Official Weekend Estimates: Maleficent - 70M, X-Men - 32.6M, A Million Ways - 17.1M, Godzilla - 12.2M

[Dementeleus]

Interstellar. 205m domestic. Bank on it.

[reddevil18]

People love talking about WOM and all, but I'm coming to the conclusion that there are certain franchises or genres that have a set fan base but need something really unique or exceptional to break out beyond that. The core group goes to see it, but the movie never really expands past that. It doesn't really have to do with toxic WOM or anything, but there's not enough there to specifically grab someone who wouldn't normally see it. So you get large (or larger-than-expected) openings but weak legs afterwards.

 

Obviously GODZILLA is one of these; the X-franchise is another. You could argue that the first 4 Fast/Furious movies were too, until they managed to break out with FAST FIVE.

I think the Fast franchise expanded its fanbase, but it didn't really break out that much, domestically. I mean, its high is in line with the X franchise. Overseas is where it truly expanded, and that is happening with DOFP now...Otherwise, I agree.

[CJohn]

As much as I hope people keep expectations in check for Interstellar, it is definitely a dark horse contender. If Nolan lives up to himself, I won't surprised to see it in the top two of the year domestically. Maybe even over MJ1. Highly speculative, of course.

Interstellar over 400M? No way. No way. It is just not happening, IMO.

[reddevil18]

As much as I hope people keep expectations in check for Interstellar, it is definitely a dark horse contender. If Nolan lives up to himself, I won't surprised to see it in the top two of the year domestically. Maybe even over MJ1. Highly speculative, of course.

God...Over MJ1? Keeping expectations in check, dude. 

[Dementeleus]

I think the Fast franchise expanded its fanbase, but it didn't really break out that much, domestically. I mean, its high is in line with the X franchise. Overseas is where it truly expanded, and that is happening with DOFP now...Otherwise, I agree.

 

Yes, domestically, it increased its ceiling, but it still had a relatively "weak" multiplier.

[redfirebird2008]

People love talking about WOM and all, but I'm coming to the conclusion that there are certain franchises or genres that have a set fan base but need something really unique or exceptional to break out beyond that. The core group goes to see it, but the movie never really expands past that. It doesn't really have to do with toxic WOM or anything, but there's not enough there to specifically grab someone who wouldn't normally see it. So you get large (or larger-than-expected) openings but weak legs afterwards.

 

Obviously GODZILLA is one of these; the X-franchise is another.

 

Godzilla is obviously one of those? There have been 2 Godzilla movies made by Hollywood and neither one of them had strong WOM, so it's pretty hard to make the statement you just did. It's not like GINO98 or GZ2014 had X2, XFC, or DOFP level reception and still had bad legs.

[AJG]

QUICK QUESTIONIf me and my buddy are the only ones expected to turn up for a late night showing (EoT), will the cinema cancel?

[reddevil18]

That's until the king of MARVEL Movie's, The AVENGERS 2 comes out next May and wipes the floor with X-MEN beyond the fanbase.. Next May is going to be EPIC.. Absolutely EPIC..

Yes, yes, we all know TA2 will be gigantic. But it doesn't really have anything to do with this, does it?

[John Marston]

sorry but Godzilla' second weekend drop over Memorial Day where drops should be softened clearly shows what is happening here.  Of course some movies will be frontloaded, but even something like Potter manages to stabilize afterwards. Godzilla is just going to keep dropping and dropping every week, like something like Ang Lee's Hulk 

[Claire of Themyscira]

[reddevil18]

QUICK QUESTIONIf me and my buddy are the only ones expected to turn up for a late night showing (EoT), will the cinema cancel?

No, they will play a gay porno.

[The Panda]

The opening scene being Kal el's mother giving birth to him reminds me of what pain I was in store for when I first watched them butcher superman.

[Shawn Robbins]

People love talking about WOM and all, but I'm coming to the conclusion that there are certain franchises or genres that have a set fan base but need something really unique or exceptional to break out beyond that. The core group goes to see it, but the movie never really expands past that. It doesn't really have to do with toxic WOM or anything, but there's not enough there to specifically grab someone who wouldn't normally see it. So you get large (or larger-than-expected) openings but weak legs afterwards.

 

Obviously GODZILLA is one of these; the X-franchise is another. You could argue that the first 4 Fast/Furious movies were too, until they managed to break out with FAST FIVE.

 

Agreed. And even then, I don't think Fast has broken out that much. Even Five was pretty front-loaded by standards outside the franchise.

 

It's really a shame if that's the case with X-Men now. Singer, Kinberg, and Fox pulled off a small miracle and revived that franchise with something really special in DOFP. I'd argue it's at least on par with anything Marvel itself has ever put out.

 

We shouldn't forget that it's still performing well above most peoples' expectations. The goal posts have moved drastically on this movie compared to six months ago.

[Claire of Themyscira]

That's until the king of MARVEL Movie's, The AVENGERS 2 comes out next May and wipes the floor with X-MEN beyond the fanbase.. Next May is going to be EPIC.. Absolutely EPIC..

We know.

 

You've said that since TA came out.

 

Bye, Felicia.

[AJG]

No, they will play a gay porno.

Will it be in 3D?

[CJohn]

QUICK QUESTIONIf me and my buddy are the only ones expected to turn up for a late night showing (EoT), will the cinema cancel?

I doubt since in that way most portuguese theaters wouldn't open during the week and most of the weekend 

Edited May 31, 2014 by CJohn

[Dementeleus]

Godzilla is obviously one of those? There have been 2 Godzilla movies made by Hollywood and neither one of them had strong WOM, so it's pretty hard to make the statement you just did. It's not like GINO98 or GZ2014 had X2, XFC, or DOFP level reception and still had bad legs.

 

I'm saying WOM is relatively pointless for these sorts of movies. PACIFIC RIM, CLOVERFIELD, etc. There's a core base and an inherent ceiling, unless the movie is something truly exceptional or unique.

[Mattrek]

QUICK QUESTIONIf me and my buddy are the only ones expected to turn up for a late night showing (EoT), will the cinema cancel?

Nope, I've been to shows with only me and my friend before.

[reddevil18]

Will it be in 3D?

And smell-o-vision.

[The Panda]

Russell Crowe does a good job for what he's given, easily one of the best part of the movie.