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eXtacy

Weekend Estimates: GotG 17.6m | TMNT 16.8m | If I Stay 16.4m | WGST 9.0m | Sin City 6.5m

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Sucks. Still think it will do a little better than 70 million.

 

It is always a possibility if the humor hit the - in a lot of Asian countries often totally other way to feel / sense humor - their way of humor too. GotG had varying success in different Asian markets, but rather good ones in Europe (as far as released) and again from record breaking to middle in South America

 

WOM is very important, but see: what is humor / funny, .... wait and see how especially China see it and I am really curious about Japan as well. Beside their rather big love for Spider-Man they usually prefer animated/non-live action movies, if it's about action-comedy-and-so-on mixes, but there are exceptions.

 

Same counts for Germany and Italy as well, can be big, but in no way is a guarantee that it will be big. Depends also on the quality of the dubbing (the German one doesn't look that good to me)

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It is always a possibility if the humor hit the - in a lot of Asian countries often totally other way to feel / sense humor - their way of humor too. GotG had varying success in different Asian markets, but rather good ones in Europe (as far as released) and again from record breaking to middle in South America

 

WOM is very important, but see: what is humor / funny, .... wait and see how especially China see it and I am really curious about Japan as well. Beside their rather big love for Spider-Man they usually prefer animated/non-live action movies, if it's about action-comedy-and-so-on mixes, but there are exceptions.

 

Same counts for Germany and Italy as well, can be big, but in no way is a guarantee that it will be big. Depends also on the quality of the dubbing (the German one doesn't look that good to me)

The riskiest one I see is Japan. The adults are the driving force and if not an established brand (read Spiderman), a comic book movie clearly aimed at kids will have a hard time to break out.

Edited by James
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2014 WORLDWIDE GROSSES Rank Title (click to view) Studio*

  Worldwide Domestic / % Overseas / % 1 Transformers: Age of Extinction Par. $1,054.9 $243.8 23.1% $811.1 76.9% 2 Maleficent BV $747.6 $237.6 31.8% $510.0 68.2% 3 X-Men: Days of Future Past Fox $744.7 $232.8 31.3% $511.9 68.7% 4 Captain America: The Winter Soldier BV $714.1 $259.8 36.4% $454.3 63.6% 5 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Sony $708.3 $202.9 28.6% $505.4 71.4% 6 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fox $540.9 $204.0 37.7% $336.9 62.3% 7 How to Train Your Dragon 2 Fox $539.8 $172.1 31.9% $367.7 68.1% 8 Godzilla (2014) WB $507.9 $200.6 39.5% $307.3 60.5% 9 Rio 2 Fox $495.6 $131.5 26.5% $364.2 73.5% 10 Guardians of the Galaxy BV $489.5 $251.9 51.5% $237.6 48.5% 11 The LEGO Movie WB $468.0 $257.7 55.1% $210.3 44.9%

 

Really curious to see where TF4 will be after the OS update :D

Edited by James
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Your fanboyism is getting annoying really fast. 3 out of your every 4 posts insult another movie. 

 

His been warned....will probably be warned again today...won't be long before he's suspended.

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Your fanboyism is getting annoying really fast. 3 out of your every 4 posts insult another movie. 

 

Marvelitis /ˈmɑː®v(ə)laɪtɪs/ (noun) - is inflammation of the brain most commonly caused by excessive Marvel fanboyism.

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It seems like Godzilla is the only movie that bad WOM destroyed lol

Maleficent didn't have bad WOM, it is loved by pretty much liked by everyone I know and like noctis said it's very loved by the female demo unlike these ones. 

 

TF4: 100M OW & 243,8M DOM = 2,44

ASM2: 91,6M OW & 202,9M DOM = 2,22

GODZ: 93,2M OW & 200,6M DOM = 2,15

 

Maleficent had great run and legs because it is loved. 

 

MAL: 69.4M OW & 237,6M DOM = 3,42

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According to the China specialists at the international area here in the forum, it got a very bad release date => they think $50m till $70m.

 

They have also a restriction in China about how long a foreign movie is even allowed there. In this week they hindered certain movies also via screen numbers.

China isn't happy about to have to give away foreign exchange, so if something like Transformers happens... not good for the next foreign movies (including delaying the censorship time to get worse release dates and more)

 

 

But from what I hear it's release date is not that good. Any in hell would it be bigger than TF/IM?

 

Transformers gross has really made some people think that Chinese numbers are limitless now.  Transformers was the perfect storm for China...Chinese money, Chinese stars, Chinese local, Chinese support and the love of Transformers, period.  I severely under estimated GOTG's gross here but imo, even without knowing what the Chinese posters say at this forum, I'd say a 50 million finish would be outstanding.  

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TMNT looks like a lock to outgross Dragon 2 domestically. I'm shocked, a combination of a movie which people enjoy and choosing a good release date is working wonders. TMNT has a chance at a 3 multiplier. Safe to say no one saw that coming.

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