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AVENGERS Official Wknd Estimates: 191M - Disney

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I get it, but it's hypocritical what you Marvel loonies doing. When someone calls Ultron to do less than Fast 7 WW and sub-500m US gross then we are "haters" and get ridiculed and when it's actually happening the "it's still doing good business" "was expected to drop" cards are being played. BS. We knew it's going to make money and we knew it's going to do 1 billion OS. The discussion was at different level, so let's face the music, it is doing shockingly bad in the US compared to the rest of the World where it's matching or outperforming TA, so the few of us who called Utron's less than spectacular domestic run deserve a wee bit of credit. You guys were talking about 250m OW at point, ouch. No matter what the gross is when you drop 150m from your previous film you can call that disappointing.

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John honestly please explain what is disappointing about this opening? Number 2 all time. And Disney can't even get mad because it owns the top three spots with more to come.

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Sure but that doesn't mean you have to get mad at the fact people feel it is underwhelming and are discussing this

 

Exactly, and FWIW I think there should be a WWW thread.  That discussion needs to be open regardless of whether you think its disappointing or not.  If nothing else we could discuss what "went wrong" with our expectations and then explore WHY those expectations were misplaced (misjudgment of TA's audience response, poor marketing campaign for AOU that we didn't account for, or whatever else).  Simply brushing it off as "still the 2nd biggest OW ever" or "still 187M" is just lazy.  We can do that with any big figure then.

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What's the longest the OW record has been held by a single film? I know Avengers is on good track considering it's been three years.

 

2. Spider-Man (May 2002)

Title Held: 4 years, 2 months, 4 days (broken by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest)

Opening Weekend: $114.8 million

Adjusted for 2015 Prices: $160.5 million

One summer after Bryan Singer's X-Men revitalized the superhero genre, Sam Raimi delivered a pitch-perfect origin story for arguably the most enduring character in the Marvel mythos. As the first film to ever crack $100 million in its first three days, Spider-Man had a major hand in the beginning of Hollywood's comic book adaptation era.

 

 

1. The Lost World: Jurassic Park (May 1997)

Title Held: 4 years, 5 months, 24 days (broken by Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone)

Opening Weekend: $72.1 million

Adjusted for 2015 Prices: $127.6 million

Four years after Steven Spielberg conquered the global box office (again) with the 1993 classic, audiences were hungry to go back to "the park". Aside from other challengers in the years following (such as Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace, which bowed on a Wednesday instead of Friday), The Lost Worldwas the biggest opener of its time and still lays claim to having owned that record longer than any other movie.

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2015-04-30-throwback-thursday-a-look-back-at-past-opening-weekend-record-breakers

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It would need a $65.7m Sunday. Zero chance of that happening.

 

Well - the first avengers did 57million. Considering all of the expectations for the 2nd one - as little as 4 days ago i think 90% of people here would have predicted a sunday gross of ~65mil or more, no?

 

Why is it all of a sudden impossible?

 

I get that it would go counter the usual pattern of sundays dropping from saturday, but it's not impossible.

 

It didn't have to beat the avengers but people like to see records broken. It excites people.

 

No I realize that. What I mean is not that it "had to beat the record to be successful". What i'm saying is everyone was so sure it *would* beat the record.

 

I thought it had a chance but also had my doubts. 207 is an absolutely crazy number - it's not just because the first movie did it that the 2nd movie definitely would too.. 

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Well - the first avengers did 57million. Considering all of the expectations for the 2nd one - as little as 4 days ago i think 90% of people here would have predicted a sunday gross of ~65mil or more, no?

 

 

I doubt even the most optimistic predictions were predicting a Sunday of 65M.  Even if it had done 220-230M, Sunday would have been mid to high 50s.

