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Wknd Estimates: Godzilla - 93.2M

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The IMAX share is ridiculous. The next IMAX movie is Maleficent in 2 weeks and then Edge of Tomorrow in 3 weeks. WB marketing needs a raise for this movie, since WB had a stake in future movies they went all out and made it a must watch, poor poor Pacific Rim.

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I must say, although I'd be very impressed if it achieved the biggest opening of the year, I'm actually more satisfied that its OW ended up between Cap 2 and TASM 2. (Below TASM 2 would've been disappointing)

How can you say that?

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I don't think it's the critics. It's the quality and how the auds responded to it.

But how do audiences determine quality during OW?Twitter, WOM, or critics?Audiences seem savvier than ever. I wouldn't be surprised if most research their movie going decisions to some degree.
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But how do audiences determine quality during OW?Twitter, WOM, or critics?Audiences seem savvier than ever. I wouldn't be surprised if most research their movie going decisions to some degree.

 

They go off the trailers, TV spots, etc. If they like what they see, they go. Simple as that.

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But how do audiences determine quality during OW?Twitter, WOM, or critics?Audiences seem savvier than ever. I wouldn't be surprised if most research their movie going decisions to some degree.

 

Ha ha. Probably their own critique? Some movies are greatly praised by critics and still fail to make money.

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They go off the trailers, TV spots, etc. If they like what they see, they go. Simple as that.

 

 

For an original film there is much more "research done"..

 

Sequel usually a set audience will go to watch no matter what. 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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BOM

Friday $38,525,000

Saturday $32,165,000
Sunday $22,515,000 -30%

 

 

Smart move by WB unlike Sony to just go for normal Sunday drop. :D Also Rth only 135K off on Saturday estimate.  :worthy:

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Just feel calling the 3D share "amazing" when it's inflated by such a big IMAX # is a stretch. Regardless, it's a terrific opening.

 

Should have I added 'relatively?' I compared it with recent 3D movies.

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So will it get 250 million or more around 230 million? 

 

Anything could happen from now on. I will compare Godzilla with Pirates of the Caribbean: On Strander Tides for the following reasons:

a) They had the same CinemaScore (B+)

b ) They both have an opening weekend between $90-95M

c) They opened on the weekend before Memorial Day weekend

d) They have similar post-release competition: Pirates 4 had Hangover 2 (comedy, not 3D), Kung Fu Panda 2 (family film, 3D) and X-Men: First Class (superhero, not 3D). Godzilla has Blended and A Million Ways to Die in the West (two lower-profile comedies, both not 3D), Maleficent (arguably a family film, 3D) and X-Men: Days of Future Past (superhero, 3D)

 

Pirates 4 had a OW-to-total ratio of 241.1 / 90.15 = 2.67. A similar multiplier will give Godzilla a gross of 93.2 * 2.67 = $248.8M

However, the negative buzz for Godzilla seems to be more abundant, i.e. the ones who didn't like it seem to be more vocal about it on the internet (indicated by the bigger-than-expected Friday-to-Saturday drop). Since this one is driven by fanboys more than Pirates 4 and since fanboys use the internet more than any other demographic group for film reception, I think the multiplier will be slightly lower. Godzilla will also lose more 3D screens in the coming weeks and that will continue due to Edge of Tomorrow and How to Train Your Dragon 2. A mulitplier between 2.4x and 2.6x will give it $223M-$243M and I believe it will end up within this range.

Edited by Quigley
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