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Friday Estimates: SH2 $15m, Alv $8m, MI4 $4m

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Anyways, if these predicts/projections hold true, it looks to be a very disappointing Winter.Hopefully, Christmas will help boost Alvin's & Sherlock's 2nd weekend and give it some strong legs, but usually sequels don't have very strong legs unless they're really, really good.

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I wish I'd had the guts to make a club for Sherlock, it's opening is just what I thought it'd be given the good but not great reception of the first film and the extremely tired marketing.

You should have made a club, though it may have been locked considering how high all the predicts were.I remember making a Rise of the Apes club for >$200M DOM that got locked instantly, but it only missed by about 11% of what it needed.
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I don't like doing this, but I did call this with SH2. I said it was a prime candidate to drop significanty because the first really wasn't that well liked. I think Alvin fell for the same reason. The first Chipmunks movie was well liked, the second was horrid. And both are suffering because of their shitty predecessors.

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It does seem that out of the movies that really came below expectations, the vast majority of them were sequels. However, I don't think it's true to say people are tired of sequels in general. We're seeing it right now with MI4's impressive opening.

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It does seem that out of the movies that really came below expectations, the vast majority of them were sequels. However, I don't think it's true to say people are tired of sequels in general. We're seeing it right now with MI4's impressive opening.

MI4's opening is limited not until next weekend we will know for sure.
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I think 2011 is just the year of failed sequels, no matter how good their predecessors were. Look at KFP2 or Happy Feet 2 and Scre4m.

KFP2, Cars 2 and Happy Feet 2 were all in 3D. That is a very expensive trip to the movies to take kids. Especially when the previous films were not in 3D. Parents only have so much money.As for Scream, it was just a bad idea. The last film came out a generation ago and even though the film was fantastic, there just wasn;t a market for it.
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  • Founder / Operator

I disagree that Holmes wasn't well-liked, but perhaps it wasn't liked quite enough to demand a sequel...debatable.To be honest, this is one of those times during the box office that I think challenges our preconceptions of how films perform and why they underperform. The economy is in a perpetual state of ambiguity and ticket prices just keep getting worse each year. This is a market-based and economical issue we're seeing affect movies now, I feel. Holmes 2 is some of the best proof we've seen yet.

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I disagree that Holmes wasn't well-liked, but perhaps it wasn't liked quite enough to demand a sequel...debatable.To be honest, this is one of those times during the box office that I think challenges our preconceptions of how films perform and why they underperform. The economy is in a perpetual state of ambiguity and ticket prices just keep getting worse each year. This is a market-based and economical issue we're seeing affect movies now, I feel. Holmes 2 is some of the best proof we've seen yet.

Statistically, you are right Shawn, Holmes did seem to be well liked. But I don't think it was well liked enough that it created more fans than the ones that came out for the first. Personally I found it to be a bore and if people like me, casual film goers, felt that way, then naturally it was due for a fall. I don't think it is the kind of film that really built a lot of momentum. So the fall doesn;t surprise me.
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Teens only download movies now. Why would they spent money when they can see the movies for free (my friends usually say this to me).

While it's true (even though illegal new releases on the Net usually have low-quality picture & audio), it was just as true, say, 4 years ago and no one was talking of a slump back then."Nicely saved" lol Edited by Bitcher
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The problem is that 4 years ago teens still liked to go to theaters. Now they just don't go with the exception of the event movies like Potter, Twilight and Transformers.Now they spent their money on other things. Or just prefer to stay at home doing nothing. Teens are getting worst for every year that passes.

Edited by CJohn
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My friends prefer to spent 10€ in drinks and going to the disco than in a movie, because they can see the movie for free at home. Good or bad quality, they don't care.

Edited by CJohn
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