Godzilla opens to 80M and has 75% male audience, it still will be only 56M. Just saying that even though the demos overlap, it does not mean that competition will be significantly higher.

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Only one movie has ever missed $200m after opening to $75m or more: Wolverine Origins. Two others managed to miss the mark after grossing over $70m OW: The Simpsons and Fast & Furious. Ironically, both of those are regarded as big success stories. So legs aren't everything.

 

If we're looking at films that earned similar amounts OW that also followed up franchise entries with mixed reception, both Harry Potter 3 and PotC4 would suffice. On the good side, both of those earned between $240m and $250m, even though they were down from the previous entries. However, HP3 was very well regarded, which probably mitigated a lot of the potential loss. And PotC4 opened over a holiday. Both also were later in the summer, so they had some weekday benefit that Spidey isn't likely to see.

 

So while Spidey isn't likely to get quite to those heights, it probably isn't going to sink super fast, either. The reception is quite a bit better than Wolverine Origins had, after all. It's probably going to end up somewhere between 210 and 230.

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In recent weeks even new openers have managed double-digits (like, as you pointed out, CAP2). That didn't use to be the case -- openers had single-digit gains or stayed flat. I'm not saying this jump is bad for TASM2... not at all. But if everyone else is jumping 30-40% and it jumps 22% then it's basically following along what other openers have done.

 

That might be a fair assessment if you were comparing apples to apples here. But for instance the tenth place movie, "Bears", had a whopping 54.9% increase from Monday. Sounds impressive until you realize not much had to be done to get there. It's only playing in 1,790 theaters. On Monday it averaged a lowly $66.00 per theater. On Tuesday it averaged $102.00. I hate to tell you this but it didn't take too many pre-school birthday parties to reach that number. As Billy Preston said, "Nothing from nothing leaves nothing."  Spider-man sits in 4,324 theaters. It's going to be take allot more effort to move that percentage dial on that many theaters. Even the second place movie, TOW, was more than three times behind ASM2 playing in 3,238 theaters. So 22% for a movie playing in this many theaters is quite good. Give me Spider-man's $1,443.00 per theater average. It spends better than your Bear's 54.9 % debacle.

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That might be a fair assessment if you were comparing apples to apples here. But for instance the tenth place movie, "Bears", had a whopping 54.9% increase from Monday. Sounds impressive until you realize not much had to be done to get there. It's only playing in 1,790 theaters. On Monday it averaged a lowly $66.00 per theater. On Tuesday it averaged $102.00. I hate to tell you this but it didn't take too many pre-school birthday parties to reach that number. As Billy Preston said, "Nothing from nothing leaves nothing."  Spider-man sits in 4,324 theaters. It's going to be take allot more effort to move that percentage dial on that many theaters. Even the second place movie, TOW, was more than three times behind ASM2 playing in 3,238 theaters. So 22% for a movie playing in this many theaters is quite good. Give me Spider-man's $1,443.00 per theater average. It spends better than your Bear's 54.9 % debacle.

 

You're the one bringing up BEARS, not me. :)

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I liked it also Tele.

On this one: "I'm with you till the end of the line"

 

Power Rangers is a poor mans Voltron, lion or vehicle. I'll throw in Albegas (gladiator Voltron) even. 

 

Voltron!!! Form blazing sword!

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