Weekend Estimates | TF4 - 100M (Paramount sticking to 100M for the Wknd Est)| More Numbers on Page 1

[baumer]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say Maleficent beats TF4 DOM now (and probably every summer movie besides DOFP). 95m-ish OW for TF4 and a 2.25x multi sound about right. So that's around 213m. Maleficent will do at least 215m. Crap beats crap and we all lose so who cares? I'm going to sit back and enjoy the shitstorm.

Why would it have such a low multiplier? This isn't Twilight.plus with the American holiday next weekend the Canadian holiday on Tuesday the gross is going to be pushing 180 million dollars by the end of next Sunday. 250 seems like a pretty good that to me maybe a little bit less but it's going to do more than 220 that's for sure

[kayumanggi]

Why many of you want a disastrous summer? lol

[MovieMan89]

Have you guys been totally tuning this summer out at the box office? I mean it's easy to do this year I know, but 2.2-2.3x multis are the new range for the big openers. TASM2 and Godzilla will both be in that range, and Godzilla even had a Holiday 2nd weekend to help it out like TF4. And DOFP probably would have landed in that multi range too if great WOM hadn't kicked in. So unless you guys are expecting great WOM to kick in for TF4, I say again no reason to expect anything over a 2.4x multi.

Edited June 29, 2014 by MovieMan89

[Mulder]

Have you guys been totally tuning this summer out at the box office? I mean it's easy to do this year I know, but 2.2-2.3x multis are the new thing for the big openers. TASM2 and Godzilla will both be in that range, and Godzilla even had a Holiday 2nd weekend to help it out like TF4. And DOFP probably would have landed in that multi range too if great WOM hadn't kicked in. So unless you guys are expecting great WOM to kick in for TF4, I say again no reason to expect anything over a 2.4x multi.

Godzilla had direct competition and mixed WoM. TF: AoE doesn't have the sooner and probably not the latter either.

[miketheavenger]

I know that this is off-topic, but this is my 100th post and I also now have exactly 100 likes. Time to celebrate!  

[Claire of Themyscira]

Exactly. There is literally nothing else to see for a week that hasn't:t already been seen going by the recent holds for DOFP, Maleficent, EOT.HTTYD2 isn't fulfilling it for families. 22JS already in the teens, and TF has always done well with them. TF pull in the older crowd. It has pretty much all four demos.What are they gonna see? DUFE? It's horror. It won't be direct competition.

[MovieMan89]

Godzilla had direct competition and mixed WoM. TF: AoE doesn't have the sooner and probably not the latter either.

O RLY? I remember when you were so vehemently telling me most people were loving Godzilla and legs would be just fine.

[Magic]

I don't think a Transformers film can have bad wom. It's just explosions and banging and shit. Michael Bay will provide that every time. There's no real way you can disappoint most of that audience.

[kayumanggi]

How many summer movies have you watched?

[CJohn]

I still think it will cross 100M. At least the official estimate is surely gonna be 100M.

[RthDeadWov]

China money. The TF franchise isn't going to stop anytime soon.

One thing with China even though GBO these days are quite high, studios get very little rentals out of the market China keeps the bulk of it, so even if a film has GBO  over 100m they will get far less out of it then most of the other major markets

[keysersoze123]

One thing with China even though GBO these days are quite high, studios get very little rentals out of the market China keeps the bulk of it, so even if a film has GBO  over 100m they will get far less out of it then most of the other major markets

 

tell that to Firedeep. He thinks studios get as much in china as the rest. I remember you giving a break up on how studios do in various markets. Can you post them again.

[Mulder]

O RLY? I remember when you were so vehemently telling me most people were loving Godzilla and legs would be just fine.

Obviously that hasn't happened. So yeah. Rebuke my actual argument and drop the Ad Hominems.

[Magic]

How many summer movies have you watched?

Who are you asking?

[MovieMan89]

I still think it will cross 100M. At least the official estimate is surely gonna be 100M.

Wouldn't be surprised if the studio puts out a 100m estimate just to grab the headlines. Also wouldn't be surprised if estimates are as much as 4-5m too high for it. After all 22JS was just recently over-predicted by like 3m in the estimates.

[fmpro]

It cant reach 100 mill with that saturday right?

[Fake]

Have you guys been totally tuning this summer out at the box office? I mean it's easy to do this year I know, but 2.2-2.3x multis are the new range for the big openers. TASM2 and Godzilla will both be in that range, and Godzilla even had a Holiday 2nd weekend to help it out like TF4. And DOFP probably would have landed in that multi range too if great WOM hadn't kicked in. So unless you guys are expecting great WOM to kick in for TF4, I say again no reason to expect anything over a 2.4x multi.

Summer weekdays?TF2 grossed 40.2m on its first Saturday and grossed 234m thereafter. If TF4 follows TF2, it will gross another 186m, meaning a 260m finish. Probably it will drop a bit harder, but I think it is on track for 250m currently.

[Fake]

It cant reach 100 mill with that saturday right?

It can, with fudging.

[keysersoze123]

<<Edit>> wrong thread.

Edited June 29, 2014 by keysersoze123

[MovieMan89]

Summer weekdays?TF2 grossed 40.2m on its first Saturday and grossed 234m thereafter. If TF4 follows TF2, it will gross another 186m, meaning a 260m finish.Probably it will drop a bit harder, but I think it is on track for 250m currently.

How on earth is that a good comparison given TF2 had already burned off 3 full days of demand by its first saturday? TF2 would have had a 160m+ OW easily if it had opened on Friday given what its massive total through its first weekend was.

Edited June 29, 2014 by MovieMan89