Impact Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 Nom count: 10: The Martian and The Revenant 6: Carol, Inside Out, Spotlight and Star Wars: The Force Awakens 5: The Hateful 8 and Joy 4: Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road and Room 3: The Danish Girl 2: Cinderella and Steve Jobs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 On 18/11/2015 14:36:53, stripe said: To succeed with my March bold statement (the sum of the BO gross of all nominees this year will let the average gross for each movie to be over 100M before the nominations are even announced) Inside Out 357M The Martian 230M Mad Max 153M Joy 85M Bridge of Spies 75M Revenant 35M Spotlight 35M Carol 30M Brooklyn 15M Room 10M Update. Creed's momentum is huge, while it looks like Bridge of Spies buzz is fading. Mad Max is also gaining strength. And Brooklyn is doing better than I thought. Inside Out 357M The Martian 230M Mad Max 153M Creed 140M Joy 85M Spotlight 35M Revenant 30M Carol 30M Brooklyn 25M Room 10M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 (edited) With reactions coming in, I think Hateful Eight is going to be a big contender. Certainly in the top three with Spotlight and Martian. It's biggest issue is going to be picking up wins. Walton Goggins looks like a nominee but Supporting Actor is packed, Leigh has to compete with Mara, Original Screenplay is competing with Spotlight and IO, Cinematography has The Revenant and Mad Max, etc. Edited December 2, 2015 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 (edited) in the heart of the sea is out of contention the problem with hateful eight is the subject tone and matter. the excessive violence doesnt lend itself to any wins. The Revenant has the same problem, too much off putting sexual violence and rape, however revenant will win lead actor in di caprio. spotlight is much softer and your typical oscar fare like all the presidents men which won 4 oscars. Same applies to 'joy' perfect oscar bait. likely 10 nominees will come from below in order from most likely. Spotlight Joy The Martian The Revenant The Hateful Eight Brooklyn Bridge of Spies Room Inside Out Carol Son Of Saul Anomalisa Edited December 3, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 20 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: With reactions coming in, I think Hateful Eight is going to be a big contender. Certainly in the top three with Spotlight and Martian. It's biggest issue is going to be picking up wins. Walton Goggins looks like a nominee but Supporting Actor is packed, Leigh has to compete with Mara, Original Screenplay is competing with Spotlight and IO, Cinematography has The Revenant and Mad Max, etc. What reactions? There's an embargo, so we still don't know Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 2 hours ago, stripe said: What reactions? There's an embargo, so we still don't know There's a bunch of tweets in the dedicated thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 6 hours ago, Halba said: spotlight is much softer and your typical oscar fare like all the presidents men which won 4 oscars. Same applies to 'joy' perfect oscar bait. So All the president's men is typical soft oscar fare now because it doesn't have violence? I don't get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Here are my predictions Best Picture 1.Spotlight 2.Carol 3.The Martian 4.Bridge of Spies 5.Mad Max: Fury Road 6.The Big Short 7.Joy 8.The Revenant 9.Inside Out 10.Star Wars: The Force Awakens Alts 11.Brooklyn 12.The Hateful Eight 13.Steve Jobs 14.Room 15.Creed Best Director 1.Tom McCarthy - Spotlight 2.Todd Haynes - Carol 3.Ridley Scott - The Martian 4.George Miler - Mad Max: Fury Road 5.Adam McKay - The Big Short Alts 6.Steven Spielberg - Bridge of Spies 7.Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - The Revenant 8.David O. Russell - Joy Best Actor 1.Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant 2.Matt Damon - The Martian 3.Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs 4.Steve Carell - The Big Short 5.Michael B. Jordan - Creed Alts 6.Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl 7.Will Smith - Concussion 8.Jonnny Depp - Black Mass Best Actress 1.Brie Larson - Room 2.Cate Blanchett - Carol 3.Jennifer Lawrence - Joy 4.Saiorse Ronan - Brooklyn 5.Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years Alts 6.Charlize Theron - Mad Max: Fury Road 7.Carey Mulligan - Suffragette 8.Rooney Mara - Carol Best Supporting Actor 1.Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies 2.Sylvester Stallone - Creed 3.Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight 4.Tom Hardy - The Revenant 5.Christian Bale - The Big Short Alts 6.Michael Keaton - Spotlight 7.Edgar Ramirez - Joy 8.Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation Best Supporting Actress 1.Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight 2.Rachel McAdams - Spotlight 3.Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl 4.Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs 5.Kristen Stewart - Clouds of Sils Maria Alts 6.Rooney Mara - Carol 7.Jane Fonda - Youth 8.Joan Allen - Room Best Original Screenplay 1.Inside Out 2.The Hateful Eight 3.Spotlight 4.Joy 5.Bridge of Spies Alts 6.Straight Outta Compton 7.Son of Saul 8.Sicario Best Adapted Screenplay 1.The Big Short 2.Carol 3.The Martian 4.Steve Jobs 5.Anomalisa Alts 6.Star Wars: The Force Awakens 7.Brooklyn 8.The Revenant Cinematography 1.The Revenant 2.Mad Max: Fury Road 3.Sicario 4.Bridge of Spies 5.Star Wars: The Force Awakens Alts 6.Carol 7.The Hateful Eight 9.The Martian Film Editing 1.Spotlight 2.The Revenant 3.Mad Max: Fury Road 4.The Big Short 5.Star Wars: The Force Awakens Alts 6.The Martian 7.Bridge of Spies 8.Steve Jobs Best Animation 1.Inside Out 2.Anomalisa 3.Shaun the Sheep 4.The Good Dinosaur 5.The Peanuts Movie Production Design 1.Mad Max: Fury Road 2.Cinderella 3.Bridge of Spies 4.Star Wars: The Force Awakens 5.Crimson Peak Alts 6.Carol 7.The Martian 8.The Danish Girl Best Score 1.Star Wars: The Force Awakens 2.The Hateful Eight 3.Inside Out 4.Bridge of Spies 5.Carol Alts 6.The Good Dinosaur 7.The Danish Girl 8.Mad Max: Fury Road Original Song 1.See You Again by Travis-Atreo - Furious 7 2.Til It Happens to You by Lady Gaga - The Hunting Ground 3.The Last Song by Brian Wilson - Love & Mercy 4.Simple Song #3 - Youth 5.Love Me Like You Do by Ellie Gouldling - Fifty Shades of Grey Best Costume Design 1.Cinderella 2.Brooklyn 3.Crimson Peak 4.Carol 5.Mad Max: Fury Road Alts 6.Macbeth 7.The Danish Girl Best Make Up and Hair-styling 1.Star Wars: The Force Awakens 2.The Danish Girl 3.Mad Max: Fury Road Alt 4.Black Mass Best Sound Editing 1.Mad Max: Fury Road 2.Star Wars: The Force Awakens 3.The Martian 4.The Revenant 5.Creed Alts 6.Sicario 7.Spectre 8.Jurassic World Sound Mixing 1.Mad Max: Fury Road 2.Star Wars: The Force Awakens 3.Straight Outta Compton 4.The Martian 5.Inside Out Alts 6.The Revenant 7.Creed 8.Jurassic World Visual Effects 1.Star Wars: The Force Awakens 2.Jurassic World 3.Furious 7 4.The Walk 5.Ant-Man Alts 6.Mad Max: Fury Road 7.The Avengers: Age of Ultron 8.The Martian Count Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 9 (Picture, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score, Make Up and Hair-styling, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects) Mad Max: Fury Road - 9 (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Make Up and Hairstyling, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) Carol - 6 (Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Costume Design) The Revenant - 6 (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Sound Editing) The Big Short - 6 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing) Bridge of Spies - 6 (Picture, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Score) The Martian - 6 (Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay , Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) Spotlight - 6 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing) Inside Out - 5 (Picture, Original Screenplay, Score, Animated Feature, Sound Mixing) Joy - 3 (Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay) Steve Jobs - 3 (Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay) Creed - 3 (Actor, Supporting Actor, Sound Editing) The Hateful Eight - 3 (Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Score) The Danish Girl - 2 (Supporting Actress, Make Up and Hairstyling) Brooklyn - 2 (Actress, Costume Design) Anomalisa - 2 (Adapted Screenplay, Animated Feature) Crimson Peak - 2 (Production Design, Costume Design) Furious 7 - 2 (Song, Visual Effects) Room - 1 (Actress) Cinderella - 1 (Production Design, Costume Design) The Clouds of Sils Maria - 1 (Supporting Actress) 45 Years - 1 (Actress) Sicario - 1 (Cinematography) The Good Dinosaur - 1 (Animated Feature) The Peanuts Movie - 1 (Animated Feature) Shaun the Sheep - 1 (Animated Feature) Youth - 1 (Song) Fifty Shades of Grey - 1 (Song) The Hunting Ground - 1 (Song) Love & Mercy - 1 (Song) Straight Outta Compton - 1 (Sound Mixing) Jurassic World - 1 (Visual Effects) Ant-Man - 1 (Visual Effects) The Walk - 1 (Visual Effects) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Brooklyn, Room, Creed >The big short There won't be 4 blockbusters in the BP race! SW7, MMFR, IO, Martian? No way! BoS is sadly loosing momentum and still cannot count out The Danish girl as a contender. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 6 hours ago, stripe said: Brooklyn, Room, Creed >The big short There won't be 4 blockbusters in the BP race! SW7, MMFR, IO, Martian? No way! BoS is sadly loosing momentum and still cannot count out The Danish girl as a contender. The Martian is making it in, MMFR seems to have traction and so it should reach 5%, Inside Out has enough love to get 5% #1 votes, my only iffy is Star Wars. But if Star Wars outgrosses Avatar and doesn't get a nomination, itd be rather unprecedented. We'll see about The Big Short, I've got a hunch that it should end up doing pretty well. I think Room is out the race. It couldn't even get a Spirit nomination. While that doesn't necessarily spell death, it looks to have died out. Brooklyn's a