Prediction: All upcoming summer movies barring Minions and Antman will flop/disappointt

[marveldcfox]

Jurassic World and Inside Out have sucked all the oxygen out of the market. People are watching these movies again and again due to which other movies have no chance of doing well.

Only 2 upcoming movies will do well - Minions (duh) and Antman (marvel brand + great reviews + original movie)

In June the combo of JW & IO hurt Ted2, TG and MM2.

In July the combo of Minions & AM (I expect both to have a sizeable opening...minimum 85m each..have a feeling one is gonna outperform on opening weekend) will hurt other movies releasing against them and after. Oh and JW & IO will still be posting good numbers.

Rest of them, I am afraid, will suffer badly because people only have so much money to spend at the movies.

Minimum each movie has to gross to not be considered a disappointment or flop

1. Minions - 300

3. Antman - 180

4. Train wreck - 80

5. Pixels - 150

6. Paper towns - 70

7. Southpaw - 50

8. Mission Impossible - 200

9. Vacation - 80

10. Fantastic Four - 100

11. Ricki and Flash - 40

12. Shaun the sheep - 30

13. The gift - 30

14. Straight from Compton - 70

15. Man from Uncle - 80

16. Agent47 - 40

17. American Ultra - 40

18. Masterminds - 40

If I have missed the rest then that means I am not aware of them

Edited July 2, 2015 by marveldcfox

[WrathOfHan]

Mission Impossible has a strong chance of increasing from GP.

[Asyulus]

Rogue Nation, Pixels?

[JennaJ]

If other movies aren't doing well, I'd say that's mostly because those movies aren't appealing enough and don't manage to attract an audience.

I don't think it's due to JW and IO "Sucking all the oxygen out of the market".

That may be true for a short period of time, but I hardly think JW being a smash is what killed TG this week. TG would've been fine if it wasn't such a poorly marketed turd.

Ted 2 is another case where the product itself didn't get people hyped, so it didn't just flop because it had competition.

 

There's not a lot that looks promising to me on the upcoming slate, but that would be the case whether or not JW and IO were dominating.

Edited July 2, 2015 by JennaJ

[Asyulus]

If other movies aren't doing well, I'd say that's mostly because those movies aren't appealing enough and don't manage to attract an audience.

I don't think it's due to JW and IO "Sucking all the oxygen out of the market".

That may be true for a short period of time, but I hardly think JW being a smash is what killed TG this week. TG wouldn've been fine if it wasn't such a poorly marketed turd.

Ted 2 is another case where the product itself didn't get people hyped, so it didn't just flop because it had competition.

 

There's not a lot that looks promising to me on the upcoming slate, but that would be the case whether or not JW and IO were dominating.

Your right, Ted 2 did not flop, budget was only $45m, that seems good considering tough competition.

[CJohn]

Ant-Man is gonna disappoint. MI5 and Pixels won't. F4 doesn't have much room to disappoint, most are expecting 110-120M DOM total.

[JennaJ]

Your right, Ted 2 did not flop, budget was only $45m, that seems good considering tough competition.

 

Not what I said at all. Also not true at all.

[Asyulus]

Ant-Man is gonna disappoint. MI5 and Pixels won't. F4 doesn't have much room to disappoint, most are expecting 110-120M DOM total.

F4 is the one going to dissapoint, marketing is poor, much unlike Ant-Man which had good action scenes.

[Ethan Hunt]

LMAO

[SuperBatman]

I keep on forgetting that Fantastic Four is coming out this summer maybe that's a good thing. Ant-Man is already getting good WOM so that can go either way.

[electric storm]

Well I guess that depends what people's expectations for Ant Man are because I can see that one "dissapointing" as well.

Edited July 2, 2015 by electric storm

[CJohn]

F4 is the one going to dissapoint, marketing is poor, much unlike Ant-Man which had good action scenes.

Must of us are only predicting 110M DOM for it. Less than that is a monster failure.

[BenedictL11]

Jurassic World and Inside Out have sucked all the oxygen out of the market. People are watching these movies again and again due to which other movies have no chance of doing well.

Only 2 upcoming movies will do well - Minions (duh) and Antman (marvel brand + great reviews + original movie)

In June the combo of JW & IO hurt Ted2, TG and MM2.

In July the combo of Minions & AM (I expect both to have a sizeable opening...minimum 85m each..have a feeling one is gonna outperform on opening weekend) will hurt other movies releasing against them and after. Oh and JW & IO will still be posting good numbers.

Rest of them, I am afraid, will suffer badly because people only have so much money to spend at the movies.

Who's in?

Out for sure.

 

Minions will obviously be a huge hit.

 

MI5, Trainwreck, Pixels, and Vacation should do well. Straight Outta Compton and FF4 could go either way. Ant Man will open $55-60M but no more than Thor's opening (unadjusted for inflation).

[BourneFan #1]

Out, MI5 will make lots of cash and Pixels will be a surprise hit.

[SuperBatman]

I think August will suffer more than July to be honest there is not really any good movies that will break out in August.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Nope. Did you cook this up because TG is somewhat bombing out? I mean, that's been expected for a long while. MMXXL appears to be performing as expected too against a relatively modest budget. Ant-Man will do at least $150M+ DOM, Pixels at least $125M+ DOM, Rouge Nation at least $175M+ DOM.

[BenedictL11]

I think August will suffer more than July to be honest there is not really any good movies that will break out in August.

The only film I can think of that will do well in August is Straight Outta Compton and possibly Masterminds. Ricki and The Flash, Sinister 2 and The Man from UNCLE might do fine. FF4 is a wild card and is coming off a franchise that did not have good reception (B in cinemascore & under 6.0 in imdb for both). The rest in August will do blah numbers.

[The Dark Alfred]

It's not wise to open a vague thread without predictions. Disappointments varies. Set a target for each film and we can discuss, otherwise this is pointless.

[K1stpierre]

It's not wise to open a vague thread without predictions. Disappointments varies. Set a target for each film and we can discuss, otherwise this is pointless.

I agree with this, this club is vague. Dissapointmrnt can be seen in multiple perspectives, not to even mention the difference between what we think is a flop and what from a business perspective is a flop. I suggest doing what stellar says and make bars or over/under parameters for movies. You have 24 hours to comply.

Edited July 2, 2015 by K1stpierre

[AniNate]

What do you define as "disappointing"?