Baumer's Summer Game - Darkelf #1, Grim22 #2, laguy03 #3..final words from baumer pg 95

[grey ghost]

My original predict for AOU was 193/515. Changed it to 215/535 due to every site predicting a new record.

Damn, peer pressure.

[Avatree]

Wait a second, I'm one of the lower predictions at 520m? Seriously? Wow how did any of you see more then a 2.5 multiplier? I just hope it hits 480 so I don't lose points.

Avengers 1 managed 3.05x so it's not like 2.5x is impossible for a film this big.

 

My multi was same as Numbers, 2.64x.

[Empire]

Ugh. My prediction was 542M. No chance at that just glad others went higher.

Edited May 3, 2015 by Empire Out

[4815162342]

At least it won't be as bad as Dragon 2 where I had one of the lowest predictions and still lost points.

Edited May 3, 2015 by Numbers of Westeros

[narniadis]

I went 525 thinking it would be safe it dipped under 500 or over 550 but yeah...

[Empire]

At least it won't be as bad as Dragon 2 where I had one of the lowest predictions and still lost points.

Last year I way over predicted that & Godzilla. This year my big one will probably be Inside Out.

[Jandrew]

I had 195/485.

 

FUCK. Bold, italics, AND underline!!!!!!

[Empire]

I had 195/485.

 

FUCK. Bold, italics, AND underline!!!!!!

Blame Tele.

[Goffe]

So are there basically two groups of people here? Those who were totally betting on AoU making bank from the getgo and those of us who let Tele convince us it wasn't going to disappoint so bad?

 

And that's it, right? We're all screwed together.

 

(I hope.)

Top 15

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron 493m

 

[Mattrek]

I probably would've got points had I stuck with my 480. Goddamn this board I keep getting suckered in every year to raise predictions from the hype. I'll just hope it legs its way there.

[Alpha]

Based on estimates, the answers to Week 1:

 

1) Will Avengers make more than 22 million for previews? 2000 YES

2) Will Avengers make more than 85 million OD? 2000 NO

3) Will Avengers make more than 93 million OD? 2000 NO

4) Will Avengers fall more than 22% on Saturday? YES

5) Will Avengers fall more than 28% on Sunday? NO

6) Will Avengers make more than 200 million? NO

7) Will Avengers make more than 210 million? NO

8) Will Avengers make more than 20 million for the OW in Mexico? YES

9) Will Avengers make more than 1 million OW in Portugal? NO

10) Will Avengers surpass 600 mill at the WW box office, according to Mojo, Sunday estimates count only. YES

11) Will The Cinemascore for Avengers be at least an A? YES

12) Will Deadline's Friday report at any time contain the phrase, "Not a record"? NO

13) Will RTH's last Friday report in the forum be within 5% of the studio estimated Friday number (if RTH for some reason doesn't show up this weekend, everyone's answer will be correct)? NO

14) Will F7 fall more than 55%? YES

15) Will any film in the top 10 fall less than 50% YES

16) Will Paul Blart fall less than Get Hard? YES

17) Will the top ten films gross more than 260 million? NO

18) Will Age of Adeline have a Friday increase of more than 135%? YES

19) Will F7 gross more than 40 million WW for the weekend? YES

20) Will Get Hard stay in the top 10? NO

21) Will any film increase more than 55% on Saturday? YES 

22) Will the weekend gross of F7, Blart and Adeline gross at least 10% of what Avengers does? NO

 

18/22 3000

19/22 5000

20/22 7000

21/22 9000

22/22 15,000

 

What films place in slots:

 

6. CINDERELLA

7. EX MACHINA

9. THE LONGEST RIDE

12. GET HARD

 

2000 for each correct place

5000 bonus if all four are correct

 

Bonus 1:  What will Avengers gross for the weekend?  Please put to three decimal points.  5000 187.656

Bonus 2:  What will the cume be for the films that finish in slots 2-6? 5000 23.571

Bonus 3:  What will F7 gross on Saturday?  5000 2.600

Edited May 4, 2015 by Alpha

[CJohn]

9) Will Avengers make more than 1 million OW in Portugal? NO.

 

It did below the first one, and the first one did 930k. Confirmation coming tomorrow.

Edited May 3, 2015 by CJohn

[Dementeleus]

Now watch as TA2 develops slightly better than expected legs.

[Goffe]

I scored 20k points this week based on the estimates

[Avatree]

How do the 3dp bonus questions work? How close do you have to be to win the points?

 

 

And, I didn't post my week 1 answers in time so I wont get any points but if I had posted them I would have got 16K points, which I guess is okay.

Edited May 3, 2015 by tree - we're home

[Mattrek]

My first week I got 7,000 points

[Cedarpoint1111]

So... Not the greatest start this year...

[Dementeleus]

How do the 3dp bonus questions work? How close do you have to be to win the points?

 

You have to have the closest prediction of all the players. So in theory you could be far off and still win if everyone else was worse.... or you could be super-close and lose because someone was slightly closer.

[Empire]

My first week I got 7,000 points

Looking over mine I think I did worse.

[Kalo]

Ugh. My prediction was 542M. No chance at that just glad others went higher.

 

I lowered mine to $555m after the not as amazing WoM as I thought it would have.. still not low enough. on a positive note I'd say SW7 is almost guaranteed to be the highest grossing film of 2015 now.