good possibility, it's my first alternate for a reason. As much as I'd love Creed to do well, I don't think there's room or anything to set it apart from the other blockbusters. I think it should pick up a few nods, but I don't know if the support will be strong enough for a Picture nomination. Bridge of Spies should still do well for the sake of being Spielberg. It's the exact kind of Spielberg film they like to nominate, and it won't be as big of a contender as Lincoln was, but it should still receive some attention. I think The Danish Girl is dead in the water. The reviews are middling, there's lots of movies gunning for a nom with no clear frontrunners, and it doesn't seem to have any traction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Spirits are not that important as an indicator of what will be embraced by Oscars. Room won at Tiff (this usually means a BP nom) and it was in the top 10 by NBR. Avatar was nommed not because of it's BO. It was a rare case where critics embrace an original film that is also a smashing hit and a cultural phenomenon. Star Wars 7 is a franchise film that will try to get attention in an already crowded BP field. It needs glowing reviews to be considered. Keep in mind Academy snubbed Wall-E and TDK making room for The reader, Milk and Frost/Nixon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I think Room has a shot, but it's a crowded field, and it hasn't had much of a success in its run so far. Im iffy on Star Wars, like I said earlier, but I think if critical reception is great, and if its box office is as phenomenal as its looking like it'll be, then it has a good shot at a nomination and buttload of techs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 congratulations on spotlight for an oscar revenant is not winning. only 83% RT, versus spotlights near 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 42 minutes ago, Halba said: congratulations on spotlight for an oscar revenant is not winning. only 83% RT, versus spotlights near 100% So did you ever solve the mystery of how Boyhood lost BP to Birdman despite having a higher RT and a longer runtime? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 54 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: So did you ever solve the mystery of how Boyhood lost BP to Birdman despite having a higher RT and a longer runtime? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Possible BP nominees (in no particular order): Spotlight Carol Inside Out Joy Bridge of Spies The Martian Creed Star Wars - Episode VII: The Force Awakens The Revenant The Hateful Eight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 (edited) 2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said: So did you ever solve the mystery of how Boyhood lost BP to Birdman despite having a higher RT and a longer runtime? i dont understand how you can compare spotlight to boyhood, totally different films. spotlight is 100% oscar bait, about journalism. like all the presidents men. very much oscar material with the ensemble cast. boyhood is more experimental and main lead actor is an unknown. Edited December 5, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Current Predictions Brooklyn Carol Creed The Hateful Eight Inside Out The Martian Spotlight The Revenant Joy Reasoning Without having to worry about splitting votes with The Good Dinosaur anymore, Inside Out has a much safer chance. I don't think Anomalisa is going to challenge it much either. Bridge of Spies isn't getting enough buzz, partly due to a somewhat subdued release (despite an okay gross), so I'm thinking it may not get in here. The Martian and Creed will be our blockbuster choices. Star Wars will be lucky to get more than 3 tech awards, and I still think Mad Max, despite a lot of passion, will make it in here. I could see it going the way of Drive, although it is much more likely to pick up a lot of tech nominations. The Martian and Creed are both very well recieved, and are on their way to grosses of $230m+ and $130m+. Hateful Eight and The Revenant have solid buzz so far, so I think they're in. Spotlight and Carol require no explanation. Brooklyn may not be strong enough for this category, but I think it has more love than either of the Brit biopics last year. Passion could really pull this ahead. Joy feels safe enough to get in, even without a lot of reliable indicators. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkelf Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 9 hours ago, Halba said: i dont understand how you can compare spotlight to boyhood, totally different films. spotlight is 100% oscar bait, about journalism. like all the presidents men. very much oscar material with the ensemble cast. boyhood is more experimental and main lead actor is an unknown. All the President's Men lost to Rocky... You know what they say about history repeating itself 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travod Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 How the fuck is Boyhood not Oscar bait? ~12 YEARS~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
