Tuesday Actuals: Jurassic World - 13.13M | Inside Out 13.04M

[KATCH-2D2]

Ted could make $52m-$54m and finish 3rd...

Of course it could but that would mean it's underperformed, right? It's more likely to make more than that.

 

It'd be awesome to have all top 3 making over 50m (would be even more insane if they all could go over 60m!  ). However, if Ted2 sucks then I can see IO winning the weekend because I don't think JW can drop less than 50% after such inflated 2nd weekend.

[#ED]

In order to maintain a healthy balance between domestic product and Hollywood fare, SARFT (The State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television) imposes an annual blackout "month" on most imported films. This weekend begins the month or more-long protection period and sees 14 new films enter cinemas...

 

...Finally, Jurassic World will be losing most of its screens this weekend due to the protection period, but we still see the hot ticket in China placing in the top 3 and ending its run over $200 million. 

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2015-06-23-hollywood-adventures-poised-to-become-first-local-summer-blockbuster-as-protection-period-starts-in-full-force

 

[druv10]

Not sure I agree with that weekend number. A bad Monday and great Tuesday cancel each other out, but it will drop around 20% today. From there it ends up with a $46m weekend based on TS3's weekend vs. Wednesday multiplier. TS3 had a better Monday but dropped Tuesday, then had a strong Wednesday hold of only 11%.

 

I expect something in the low 50's for Inside Out weekend. Likewise with JP4. Ted 2 will probably hit 60 or higher.

 

MU, Brave and other Pixar June releases all jumped over 50% only exception was TS3 which only jumped 37.5%. I fully expect jump at or over 50% for Friday.

[KATCH-2D2]

I expect Ant-Man to do less than 140M, I don't really expect Pixels to be massive breakout either.

The way I see it Fantastic Four will be the TMNT to M:I 5's Guardians of Galaxy

 

That would be great for both, moneywise. FF needs to be a lot better than movie than TMNT to have that kind of break out.

[mahnamahna]

I expect Ant-Man to do less than 140M, I don't really expect Pixels to be massive breakout either.

The way I see it Fantastic Four will be the TMNT to M:I 5's Guardians of Galaxy

You think MI5 is doing $330 million DOM? 

 

I'm thinking $190-230 million DOM. 

 

Unlike TMNT, F4 isn't looking all that kid-friendly and seems pretty grim/depressing. Pixels is the TMNT this year - a panned tentpole that 'surprises' all of the fanboys by its solid BO performance.

 

I wouldn't be shocked at Ant-Man doing $140 million, but F4 isn't screaming breakout to me. Remember - summer 2014 was void of tentpoles in the second half of the summer. Transformers 4 and Apes 2 was it lol, from early June to GotG. 

 

Summer 2015 has plenty of tentpoles throughout, so F4 has its work cut out for it. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

In order to maintain a healthy balance between domestic product and Hollywood fare, SARFT (The State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television) imposes an annual blackout "month" on most imported films. This weekend begins the month or more-long protection period and sees 14 new films enter cinemas...

 

...Finally, Jurassic World will be losing most of its screens this weekend due to the protection period, but we still see the hot ticket in China placing in the top 3 and ending its run over $200 million. 

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2015-06-23-hollywood-adventures-poised-to-become-first-local-summer-blockbuster-as-protection-period-starts-in-full-force

 

Universal had their cake and ate it too with Furious 7 in China. In a way, glad to see Jurassic get its legs severed at kneecaps. Fascinating stuff. Thanks, China!

Edited June 24, 2015 by JohnnyGossamer

[scoobysaurus]

I think it is you that is under estimating it.  TPM grossed 550 million in 1999.  That's without 3D and without IMAX.  Then when rereleased in 3D it grossed another 60 million.  There is a big following for SW internationally and the markets have expanded.  So I'm not sure why it's delusional to think that this new film can gross a billion dollars internationally.  And if it can hit 550-600 mill domestically, it will do about 1.6 billion.  Record breaking?  Maybe not.  But a huge gross nonetheless.

I never said it couldn't do a billion dollars worldwide. Not even once. I was just saying people were throwing around figures ranging from 1.7-2.5 billion dollars worldwide (and even beating Avatar WW). All I was saying is that it's better to keep expectations in check rather than being disappointed later when it (obviously) falls short.

 

I really doubt the overseas share can be over 60%. I'm not underestimating or predicting anything here, but merely basing my assumptions on what I'm seeing around me. I have a fairly large friends circle (age group 19-26) and most of them go to the cinema at least once or twice a week and barely anyone seems to be even curious about this movie, save for 2 or 3. There's not even a single reaction to star wars trailers or teasers at the cinema. The only merchandise that doesn't sell at toy stores here is the Star Wars stuff. And plus the whole franchise is associated with being nerdy and un-cool. The people who have given the franchise a chance by trying to watch the previous movies said they couldn't understand anything and it was a waste of time (I should have taken their advice and avoided it but I thought they're just being jaded). I'm not attacking anyone or SW over here but maybe it might be prudent to understand that it's not necessarily true if something's highly regarded in the US, it must also be liked everywhere else. 

