Baumer's Summer Game - Darkelf #1, Grim22 #2, laguy03 #3..final words from baumer pg 95

[sakskidz]

i might get 7 of 8 correct on sotm 3 cause yes spy wont make 150 mill but it really depends on that multiplyer question for inside out i think like idk how u find the answer for midnight screenings and early shows i though that just goes into friday but then there was an opening day question im pretty sure

[chasmmi]

It's fun to look at last summer's top 15 now:

 

1. Guardians of the Galaxy - $281,204,119
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction - $244,435,833
3. Maleficent - $238,721,001
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $233,407,513
5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $205,531,338
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $202,853,933
7. Godzilla - $200,676,069
8. 22 Jump Street - $190,651,027
9. How to Train Your Dragon 2 - $174,014,832
10. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $166,277,985
11. Neighbors - $150,086,800
12. The Fault in Our Stars - $124,626,866
13. Lucy - $118,611,525
14. Edge of Tomorrow - $100,125,942
15. Tammy - $83,763,931

 

 

Fun Fact, Tomorrowland has already grossed enough to make top 15 last year. But we are also looking at probably at least 4 films beating last summer's number 1 (AOU, JW, IO and Minions).

 

I wonder how much 15th is going to need to make this year. Will 90M be enough, or will it take 100M or even 110 or 120M the way things are going?

 

Lets look at the Wide releases that are left and if they can cross 90M:

 

Spy - It's already out but the only film currently in release that can pass tomorrow and hasn't already done so. It's surely going to hit 90M, probably 100M

 

Max - Don't see it

Ted 2 - I think I'm the only person on the planet predicting this to disappoint, but it's unlikely to miss 90M

Magic Mike - I think this could stumble amidst the crowd. However 90M is a legitimate target

Terminator - I would be shocked if an Arnie Terminator film can't hit 100M

 

The Gallows - Not hitting close to 90M

Minions - Has a chance to do 90M+ in its opening W/E done deal. 

Self/Less - can't see it getting to 90M

Ant Man - Guardians shows that this could break 300M if it is awesome, and even a Marvel 'flop' is going to break 100m surely

 

Trainwreck - Dark Horse, I don't see it but it could.

Paper Towns - May be the film most of us missed if John Green is indeed a brand, However Nick Sparks shows that FIOS doesn't mean definite next hit.

Pixels - It could miss 100m, but this feels like a 150M style Sandler outing

Southpaw - Could be a great film with a middling gross. Maybe 50M could stretch to 70M but 90M...?

 

Mission Impossible - This isn't missing 100M

Vacation - It could hit 100M, but it could also go the way of Entourage. Personally think it misses.

Fantastic Four - Could well be the worst film of summer and a fail release, but as with Antman, even a flop will be over 90M I expect

The Gift - Don't see it

 

Ricky and the Flash - No clue what this even is, it has that Meryl woman in it right? But she doesn't mean 100M

Shawn the Sheep - 90M silent movie? unlikely

Man from Uncle - Could be on the cusp of 80-90M if it is awesome

Straight Outta Compton - This could make 90-100M but I think if it does it will be over 8-10 weeks, it only has about 3. Not enough time?

Underdogs - Nope, think it's a  no.

 

 

Okay so lets count the numbers.

 

99-9% gonna pass 90M

 

Spy

Terminator

Minions

Antman

Mission Impossible

Fantastic Four

 

88.8% gonna pass 90M

 

Ted 2

Pixels

 

The other films with a shot at 90M

 

Magic Mike

Trainwreck

Paper Towns

Vacation

Uncle

Compton

 

 

With Tommorowland currently looking like it is 8th out of releases to date with a total of 89-92M. We have 6 films locked to pass that which puts it in 14th place currently. Pixels and Ted would have to do something very wrong to miss also which knocks Tommorrow down to 16th and missing the cut.

 

That puts Spy's 100Mish gross as the cut. So the big question for what makes the top 15 in my eyes is if any out of MMXL, Trainwreck, Paper Towns, Vacation, Uncle or COmpton can pass it for 15th. That will be interesting. I think Andreas' 132M is too far ahead  to be in danger.

[Filmovie]

No way Ted and Pixels miss 90 M dom. IMho it is more possible that Arnie misses 90 (still not probable).

The summer with the highest 15th movie total as far as I remember is 2011 (with 115 M)

[chasmmi]

No way Ted and Pixels miss 90 M dom. IMho it is more possible that Arnie misses 90 (still not probable).

The summer with the highest 15th movie total as far as I remember is 2011 (with 115 M)

 

Oh I pretty much agree, I think Spy is the target now for films not already locked to pass it in order to make top 15.

 

But I still would argue there is a minute (and I mean minute) chance that Ted and Pixels open to about 30M with toxic word of mouth and then die a death.  

 

I absolutely do not see it happening, but it could happen. Whereas Minions is making 90m even if it's worse than Nut Job, same as Ant Man and so on.

 

But yes overall, there are 8 films locked to pass Tomorrowland at this point.

[baumer]

Ok. I know i have said this many times but this time i mean it. I have 5 days off starting on Saturday. I am going to a tragically hip concert on Monday and other than that I am free. I will be working on the game I will do a lot of scoring I will do a lot of updates and I will really make an effort to make an effort lol

[Wrath]

I'm slowly getting less confident that AOU will stay under 1.425B WW.

Edit - adding some detail, its at roughly 1.367 now and it made a little over 5m last week dom with good recent holds, plus its barely hanging on OS in a few places still with Japan to come.

