Blankments Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 The Big Short Bridge of Spies Carol The Hateful Eight Inside Out Joy The Revenant Spotlight Steve Jobs Alternates: 1. The Martian 2. The Danish Girl 3. Trumbo 4. Room 5. Mad Max: Fury Road Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 (edited) 13 hours ago, stripe said: The big short, Hateful eight and In the heart of the sea are still less probable than Steve Jobs, Inside Out or Carol. RT is not the only indicator to look at, and 85% is solid enough. There are a lot of BP contenders with a 85% RT score. Anyways, I am also very doubtful about SJ chances at this point. steve jobs audience reception mixed and box office was a high profile failure, only $15m domestic. heart of sea and big short will have better box office approx $60-70m for both with an ensemble cast. inside out is pitching for animated category not BP candidate this year. Carol too dark and indie. Ditto Son of Saul. Edited November 7, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Number of experts predicting a win/nomination on Gold Derby: Spotlight: 11/21 The Martian: 5/20 Joy: 4/18 Carol: 2/17 Steve Jobs: 0/21 Bridge of Spies: 0/20 Room: 0/19 The Revenant: 0/18 Brooklyn: 0/14 The Hateful Eight: 0/14 Inside Out: 0/11 Mad Max: 0/6 Beasts of No Nation: 0/4 The Danish Girl: 0/4 Straight Outta Compton: 0/3 The Big Short: 0/2 Son of Saul: 0/2 Trumbo: 0/2 Black Mass: 0/1 Suffragette: 0/1 Truth: 0/1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 More experts are predicting Room to be nominated then The Revenant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 On 7/11/2015 1:27:24, Halba said: steve jobs audience reception mixed and box office was a high profile failure, only $15m domestic. heart of sea and big short will have better box office approx $60-70m for both with an ensemble cast. inside out is pitching for animated category not BP candidate this year. Carol too dark and indie. Ditto Son of Saul. BO is a factor, but not the factor. Buzz or early word with heart of the sea and big short are barely existent. Maybe we can see a surprising rise of one of this two films, but with the two? Look at what happened in October, the abundance of contenders looking for awards attention killed the chances of many films. In December it could happen again. There's no room for Hateful, Revenant, Joy, Big short and In the heart of the sea. And the thunder of Star Wars won't help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 13 hours ago, Impact said: More experts are predicting Room to be nominated then The Revenant? A lot of them are not including unseen movies this year in their predictions because they got burned in previous years with surefire late year contenders that dissapointed like Unbroken. 6 hours ago, stripe said: Look at what happened in October, the abundance of contenders looking for awards attention killed the chances of many films. In December it could happen again. There's no room for Hateful, Revenant, Joy, Big short and In the heart of the sea. And the thunder of Star Wars won't help. Revenant goes wide in January, and the other 4 have 2 weeks of holidays to not suffocate each other. I think two of those five at least, will do well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tau Ceti Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 On 11/8/2015, 10:08:52, Impact said: More experts are predicting Room to be nominated then The Revenant? Why not? At least critics have seen Room in theatres. If Oscars is your thing I think a Christmas release has as much disadvantages as not. December historically produced a lot of Best Picture winners but nothing for the last ten years. Oct and Nov have taken eight of those ten. At least recently, debuting close to the Venice/Telluride/Toronto trifecta seems the best path to a competitive nom, which is exactly what Room has done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Hi. Just got back from Carol. That isn't dark. Don't really have an update, but no one is saying Carol is dark. Cold and distant, maybe, but even that is soooo wrong. PS I loved Carol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 #TheMartian and #Spotlight are emerging as best picture frontrunners. https://t.co/YvvFJ72v74 pic.twitter.com/PilnZOkBWj — Variety (@Variety) November 10, 2015 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 The Martian isn't even my favorite movie this year, but I'm honestly rooting for The Martian for BP so Ridley can win his first two Oscars in one night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: The Martian isn't even my favorite movie this year, but I'm honestly rooting for The Martian for BP so Ridley can win his first two Oscars in one night. I'd like to see it win because it would be the first Scifi film to win the Oscar, that would be historic. I don't think Spotlight is a lock like 12YAS was versus Gravity. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 If The Martian wins-that will be the first time since 2003 where the film I'm rooting for wins BP! The only hate I've seen for it is on here. Team The Martian! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tau Ceti Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Ah! So many movies to see. I agree Scott is deserving and the scifi embarbo has to end eventually but I'll wait until Jan 1 to declare my winner. I think The Martian will still be in contention at that point and I'm rooting for that much at least. One thing I will say: I hope to God the Oscar doesn't go to a $20 mil gross film. If one of the smaller titles like Spotlight takes BP it ought to do so on the strength of a decent theatrical run. If none of them break out then I'm perfectly happy with The Martian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 7 hours ago, Tau Ceti said: One thing I will say: I hope to God the Oscar doesn't go to a $20 mil gross film. If one of the smaller titles like Spotlight takes BP it ought to do so on the strength of a decent theatrical run. Why the hell does that matter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tau Ceti Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 5 hours ago, Jake Gittes said: Why the hell does that matter? What's wrong with expecting a minimum of theatrical success for a BP winner? In unadjusted terms the last ten years of BP domestic grosses have been as low as they were in the 1980s. In adjusted terms, the lowest ever. It's a recipe for irrelevance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 If people didn't go see an awarded film it's not the Academy's problem. Box office shouldn't factor into this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 21 minutes ago, Tau Ceti said: What's wrong with expecting a minimum of theatrical success for a BP winner? In unadjusted terms the last ten years of BP domestic grosses have been as low as they were in the 1980s. In adjusted terms, the lowest ever. It's a recipe for irrelevance. Then it fits the Academy's mission perfectly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I don't see anything wrong with going for low grossers. it's a big help to get people to actually watch these movies, I mean I think there was a study that said The Hurt Locker was the most rented/netflix'd movie of 2010 which it obviously wouldn't have been otherwise. The oscars have always been promo anyway. Something the martian isn't dying to get more of. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Yeah, the fact that the Oscars can get a lot of people to watch films they wouldn't have seen otherwise is practically the only way in which they are useful. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 On one hand I don't think how much money a movie makes should have anything to do with weather a film gets nominated or not, but on the other I feel the academy voters purposely won't vote for a film because it's a blockbuster/or genre film. or if it is an Oscar bait film, if it completely bombs even though it's great they seem to ignore them as well. I guess the thing is film is so subjective and because of that voters are biased, I mean a film can be written and acted and everything done great, but if the story isn't something the critics will get behind, then it won't get nominated. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
