Weekend Estimates | TF4 - 100M (Paramount sticking to 100M for the Wknd Est)| More Numbers on Page 1

[grim22]

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[Mango]

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Woah.

[Blackout]

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I'm really offended by that tbh 

[a2k]

Am I missing something? How is this opening that much better than say...TASM2? TF3 made nearly 100m more than TASM DOM.

 

TF3 made 43.2m (including Tuesday previews). This one came in a bit lower after 3 years of inflation.Same happened with ASM2. ASM1 made 35.9m(including Monday previews). ASM2 opened a bit lower to 35.1m after 2 years of inflation.

 

So there is fatigue. But TF franshise has put in such huge numbers that a slightly smaller od from previous one still is >40m.

Edited June 28, 2014 by a2k

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

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*POOF*

[Jawa]

I don't think it will either but Catching Fire wasn't supposed to either and look at how that ended up. Don't count out THG franchise. 

 

Two reasons:

 

1) The second to last HP and Twilight films underperformed the previous film.

 

2) Mockingjay sucks. Granted, it's more the second half of the book where it goes to shit, but the first half is no peach either.

[filmlover]

Did anyone honestly think 2014 was going to be anything other than lackluster? I guarantee Mockingjay doesn't hit 400m either. Guarantee.

Seriously? Captain America 2 and The LEGO Movie both surpassed expectations and did over $250M before the summer. And winter looks really strong this year. Just because this summer is, as expected, not exactly setting the world on fire doesn't mean it's doom and gloom for the whole year.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

TF3 made 43.2m (including Tuesday previews). This one came in a bit lower after 3 years of inflation.

Same happened with ASM2. ASM1 made 35.9m(including Monday previews). ASM2 opened a bit lower to 35.1m after 2 years of inflation.

 

So there is fatigue. But TF franshise has put in such huge numbers that a slightly smaller od from previous one still is >40m.

 

FTFY.

 

TF3 opened on a Wed. This is a sizable drop, not just a "bit lower".

[BK007]

You think it's better than First Class? Avengers? TDKr? No way.

 

Did you really use TDKR? lol

[Jawa]

Seriously? Captain America 2 and The LEGO Movie both surpassed expectations and did over $250M before the summer. And winter looks really strong this year. Just because this summer is, as expected, not exactly setting the world on fire doesn't mean it's doom and gloom for the whole year.

 

Both of them did well, but there haven't been any 300m mega-blockbusters, and I'm willing to bet Mockingjay will be the only one. And if I'm predicting doom and gloom now, then not much has changed, because I was saying basically the same thing a year ago.

Edited June 28, 2014 by Jawa

[RTX]

Transformers movies could benefit from less embarrassing female characters.

 

No. A half-baked love story is all it takes to bring in girls.

Edited June 28, 2014 by RTX

[Mango]

Two reasons:

 

1) The second to last HP and Twilight films underperformed the previous film.

 

2) Mockingjay sucks. Granted, it's more the second half of the book where it goes to shit, but the first half is no peach either.

 

I agree, I have it doing $360 million. Still, I don't think it is a guarantee to do under $400 million, as well as CF did.

[a2k]

FTFY.

 

TF3 opened on a Wed. This is a sizable drop, not just a "bit lower".

 

For a series like TF, a summer Wed OD or a summer Fri OD does not make much difference. Fans will rush out on OD no matter what the day, especially during summer holidays.

Edited June 28, 2014 by a2k

[Jack Nevada]

Just watched Mission Impossible 4. Sweet-ass movie. Great action, great team dynamic, great musical score, it's just great. One of the best blockbusters of the new decade.

[Chewy]

No. A half-baked love story is all takes to bring in girls.

 

Good post.

[Spidey Freak]

Ugh, the misleading thread title is such a horrible tease. I thought 41.6M was the estimate for the entire weekend! And then was cockblocked by reality.

[Jack Nevada]

Good post.

Girls are stupid.

[Mango]

Just watched Mission Impossible 4. Sweet-ass movie. Great action, great team dynamic, great musical score, it's just great. One of the best blockbusters of the new decade.

 

Dat Brad Bird effect

[TheMovieman]

So... I guess that 18% RT score means bupkis. Shocking.

[filmlover]

Both of them did well, but there haven't been any 300m mega-blockbusters, and I'm willing to bet Mockingjay will be the only one. And if I'm predicting doom and gloom now, then not much has changed, because I was saying basically the same thing a year ago.

Just because there hasn't been a big surprise blockbuster doesn't mean it's a "shitty" year. Things always looked off with this summer, between the odd scheduling and the lack of a single "oh my god I just HAVE to see that" title. Winter already looks booming (Mockingjay, Interstellar, Big Hero 6, The Hobbit, Penguins of Madagascar, Annie, and probably Night at the Museum 3 are all basically locked for at least $100M, and there are a bunch of other titles with strong potential too), plus I think Gone Girl could be big if everything comes together.