 

Again, not jumping to conclusions but the movie-goers taste and interests in Dubai seem to be vastly similar to China and other parts of Asia. F&F and TF are huge here - bigger than most other movies. I remember reading somewhere on this forum (perhaps the SW: TFA thread) that the Chinese didn't really like the first 6 movies. People here were making fun of their complaints about characters and story but their claims and concerns are genuine. I don't get it - is it right to make fun of people from other countries if they don't share the same tastes as the US. Why are some foreign audiences "supposed" to like something when they're not even being entertained by it? When I first watched Star Wars hoping to understand the franchise and see what the hype is all about, the movies left me lost and bored. 

 

Let's start with the first one. We've got kids piloting planes, a queen who looks like Bram Stoker's Dracula, people riding Dino-camels in the middle of the desert, frog-creatures living in bubbles under the sea, talking humanoid-lobsters and last but not least, Liam Neeson as Jesus gets killed by a skinny Hellboy with a red laser sword! It gets even better (worse) once you get to the older 70's movies. There's a bunch of robots straight out of the Jetsons cartoon and we also have Cousin It from the Adam's family (Chewbacca?) as a main character! I tolerated all of this hoping at least the main character was as badass as people say he is. The dude in the black dress and helmet does nothing but stand around a table saying cheesy lines. In fact I had to stop watching halfway through Episode 5. Half of any SW movie is always a bunch of people having uninteresting conversations on a space ship. In fact if I had to pick the (relatively) entertaining movies from the franchise, it would be episode 2 and 3, which ironically are hated by SW's fanbase. When I go to the cinema I go there to be entertained, not left scratching my head thinking what the fuck did I just watch. I thought I must be the only one but apparently the vast majority of people I asked here either hated it or didn't care for it, except for a very vocal minority who claim to be "true SW fans".

 

Just thought I'd give you guys some insight into the perception of Star Wars in one of the most culturally diverse "overseas" countries. Oh and it's not that I'm not a fan of the genre. But when I think of space opera the first movie that comes to my mind is Guardians of the Galaxy. I'm not against older movies from the 70's and 80's either. I love franchises such as Indiana Jones, Alien and Terminator but SW just doesn't interest me. I'm a very open minded person though so if someone could care to explain to me what I'm missing, or how I could get myself to like Star Wars, I'd gladly give it a try (again).

 

As for my prediction, I'd say $700m dom and $800m OS+C. $1.5b WW. 

Edited June 24, 2015 by Scoobysaurus

[JohnnyGossamer]

Yikes. Love the passion though. But, uh, very, very few anticipate Episode VII coming anywhere near Avatar WW. I think some, not all, believe it could challenge Avatar DOM though.

[Ethan Hunt]

You think MI5 is doing $330 million DOM?

I'm thinking $190-230 million DOM.

Unlike TMNT, F4 isn't looking all that kid-friendly and seems pretty grim/depressing. Pixels is the TMNT this year - a panned tentpole that 'surprises' all of the fanboys by its solid BO performance.

I wouldn't be shocked at Ant-Man doing $140 million, but F4 isn't screaming breakout to me. Remember - summer 2014 was void of tentpoles in the second half of the summer. Transformers 4 and Apes 2 was it lol, from early June to GotG.

Summer 2015 has plenty of tentpoles throughout, so F4 has its work cut out for it.

No, I don't think MI5 will do as well as GOTG but I think 250-270M is going to happen.

I expect Fantastic Four to have excellent WoM, and TBH all my friends seem far more excited for it than Ant-Man, I'm thinking 55/175M for it

Edited June 24, 2015 by Ethan Hunt

[scoobysaurus]

Yikes. Love the passion though. But, uh, very, very few anticipate Episode VII coming anywhere near Avatar WW. I think some, not all, believe it could challenge Avatar DOM though.

I'll still watch TFA on opening night because I'm not a hater and I genuinely want to appreciate it if it does indeed capture my interest. Let's hope the 7th time's the charm for me. Perhaps they're making this a more "approachable" movie to cater to the foreign GA and young people, in addition to the existing fanbase. At least I hope so *fingers crossed*

 

In any case, all the best to SWTFA and its fanbase.

[KATCH-2D2]

No, I don't think MI5 will do as well as GOTG but I think 250-270M is going to happen.

I expect Fantastic Four to have excellent WoM, and TBH all my friends seem far more excited for it than Ant-Man, I'm thinking 55/175M for it

 

So am I. I just can't get myself excited for Ant Man at all. I'm going to watch it on it's opening week just like I did all other MCU movies but unlike the others I really have to drag myself to see this one.

[mahnamahna]

No, I don't think MI5 will do as well as GOTG but I think 250-270M is going to happen.

