JohnnyGossamer Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Iron Man 3 faced a 50M opening in its second weekend, a 70M opener in its third weekend, and a 90M / 41M / 33M openers in its fourth weekend. Three of this five openers were direct competition. Avengers2 will face virtually nothing in its second weekend. In its third weekend PP2 and MMFR are not going to grab the same attention ST2 got in 2013. And Poltergeist/Tomorrowland combo is not FF6/Hangover3/Epic combo. Avengers2 is well positioned to get better legs than IM3. Too true. Should have marginally better legs than IM3/Thor2. Agreed. Depending on the 2nd weekend, $500M DOM is still a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KATCH-2D2 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Iron Man 3 faced a 50M opening in its second weekend, a 70M opener in its third weekend, and a 90M / 41M / 33M openers in its fourth weekend. Three of this five openers were direct competition. Avengers2 will face virtually nothing in its second weekend. In its third weekend PP2 and MMFR are not going to grab the same attention ST2 got in 2013. And Poltergeist/Tomorrowland combo is not FF6/Hangover3/Epic combo. Avengers2 is well positioned to get better legs than IM3. Thanks. I forgot how tough IM3 competitions were. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Big thing is memorial day. It will likely have a soft drop like 20-25% on the 4 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 I hope AOU has solid legs. I need it to get to 500. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 I hope AOU has solid legs. I need it to get to 500. Don't MOS-ed it any further, Tele. You've done enough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 I hope AOU has solid legs. I need it to get to 500. THIS IS ALL YOUR FAULT!!!! Anyway, I need 470M. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 You underestimate his powah He has UNNNLIMMMMMMITED POWAH! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandrew Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Again, will be the second biggest Tuesday that wasn't an OD, a holiday, or had any benefit of kids being out of school and/or adults off work. Between TA1 and IM3. Not saying this as positive spin, I am genuinely interested in what films had the biggest "normal" weekdays where everyone was in school or at work, and there was nothing special to boost it (like The Vow's first Tuesday falling on Valentine's Day). It seems to be: If THG was indeed boosted by some schools/colleges being out that week, then #10 is DOFP with $8.2M. (Or if any schools or colleges were already out the week after Memorial Day to boost DOFP's first Tuesday, then #10 would be TPM with $8.18M.) (And wow that Sniper pulled a nearly $10M Tuesday, in January, with everyone back in school/work after that Monday. I only realize now how crazy that was.) Yeah, you cant do it like that. At all. School and work closures are not uniform. I had Spring Break in early March, but my family wasnt out/off until early April. Some kids end school Memorial weekend, some end June. Some people have to to go to school and work on Veterans, Presidents, MLK, and Columbus Day, and then some dont. And theres things like early release, staff development day, etc that are definately not uniform. If youre gonna make a chart like that, it needs to be uniform, you cant just make your own variables, especially variables dealing with school and work. America does not work on 1 calendar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandrew Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 I hope AOU has solid legs. I need it to get to 500. So do I, thanks to you, Telimakus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDC1987 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Yeah, you cant do it like that. At all. School and work closures are not uniform. I had Spring Break in early March, but my family wasnt out/off until early April. Some kids end school Memorial weekend, some end June. Some people have to to go to school and work on Veterans, Presidents, MLK, and Columbus Day, and then some dont. And theres things like early release, staff development day, etc that are definately not uniform. If youre gonna make a chart like that, it needs to be uniform, you cant just make your own variables, especially variables dealing with school and work. America does not work on 1 calendar. Now now, don't bring reality in to fanboy spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted May 6, 2015 Author Share Posted May 6, 2015 THIS IS ALL YOUR FAULT!!!! Anyway, I need 470M. So do I, thanks to you, Telimakus. Avengers 2 has no competition since May is one of the weakest months I can remember. Even with Avengers reaching 500, there is a small chance May ends below last years May. TASM2, Neighbors, Godzilla, DOFP and Maleficent all opened well and earned a lot in May, if Mad Max and Tomorrowland disappoint May will end up lower. Shows the need for a well rounded release schedule rather than everyone staying away from a big release. I can understand the big blockbuster releases staying away, but Gatsby 2 years ago and Neighbors last year showed that counterprogramming works especially when the first release slightly underperforms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TServo2049 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 (edited) Now now, don't bring reality in to fanboy spin.I am not fanboy spinning, I found AoU a bit of a letdown and have no personal investment in defending it. I do think people are kind of off the mark in treating this as a disaster, but I am not trying to mount a fanboy defense of it. I can understand why it's performing below expectations, it did feel kind of empty to me. The spark is just not there, in the film or in the audience reaction. (My Sunday audience was already less enthusiastic than my opening night audience.) I am just legitimately curious at the best weekdays movies have pulled without a ton of people being off school and/or work. Jandrew, you have made great points. I won't do this anymore, because you're absolutely right. I can't just impose one calendar. I was just playing around because I was curious. Edited May 6, 2015 by TServo2049 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Too true. Should have marginally better legs than IM3/Thor2. Agreed. Depending on the 2nd weekend, $500M DOM is still a possibility. Wouldn't the 3rd weekend drop be the biggest indicator of potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Seems so. IM3 Avengers SM3 Average Sunday $50,319,942.00 $50,319,942.00 $50,319,942.00 Monday $13,228,555.00 $13,228,555.00 $13,228,555.00 $13,228,555.00 Tuesday $13,255,012.11 $12,368,698.93 $10,344,730.01 $11,989,480.35 Wednesday $9,530,353.71 $9,523,898.17 $8,637,849.56 $9,230,700.48 Thursday $8,939,471.78 $8,666,747.34 $7,601,307.61 $8,402,508.91 Friday $23,162,171.37 $20,436,190.22 $22,081,798.61 $21,893,386.74 Saturday $37,661,690.66 $30,000,327.24 $32,393,998.56 $33,352,005.49 Sunday $24,404,775.54 $21,630,235.94 $20,375,825.10 $22,136,945.53 Week $130,182,030.17 $115,854,652.84 $114,664,064.45 $120,233,582.49 Ten-Day $321,453,139.17 $307,125,761.84 $305,935,173.45 $311,504,691.49 Since IM3 is the most recent of the three films, it probably bears the closest market similarity (discount Tuesdays and all.) It does mean we'll probably see a large-ish drop on Wednesday, though. Closer to 30% than 20%. It'll have to be seen whether AoU will get the same Friday boost, however. Thanks for this Damien. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Doubt it, RTH is about as accurate a they come most of the time. FTFY reason: No one is 100% accurate all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 I hope AOU has solid legs. I need it to get to 500. You will still lose points! Bwahahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 You will still lose points! Bwahahaha. Shit, well, if you put it that way, it needs to get $505.001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Wouldn't the 3rd weekend drop be the biggest indicator of potential? Well, yes, you're right. I more so meant that this coming weekend will give us a better indication. Obviously, as more and more data's available, we'll get a better idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Shit, well, if you put it that way, it needs to get $505.001. I predicted 10 M more than you did. 515 M is what I need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDC1987 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 FTFY reason: No one is 100% accurate all the time. He didn't say 100% of the time. Seriously, you people giving RTH a hard time are disrespectful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
