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#ED

Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

By #ED, in Numbers and Data

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DavidBrennan Box Office Gold

DavidBrennan

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Avatar had to face the biggest competition that is called "no fanbase and low awareness" which made it gross on the OW less than JW did in a single day. This "competition" is particularly heavy in an era that movies get more and more frontloaded.

 

"low awareness"?  Where were you in 2009? 

 

How about the front page of DrudgeReport for days on end, on every single movie mag, cable news network, and on and on.  AVTR received double the media attention of JW.  Easily.

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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AVTR was late December.  In modern box office, a month prior is irrelevant. 

 

You're claiming Twilight was competition for AVTR? 

 

Cool.  Then I'm counting AOU as competition for JW.  So, once again, JW faces vastly stiffer competition than AVTR.

 

THE BLIND SIDE, despite being a November release, was a very leggy film. It made more or less 100 M during Dec/Jan. The big films of May/Jun 2015 are basically AOU, JW and IO. Dec/Nov had FIVE 200 M films. Even if you exclude the November releases, that is still 428 M from the December openers. And AVATAR being a four-quadrant film, it surely had competition from AATC II which targeted families and SH which targeted teens/adults. Don't get me wrong this is not about AVATAR vs JW. All I am saying is that it's wrong to say that AVATAR had ZERO competition.

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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"low awareness"?  Where were you in 2009? 

 

How about the front page of DrudgeReport for days on end, on every single movie mag, cable news network, and on and on.  AVTR received double the media attention of JW.  Easily.

 

JW has nostalgia and brand recognition behind it. AVATAR? Nothing.

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DavidBrennan Box Office Gold

DavidBrennan

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THE BLIND SIDE, despite being a November release, was a very leggy film. It made more or less 100 M during Dec/Jan. The big films of May/Jun 2015 are basically AOU, JW and IO. Dec/Nov had FIVE 200 M films. Even if you exclude the November releases, that is still 428 M from the December openers. And AVATAR being a four-quadrant film, it surely had competition from AATC II which targeted families and SH which targeted teens/adults. Don't get me wrong this is not about AVATAR vs JW. All I am saying is that it's wrong to say that AVATAR had ZERO competition.

 

So now you're saying Blind Side in its 6th week = IO in its opening week (a probable top 5 animated movie of all time).

 

sure

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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So now you're saying Blind Side in its 6th week = IO in its opening week (a probable top 5 animated movie of all time).

 

sure

 

You clearly do not get the point. We are talking about the overall competition here, not this film should equal that film.

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DavidBrennan Box Office Gold

DavidBrennan

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JW has nostalgia and brand recognition behind it. AVATAR? Nothing.

 

AVTR had "no nostalgia and brand recognition"?  Funny, right now in the AVTR2 thread they're all talking about how the James Cameron brand is so powerful. 

 

You guys just can't keep your stories straight.

 

Where was the "nostalgia and brand recognition" for JP3?

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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But there is no question Avatar had much better schedule than JW. Especially post its 2nd weekend when nothing worthwhile released for 3 weeks and Avatar was able to retain most of its screens.

 

We are now saying this because we already saw how it performed. I don't know if you were already at BOM when AVATAR was close to its release. Oh boy, the hate and negativity that film got.

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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AVTR had "no nostalgia and brand recognition"?  Funny, right now in the AVTR2 thread they're all talking about how the James Cameron brand is so powerful. 

 

You guys just can't keep your stories straight.

 

Where was the "nostalgia and brand recognition" for JP3?

 

Huh? I was talking about AVATAR not AVATAR II. And why are you using JP III here? JP and JP II didn't exist?

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vc2002 Summer Tentpole

vc2002

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"low awareness"?  Where were you in 2009? 

 

How about the front page of DrudgeReport for days on end, on every single movie mag, cable news network, and on and on.  AVTR received double the media attention of JW.  Easily.

 

The awareness is low comparing to JW in the sense that it did less on the OW less than JW did in one day. I'm sure on other planet studios will prefer a low OW and hopefully 10x mutlplier instead of a mega 200m OW that ensures a huge boxoffice hit right away, but we're on earth.

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DavidBrennan Box Office Gold

DavidBrennan

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You clearly do not get the point. We are talking about the overall competition here, not this film should equal that film.

 

You clearly do not get the point: just one of JW's competitors will make more than both of AVTRs competitors combined.

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DavidBrennan Box Office Gold

DavidBrennan

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We are now saying this because we already saw how it performed. I don't know if you were already at BOM when AVATAR was close to its release. Oh boy, the hate and negativity that film got.

 

From where?  It got overwhelming love, beyond meaningless fanboy snark about its teaser trailer.

 

Stop this re-writing history to make AVTR - a behemoth that cost more than any movie in history and had one of the most aggressive and expensive marketing campaigns in history which dwarfed JW - seem like a Little Engine That Could.  It was a tentpole blockbuster that got fawning media coverage (including a whole 'Oprah' episode, a 60 Minutes segment, days of Drudge and HuffPost headlines - all BEFORE its release - and more).

 

AVTR was a media darling monster from the very start.

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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Wtf is going on with the box office in the last 2 weeks? These numbers are insane. Inside out is going to open north of 80 million? I truly do not understand why. This is a great time to be following the box office though.

Edited by baumer
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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We are now saying this because we already saw how it performed. I don't know if you were already at BOM when AVATAR was close to its release. Oh boy, the hate and negativity that film got.

 

I was there. I predicted 90/525 prior to release. Its overall gross was shocking but there were bunch of folks predicting a big breakout for Avatar. The buzz leading to the weekend was good and there were bunch of sellouts. Of course the weather was awful and that had 10%+ impact in its OW.

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DavidBrennan Box Office Gold

DavidBrennan

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Wtf is going on with the box office in the last 2 weeks? These numbers are insane. Inside out is going to open north of a million? I truly do not understand why. This is a great time to be following the box office though.

 

The Park is Open.

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