I expect Fantastic Four to have excellent WoM, and TBH all my friends seem far more excited for it than Ant-Man, I'm thinking 55/175M for it

So you think MI5 is going to do better than Minions? 

 

How can you think Minions will do $220 million DOM, when you're predicting MI5 to do $250-270 million DOM? It's blatantly obvious Minions has more anticipation among the average Joe than MI5. 

 

I just don't feel the hype for MI5 that I feel with Pixels or Minions (among average Joes). I think all 3 will do very well, but MI5 would have to be Skyfall-level quality in order to do $250 million+ DOM. 

 

F4 should do decent enough... but you have to remember that it's grittier/darker than TMNT, so the family demo likely won't show up in droves. I'd like to see F4 do $175 million, but unless it's a good movie (with how troubled its production has been I doubt it), I don't see more than $130-140 million DOM. 

 

I'd love to see Ant-Man and F4 both do really well, though 

[Ethan Hunt]

So you think MI5 is going to do better than Minions?

How can you think Minions will do $220 million DOM, when you're predicting MI5 to do $250-270 million DOM? It's blatantly obvious Minions has more anticipation among the average Joe than MI5.

I just don't feel the hype for MI5 that I feel with Pixels or Minions (among average Joes). I think all 3 will do very well, but MI5 would have to be Skyfall-level quality in order to do $250 million+ DOM.

F4 should do decent enough... but you have to remember that it's grittier/darker than TMNT, so the family demo likely won't show up in droves. I'd like to see F4 do $175 million, but unless it's a good movie (with how troubled its production has been I doubt it), I don't see more than $130-140 million DOM.

I'd love to see Ant-Man and F4 both do really well, though

Minions does not have more anticipation than M:I 5

I think the two have somewhat similar openings. But Minions will have weak legs for an animation. It doesn't have key characters from the franchise. Where as MI5 will deliver a great summer action movie; plus its following up Edge of Tomorrow and Ghost Protocol which should mean Cruise is in some pretty good graces right now.

[PDC1987]

watch Ted 2 open up to something ridiculous like 90 million now. Lol. It would just make sense seeing how crazy the box office has been there for the last 2 weeks.

It's poised to explode, no raunchy/R rated comedy has hit $100 million this year and it's the sequel to a film that quadrupled a $54 million OW.

[WrathOfHan]

I'm predicting 67M right now for Ted 2. The reviews are slightly below the original (too early to tell as there's only 9 on RT) so it's not like there's going to be a giant quality drop.

[PDC1987]

Minions does not have more anticipation than M:I 5

I think the two have somewhat similar openings. But Minions will have weak legs for an animation. It doesn't have key characters from the franchise. Where as MI5 will deliver a great summer action movie; plus its following up Edge of Tomorrow and Ghost Protocol which should mean Cruise is in some pretty good graces right now.

DM2 literally grossed $150 million more than MI4.

[mahnamahna]

Minions does not have more anticipation than M:I 5

I think the two have somewhat similar openings. But Minions will have weak legs for an animation. It doesn't have key characters from the franchise. Where as MI5 will deliver a great summer action movie; plus its following up Edge of Tomorrow and Ghost Protocol which should mean Cruise is in some pretty good graces right now.

Tell that to the people who were laughing like crazy during a trailer... before JW/IO - two massive breakouts. Awareness for Minions is sky-high. Similar to Ted 2 (trailers attached to most JW showings) 

 

Little kids have nothing to go see until September 25th once Minions comes out. Shaun + Underdogs should combine to $15-20 million DOM, so not really competition. MI5 will have to compete with Ant-Man, Pixels, Minions (takes away some teens), F4, and UNCLE. Minions only has IO and Pixels to a lesser degree. 

 

Minions isn't going to have MI5's $65-75 million OW  way too much going for it. That would be the underperformance of the summer. And likely would mean a 3.5x-4x so it would still do $250-300 million. More than MI5's likely $200-220 million DOM. 

Edited June 24, 2015 by mahnamahna

[Ethan Hunt]

DM2 literally grossed $150 million more than MI4.

What's your point. This isn't DM2, which was the peak of the franchise and Minions is seeing a big drop.

M:I on the other hand is in the up swing

[Ethan Hunt]

Tell that to the people who were laughing like crazy during a trailer... before JW/IO - two massive breakouts. Awareness for Minions is sky-high. Similar to Ted 2 (trailers attached to most JW showings)

Little kids have nothing to go see until September 25th once Minions comes out. Shaun + Underdogs should combine to $15-20 million DOM, so not really competition. MI5 will have to compete with Ant-Man, Pixels, Minions (takes away some teens), F4, and UNCLE. Minions only has IO and Pixels to a lesser degree.

Minions isn't going to have MI5's $65-75 million OW way too much going for it. That would be the underperformance of the summer. And likely would mean a 3.5x-4x so it would still do $250-300 million. More than MI5's likely $200-220 million DOM.

I have them both opening 85-90M

[Ethan Hunt]

And if you think 230-250M is a disappointment for Minions than be prepared for disappointment