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I get it, but it's hypocritical what you Marvel loonies doing. When someone calls Ultron to do less than Fast 7 WW and sub-500m US gross then we are "haters" and get ridiculed and when it's actually happening the "it's still doing good business" "was expected to drop" cards are being played. BS. We knew it's going to make money and we knew it's going to do 1 billion OS. The discussion was at different level, so let's face the music, it is doing shockingly bad in the US compared to the rest of the World where it's matching or outperforming TA, so the few of us who called Utron's less than spectacular domestic run deserve a wee bit of credit. You guys were talking about 250m OW at point, ouch. No matter what the gross is when you drop 150m from your previous film you can call that disappointing.

Since I never called anyone a loonie I'm well within my rights to point out what a fantastic OW this is for any movie.

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I am honestly not sure what the people who are going "It's still a great number! There is nothing to discuss! STFU" are doing on a BOX OFFICE site, and getting angered at the idea that people found the opening underwhelming and trying to stifle the discussion instead of encouraging it. 

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2. Spider-Man (May 2002)

Title Held: 4 years, 2 months, 4 days (broken by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest)

Opening Weekend: $114.8 million

Adjusted for 2015 Prices: $160.5 million

One summer after Bryan Singer's X-Men revitalized the superhero genre, Sam Raimi delivered a pitch-perfect origin story for arguably the most enduring character in the Marvel mythos. As the first film to ever crack $100 million in its first three days, Spider-Man had a major hand in the beginning of Hollywood's comic book adaptation era.

1. The Lost World: Jurassic Park (May 1997)

Title Held: 4 years, 5 months, 24 days (broken by Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone)

Opening Weekend: $72.1 million

Adjusted for 2015 Prices: $127.6 million

Four years after Steven Spielberg conquered the global box office (again) with the 1993 classic, audiences were hungry to go back to "the park". Aside from other challengers in the years following (such as Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace, which bowed on a Wednesday instead of Friday), The Lost Worldwas the biggest opener of its time and still lays claim to having owned that record longer than any other movie.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2015-04-30-throwback-thursday-a-look-back-at-past-opening-weekend-record-breakers

The Avengers has a good chance at breaking this record, doesn't it? I don't see SW7 or anything in the next year and a half opening above $200 million...

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John honestly please explain what is disappointing about this opening? Number 2 all time. And Disney can't even get mad because it owns the top three spots with more to come.

 

I've said why a million times. Usually openings are seen as disappointing here because we hype them up so much, ie. Mockingjay, Interstellar, Pacific Rim, Scream 4, etc.

 

This time was different. Deadline, Variety, Gitesh, even Disney themselves and RTH hyped everyone up so much on Friday, since they were all saying similar #'s, it had to be real. And then it all came crashing down to the point where one of the mods said it was "crashing down" in the thread title. While our expectations were still a little high, they were reasonable. The general consensus was near Potter's $91 and $205-210 weekend, then everyone outside of BOF came in and gave us expectations of $220 and above. Then when they came down to earth and said $205-210 like most were expecting, they still ended up being wrong. Way wrong. 

RTH said "thinking 95-100 atm". 14/15 times when he says a range, it's in that range, but this time it wasn't even close. So you're right, while its the 2nd biggest opening ever and we should appreciate that, its a little disappointing considering where everyone had BOF believing it was heading before Exhibitor posted their $84m number Saturday morning.

 

This one is not all on the forum and our crazy expectations.

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Exactly, and FWIW I think there should be a WWW thread.  That discussion needs to be open regardless of whether you think its disappointing or not.  If nothing else we could discuss what "went wrong" with our expectations and then explore WHY those expectations were misplaced (misjudgment of TA's audience response, poor marketing campaign for AOU that we didn't account for, or whatever else).  Simply brushing it off as "still the 2nd biggest OW ever" or "still 187M" is just lazy.  We can do that with any big figure then.

Now that's a worthwhile discussion.  

 

We should do that with any big figure.   ....Because it's a big figure.   No spin can make a huge OW into anything other than a huge OW.

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I get it, but it's hypocritical what you Marvel loonies doing. When someone calls Ultron to do less than Fast 7 WW and sub-500m US gross then we are "haters" and get ridiculed and when it's actually happening the "it's still doing good business" "was expected to drop" cards are being played. BS. We knew it's going to make money and we knew it's going to do 1 billion OS. The discussion was at different level, so let's face the music, it is doing shockingly bad in the US compared to the rest of the World where it's matching or outperforming TA, so the few of us who called Utron's less than spectacular domestic run deserve a wee bit of credit. You guys were talking about 250m OW at point, ouch. No matter what the gross is when you drop 150m from your previous film you can call that disappointing.

