Sun#s pg 230...Wknd Est: DOFP: 91M, Godzilla - 31.4M, Blended - 14.2M , NB - 13.9M [NO SPOILERS]

[baumer]

After reading Godzilla's Friday numbers, Ken was like:

 

[alisson23]

Poor spider

[baumer]

Poor spider

 

What film is that you speak of?  I'm not even aware there is a film about a Spider playing right now.  Did they release a sequel to Arachnophobia when I wasn't looking?

[Sam]

Kinda hope X-Men will perform normally over the weekend and fall in the 90M range. Breaking the trend is no fun, you need to add and fuel the trend.

[Lordmandeep]

lol ASM2 in this release date should have easily been a massive domestic hit but lol no way for it. 

[lab276]

How do you calculate your monthly figures?  Is it based on top 10...15....what number?

All up, currently 2014 is at 611.3m (from BOM, everything made from 1st May to 22nd May including holdovers)And there are multiple ways: about 60m made for the top 10 this Friday. Looking at past MD weeks (7 days) the top 10 Friday multiplier to the rest of the week (since 2005) has ranged from 5.4 in 2012 to 4.11 in 2006. I don't think 2012 is a valid comparison in this case because MIB3 was less frontloaded than DOFP is likely to be. The worst case (2006) gives 246.6m for the week, 857.9m for the total. If Maleficent and Million Ways perform well enough (combined Nemo level), there should be around 120m made Friday Saturday for 977.9m.2007 (4.56) would be best case, that gives 273.6m 884.9m and 1004.9m.Or you could look at calendars (2003 and 2008 have the same calendar). ATM they are at 594.3m and 566.6m respectively, overall they made 955.8m and 948.1m respectively. Multipliers then are 1.608 and 1.673. That would give 2014 983m and 1022.7mIf I'm overestimating Maleficent and Million Ways, under 1b is likely and 2012 is impossible.

[RyneOh1040]

Very good number for X-Men:DOFP.  Would love to see it hit 100 but either way a big success, close to doubling First Class OW.  Having seen the film, I think if you are a fan of the trilogy and First Class there is no way you can leave disappointed.  Really, really well done.  The only thing I DIDN'T understand was this, hopefully someone can help me out:

Okay, I understood the time lines and how things were rewritten etc. My only question is, IF Mystique was originally captured and her blood harvested for the sentinels, wouldn't or shouldn't Trask Industries have existed in the original trilogy? Or shouldn't Mystique have still been captured etc? That was the only part of the storyline I couldn't make sense of.

 

Some unfortunate holds, namely Godzilla.  But still a success on all fronts.  Solid hold for ASM2 in the face of X-Men.  That drop solidifies a total in the 210-215 range.

[alisson23]

What film is that you speak of? I'm not even aware there is a film about a Spider playing right now. Did they release a sequel to Arachnophobia when I wasn't looking?

Loool

[CoolioD1]

Kinda hope X-Men will perform normally over the weekend and fall in the 90M range. Breaking the trend is no fun, you need to add and fuel the trend.

agreed. it'd be funny. boring, but funny. I hope Transformers and how to train your dragon can keep it going.

[alisson23]

When schools go close in USA and Canada?

[Sam]

agreed. it'd be funny. boring, but funny. I hope Transformers and how to train your dragon can keep it going.

It would make it one of the more memorable things we will remember about 2014 years from now.

[BobbyJohn]

lol ASM2 in this release date should have easily been a massive domestic hit but lol no way for it. 

Zilla should've just moved a week earlier with such weak Spidey, but it's not like it could've been easily predicted. Studio probalby thought it would be safer close to X instead

[#ED]

I rather not. No 100M OW opener sucks.

[lab276]

It would make it one of the more memorable things we will remember about 2014 years from now.

Kind of similar thing happened in 2011, Fast Five, Pirates, Hangover 2 and TF3 opened between 85m and 98m. No 100m opener till Potter.

[kayumanggi]

Very good number for X-Men:DOFP.  Would love to see it hit 100 but either way a big success, close to doubling First Class OW.  Having seen the film, I think if you are a fan of the trilogy and First Class there is no way you can leave disappointed.  Really, really well done.  The only thing I DIDN'T understand was this, hopefully someone can help me out:

Okay, I understood the time lines and how things were rewritten etc. My only question is, IF Mystique was originally captured and her blood harvested for the sentinels, wouldn't or shouldn't Trask Industries have existed in the original trilogy? Or shouldn't Mystique have still been captured etc? That was the only part of the storyline I couldn't make sense of.

 

Some unfortunate holds, namely Godzilla.  But still a success on all fronts.  Solid hold for ASM2 in the face of X-Men.  That drop solidifies a total in the 210-215 range.

 

They didn't get much of her blood. They just got a tiny drop from the pavement where she got shot. TRASK may have stopped operating after Trask got arrested. And even if it continued, I assume the Sentinels program wouldn't have pushed through.

[alisson23]

I rather not. No 100M OW opener sucks.

I just think Blended should give it's 10M 3-day for X-men has 100M+ this weekend 3-day

[Sam]

I rather not. No 100M OW opener sucks.

Don't worry, just for summer. We all know there's one coming on November 7th

[alisson23]

Don't worry, just for summer. We all know there's one coming on November 7th

Mockingjay part 1 changed it's date for november 7th?

[baumer]

When schools go close in USA and Canada?

 

College/university is out in Canada already.  High school is done here (Canada) last week of June.

[Quigley]

No $100M opener would be remarkable and funny (besides there's no movie I really care about during the summer - the only one was Cap 2 which overperformed anyway). And no, Interstellar is not currently headed for more than $100M on OW. Maybe marketing closer to the release date will help but I still don't think it will get to $100M. Inception, Gravity (similar movies) and Thor 2 and Skyfall (similar release date) all made way below $100M and this one isn't even a sequel. It just won't.

 

What I really can't wait for is Mockingjay Part 1. It will be really cool if it earns more than the second one ($424M). I think the only other franchise that managed to increase with each new instalment was Lord of the Rings.

 

[update:] A previous version said Catching Fire instead of Mockingjay Part 1. Soz for the confusion.

Edited May 24, 2014 by Quigley