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Wednesday Actuals: JW 19.9 [Not the PIXAR thread]

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Considering your crazy doom and gloom predicts last weekend, 70m would be awesome for this. ;)

I was too shocked by Jurassic World's blessing numbers  :ph34r: Now I believe Inside Out will do well. I am not ruling out 80M OW. I really feel it is gonna explode.

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Wow, all I had to do was remove "TS3" and "emotional" and add in Jurassic World and it fits perfectly.

 

Haha. I loved JP4 but I would not call it a great movie overall (as in comparing it with stuff like The Godfather) and I certainly wouldn't consider it better than JP1, which is a lot different reaction to the TS3 praise compared to TS1.

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I like Pixar but some of their fans are really annoying. This is basically true for all the franchises.
I think what gets most on my nerves with any franchise is when people start bombarding threads with wall of text fan theories/complaints. No one should devote that much time to one post when most people are just going to skip over it anyway Edited by tribefan695
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Cough.... 50shadestobeatstarwars... cough

I also said in a random thread that I would really love to see Jurassic World beat Age of Ultron. I was careful by saying in the same post that I knew that was impossible to not let another 50 Shades happen :lol: 

 

Anything over 60M for Inside Out is fantastic :)

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Nice, healthy drop. So... What's the consensus on this weekend? $85M?

 

If it follows MOS's drops from Wednesday (with a more realistic drop of 5-10% for Thursday since there is no game 7 today) and considering a negligible drop on Sunday due to Father's day being a good day for action movies, it gets 110M.

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Haha. I loved JP4 but I would not call it a great movie overall (as in comparing it with stuff like The Godfather) and I certainly wouldn't consider it better than JP1, which is a lot different reaction to the TS3 praise compared to TS1.

 

Huh?  

 

The quote didn't mention it being better or worse than anything or making any comparisons.  It's just a reflection of my opinions about how the ending is making everyone love it.

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If it follows MOS's drops from Wednesday (with a more realistic drop of 5-10% for Thursday since there is no game 7 today) and considering a negligible drop on Sunday due to Father's day being a good day for action movies, it gets 110M.

You are pulling a CJohn's 50 Shades hype train there grim. 

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If it follows MOS's drops from Wednesday (with a more realistic drop of 5-10% for Thursday since there is no game 7 today) and considering a negligible drop on Sunday due to Father's day being a good day for action movies, it gets 110M.

MOS Friday increase was due to the depressed Thursday affected by NBA final game. So The increase will be lower.

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If it follows MOS's drops from Wednesday (with a more realistic drop of 5-10% for Thursday since there is no game 7 today) and considering a negligible drop on Sunday due to Father's day being a good day for action movies, it gets 110M.

 

But Man of Steel's Friday percentage increase was inflated due to the bad Thursday drop. Give Man of Steel a 10% Thursday drop and the Friday increase was around 55% instead of 79%. With that in mind for JP4:

 

Thursday - $17.8m (-9.6%)

Friday - $27.6m (+55%)

Saturday - $34.5m (+25%)

Sunday - $32.8m (-5%)

 

Weekend = $94.9m

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You are pulling a CJohn's 50 Shades hype train there grim. 

 

The difference being I am looking at past history for similar movies.

Say JW drops to 18M today which is a 10% drop roughly, the with MoS's Friday and Saturday increases we get 32M Friday, 42M Saturday, and a small drop to maybe 38-40M Sunday = 110-115M without doing anything extraordinary. Those increases are 79% on Friday and 25% on Saturday which are both pretty realistic to be honest.

 

 

MOS Friday increase was due to the depressed Thursday affected by NBA final game. So The increase will be lower.

 

 

But Man of Steel's Friday percentage increase was inflated due to the bad Thursday drop. Give Man of Steel a 10% Thursday drop and the Friday increase was around 55% instead of 79%. With that in mind for JP4:

 

Thursday - $17.8m (-9.6%)

Friday - $27.6m (+55%)

Saturday - $34.5m (+25%)

Sunday - $32.8m (-5%)

 

Weekend = $94.9m

 

 

The depressed Thursday I think will be compensated for by the lack of competition. MoS did have WWZ targeting a very similar demographic as well. JW has nothing against it.

Edited by grim22
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The difference being I am looking at past history for similar movies.

Say JW drops to 18M today which is a 10% drop roughly, the with MoS's Friday and Saturday increases we get 32M Friday, 42M Saturday, and a small drop to maybe 38-40M Sunday = 110-115M without doing anything extraordinary. Those increases are 79% on Friday and 25% on Saturday which are both pretty realistic to be honest.

 

 

 

 

 

The depressed Thursday I think will be compensated for by the lack of competition. MoS did have WWZ targeting a very similar demographic as well. JW has nothing against it.

79% is too high, IMO. 

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The difference being I am looking at past history for similar movies.

Say JW drops to 18M today which is a 10% drop roughly, the with MoS's Friday and Saturday increases we get 32M Friday, 42M Saturday, and a small drop to maybe 38-40M Sunday = 110-115M without doing anything extraordinary. Those increases are 79% on Friday and 25% on Saturday which are both pretty realistic to be honest.

I certainly hope that you are correct though. :)

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The depressed Thursday I think will be compensated for by the lack of competition. MoS did have WWZ targeting a very similar demographic as well. JW has nothing against it.

 

 

I disagree a bit with that. JP4 is a 4-quadrant film that appeals to parents and little kids. Pixar appeals strongly to those two demographics as well. I do think both films will do very well this weekend though. There is plenty of room for two big movies.

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