People overpredict. People underpredict. It happens.

I'm not sure how it's doing shockingly bad when it's not doing bad at all. It might not be performing to what some users expected but it's doing well.

IF it had opened to Furious 7 numbers, I'd call that a disappointment. But not $187 million.

Exactly, and FWIW I think there should be a WWW thread. That discussion needs to be open regardless of whether you think its disappointing or not. If nothing else we could discuss what "went wrong" with our expectations and then explore WHY those expectations were misplaced (misjudgment of TA's audience response, poor marketing campaign for AOU that we didn't account for, or whatever else). Simply brushing it off as "still the 2nd biggest OW ever" or "still 187M" is just lazy. We can do that with any big figure then.

It's not lazy. It's the truth. Just because people predicted the movie wrong doesn't mean it needs a what went wrong thread. A what went wrong thread is for when a movie isn't doing fine. This one is.

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2. Spider-Man (May 2002)

Title Held: 4 years, 2 months, 4 days (broken by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest)

Opening Weekend: $114.8 million

Adjusted for 2015 Prices: $160.5 million

One summer after Bryan Singer's X-Men revitalized the superhero genre, Sam Raimi delivered a pitch-perfect origin story for arguably the most enduring character in the Marvel mythos. As the first film to ever crack $100 million in its first three days, Spider-Man had a major hand in the beginning of Hollywood's comic book adaptation era.

 

 

1. The Lost World: Jurassic Park (May 1997)

Title Held: 4 years, 5 months, 24 days (broken by Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone)

Opening Weekend: $72.1 million

Adjusted for 2015 Prices: $127.6 million

Four years after Steven Spielberg conquered the global box office (again) with the 1993 classic, audiences were hungry to go back to "the park". Aside from other challengers in the years following (such as Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace, which bowed on a Wednesday instead of Friday), The Lost Worldwas the biggest opener of its time and still lays claim to having owned that record longer than any other movie.

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2015-04-30-throwback-thursday-a-look-back-at-past-opening-weekend-record-breakers

 

 

The interesting thing in this article (I just read the updated version) is that the original article starts like this

 

At the risk of presumption, Avengers: Age of Ultron is about to break the domestic box office opening weekend record.  "By how much?" is an almost superfluous question when anything close to the standing record of 2012's The Avengers ($207.4 million) will and should be viewed as a massive success for Ultron.

 

The start of the updated version is

 

Sunday Update: Let this weekend be a reminder to us all: nothing is ever guaranteed.

 

Kudos to Shawn

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Now that's a worthwhile discussion.  

 

We should do that with any big figure.   ....Because it's a big figure.   No spin can make a huge OW into anything other than a huge OW.

 

No one's saying it's not huge!  But relative to expectations AND precedent it is underwhelming.  Why is this so off-putting?

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It's a good thing, but in this particular scenario unrepresentative of the nation because Rallax's theater is in an area with a disproportionately large amount of Spurs fans who crowded the theater Friday night then skipped out last night to catch game 7.  Naturally there would be some correction today as well, not everyone who skipped out Saturday night saw it Friday, some may have decided to see it today.

 

This effect will be present on a national scale for the game and the fight, but to a much lesser degree. 

 

Yes. The movie still increased very slightly (0.5%) nationwide on Saturday from non-preview Friday business. At Rallax's theater it actually dropped pretty hard on Saturday from non-preview Friday business if I remember right. The Spurs game and boxing proved to be a huge 1-2 knockout punch for his market.

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I am honestly not sure what the people who are going "It's still a great number! There is nothing to discuss! STFU" are doing on a BOX OFFICE site, and getting angered at the idea that people found the opening underwhelming and trying to stifle the discussion instead of encouraging it.

We can certainly discuss how great this number is

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