Lets say it makes another $12m ww ex-Japan. That means it has to be under $45m in Japan. Thats what Avengers made and being under that is 50/50 at best. AOU was up ~50% over Avengers in SKorea and Malaysia and up 200% in China, though it was down 20% in Singapore. Its funny, after Tomorrowland I thought this question was the slam dunk but its going to end up as the closest.

Edited June 23, 2015 by Wrath

[BadAtGender]

I'm slowly getting less confident that AOU will stay under 1.425B WW.

Edit - adding some detail, its at roughly 1.367 now and it made a little over 5m last week dom with good recent holds, plus its barely hanging on OS in a few places still with Japan to come.

Lets say it makes another $12m ww ex-Japan. That means it has to be under $45m in Japan. Thats what Avengers made and being under that is 50/50 at best. AOU was up ~50% over Avengers in SKorea and Malaysia and up 200% in China, though it was down 20% in Singapore. Its funny, after Tomorrowland I thought this question was the slam dunk but its going to end up as the closest.

 

Even if it performs well, it's not likely to see an increase. Japan isn't super into superheroes (Avengers was kinda a big outlier for a non Spidey film), and sequels to big films almost always decrease, even if there's a fanbase. Besides that, the yen has gotten quite a bit weaker over past three years, which isn't true of either the yuan or won, so it would have to sell quite a few more tickets to even match the 45m of the first film.

 

30m is possible, but I wouldn't be surprised if it stays in the same 25m territory as IM3.

[grim22]

Question about SOTM 6, you mention 

SOTM 6: The Mother of all Jurassic World SOTM question: DUE MON JUNE 28TH 1159PM

 

June 28th is a Sunday. So is it due Sunday June 28th, or Monday June 29th?

[Wrath]

Even if it performs well, it's not likely to see an increase. Japan isn't super into superheroes (Avengers was kinda a big outlier for a non Spidey film), and sequels to big films almost always decrease, even if there's a fanbase. Besides that, the yen has gotten quite a bit weaker over past three years, which isn't true of either the yuan or won, so it would have to sell quite a few more tickets to even match the 45m of the first film.

30m is possible, but I wouldn't be surprised if it stays in the same 25m territory as IM3.

I recognize the drop in yen as a factor, but you're really understating the impact of sequels. First Avenger to Winter Soldier doubled, Iron Man to Iron Man 2 was up 50% and then IM2 to IM3 was a double. Thor to DW was the exception with a 5% increase.

So the MCU is 4 for 4 on sequels increasing over their prior films, and 3 of the 4 were 50+%. Much lower bases than Avengers so that degree of gain is impossible. But the track record hardly presupposes a decline.

[narniadis]

That sounds highly familiar.

[narniadis]

Well crap missed another weeks questions... shooting myself in the foot I am....

[Ethan Hunt]

As there are a few new players here I'm gonna give you all one piece of advice for free as I'm that kind of guy:

 

Predict Avengers to win the summer.

 

 

There, no need to thank me.

You screwed us all!

[grim22]

As there are a few new players here I'm gonna give you all one piece of advice for free as I'm that kind of guy:

Predict Avengers to win the summer.

There, no need to thank me.

Your gambit almost worked. You forgot to predict JW to top though. Your master plan would have worked flawlessly otherwise.

[Chewy]

So many disastrous calls here but I feel like everyone else's list is just as bad

 

1) Avengers 485M

2) Inside Out 275M

3) Minions 260M

4) Jurassic World 245M

5) Mission Impossible 185M

 

6) Ant-Man 175M

7) Vacation 160M

8) Spy 145M

9) Trainwreck 135M

10) San Andreas 130M

 

11) Fant4stic 125M

12) Ted 2 120M

13) Terminator: Gibberish 115M

14) Pitch Perfect 2 110M

15) Mad Max 100M

[Dementeleus]

Good call on TED 2, I think you're among the lowest predicts for it. (I had 200m.)

[narniadis]

I think I had 160 for it with similar logic to my 525 Avengers. It was going to fall but my number seemed a safe choice in case it did better than I expected. Still screwed.

[The Stingray]

So many disastrous calls here but I feel like everyone else's list is just as bad

 

1) Avengers 485M

2) Inside Out 275M

3) Minions 260M

4) Jurassic World 245M

5) Mission Impossible 185M

 

6) Ant-Man 175M

7) Vacation 160M

8) Spy 145M

9) Trainwreck 135M

10) San Andreas 130M

 

11) Fant4stic 125M

12) Ted 2 120M

13) Terminator: Gibberish 115M

14) Pitch Perfect 2 110M

15) Mad Max 100M

 

Don't see what you're fuzzing about. Aside from JW, which everyone f**ked up, those are some pretty solid predictions you got there.

[BK007]

I played this game twice on BOM I think.

I love doing the initial predicts but have no time to continue throughout the summer answering questions.

Is it okay, if next time the game is run, to simply participate in the initial stage?

[baumer]

I played this game twice on BOM I think.

I love doing the initial predicts but have no time to continue throughout the summer answering questions.

Is it okay, if next time the game is run, to simply participate in the initial stage?

 

It's always ok.  You'll just never really have a chance to win the game.  I'm in the same boat as you this year.  I don't even have time to answer the weekly questions lol.

[baumer]

I've been pretty good over the years with the top 15...this year, yea, not so much

 

1) Avengers: Age of Ultron - $565

2) Minions:  $285

3) Jurassic Park:  $265

4) Inside Out - $235M

5) Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation - $200M

 

6) Spy: - $165M

7) Ted 2 - $164.9M

8) Trainwreck: $156

9) Terminator: Genisys - $155M

10) San Andreas:  154.5

 

11) Pixels - $146M

12) Ant-Man - $141M

13) Pitch Perfect 2 - $130M

14) Mad Max - $129.9

15) Straight Oughta Compton: 100.5