Cruddy Weekend Estimates: A-M 24.77m, Pix 24m, Minions 22m, Trainwreck 17.2m, Southpaw 16.5m, PT 12.5m,

[Ryan Reynolds]

wow bigger drop than expected for Ant-Man?

[Blankments]

Summer movies I saw last year:

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY

TRANSFORMERS: AGE OF EXTINCTION

MALEFICENT

X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST

DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN II

GODZILLA

TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON II

LUCY

EDGE OF TOMORROW

HERCULES

 

I don't think I'll see as many this year.

I saw last year:

 

The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Million Dollar Arm

Godzilla

Neighbors

Chef

22 Jump Street

How to Train Your Dragon 2

Maleficent

Edge of Tomorrow

The Fault in Our Stars

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Snowpiercer

Begin Again

Guardians of the Galaxy

Boyhood

Lucy

A Most Wanted Man

Into the Storm

The Hundred-Foot Journey

Magic in the Moonlight

 

 

This summer so far I've seen:

 

Avengers: Age of Ultron

Mad Max: Fury Road

Tomorrowland

Pitch Perfect 2

San Andreas

Jurassic World

Inside Out

Spy

Ant-Man

Mr. Holmes

Pixels

Minions

[Avatree]

Worth bearing in mind about Ant-Man - Guardians of the Galaxy had a similarly steep drop in its second weekend; its later legs are what pulled it to 300M and a 3.5x.

[Fake]

How is this a bad drop for Ant-Man? Its 2nd weekend will be pretty close to CA 2nd weekend, despite opening considerably lower.

 

150M is almost locked, and even 160M may be possible.

[Avatree]

How is this a bad drop for Ant-Man? Its 2nd weekend will be pretty close to CA 2nd weekend, despite opening considerably lower.

 

150M is almost locked, and even 160M may be possible.

With a lower opening and a real lack of competition, it really shouldn't be bordering on -60%. This is the weekend it gets on its own before Mission Impossible and Fantastic Four brush against it.

Edited July 25, 2015 by Tree-5000

[Ethan Hunt]

Yeah Ant-Man's second Friday drop isn't much worse that Gaurdian's

[grim22]

Worth bearing in mind about Ant-Man - Guardians of the Galaxy had a similarly steep drop in its second weekend; its later legs are what pulled it to 300M and a 3.5x.

GOTG also had one of the worst Augusts on record post TMNT, we went 5 weeks with a GOTG-TMNT top 2, that is how bad the new releases were that month. It gave TMNT a 3.2X as well.

GOTG also held on to IMAX for those 5 weeks, Ant-Man loses IMAX and a few PLF screens next week and the remaining PLF screens the week after.

Edited July 25, 2015 by grim22

[Avatree]

GOTG also had one of the worst Augusts on record post TMNT, we went 5 weeks with a GOTG-TMNT top 2, that is how bad the new releases were that month. It gave TMNT a 3.2X as well.

I know, and obviously with two major action films releasing in the next couple of weeks, it's gonna be a lot more difficult for AM. I just think it's something that needs to be reminded of:)

[bladels]

It's tracking a bit below TS3 at the same point during its run, TS3 made 9 million in its 6th weekend, IO will do around 7.7 or 7.6

TS3 made 35 million after its 6th weekend. (so IO is around 15% behind it at the same point).

IO: 313 + (85% x 35) = 29.75 = 343 million, 

I would say between 345 and 348 million DOM

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=toystory3.htm

You forgot to add IO's 6th weekend ( ~7.6M) to its total

320.6 + 29.75= 350.35M.

[GiantCALBears]

JW hold means missing $660m is all but assured now. $650m seems more realistic.

[TServo2049]

I remember someone predicted it would cross $650M but still end up behind Titanic. Who was that?

[Ethan Hunt]

I remember someone predicted it would cross $650M but still end up behind Titanic. Who was that?

A lot of people

[GiantCALBears]

I remember someone predicted it would cross $650M but still end up behind Titanic. Who was that?

I've discussed that a few times, but can't be only one. It's very possible, more likely though is it ends closer to $650m or even barely misses it.

[Dementeleus]

Redfirebird's been projecting that for quite awhile.

[MinaTakla]

You forgot to add IO's 6th weekend ( ~7.6M) to its total

320.6 + 29.75= 350.35M.

Right - thanks for fixing!

[grim22]

There is definitely a box office vacuum which Rogue Nation can fill next week. Only 2 or 3 of the holdovers will likely be above 10M next week. That is a perfectly depressed box office ready for a breakout.

Vacation may do around 30-35M for the 5 day opening leaving the rest of the field wide open for Mission Impossible. If Paramount picks up the marketing in a big way, we might see a 75M+ bow.

[Fake]

I know, and obviously with two major action films releasing in the next couple of weeks, it's gonna be a lot more difficult for AM. I just think it's something that needs to be reminded of:)

I know..... and even with 50-55% drops on these two weekends, it will still finish with 150M+, which is very good for a superhero like Ant-Man.

[GiantCALBears]

There is definitely a box office vacuum which Rogue Nation can fill next week. Only 2 or 3 of the holdovers will likely be above 10M next week. That is a perfectly depressed box office ready for a breakout.

Vacation may do around 30-35M for the 5 day opening leaving the rest of the field wide open for Mission Impossible. If Paramount picks up the marketing in a big way, we might see a 75M+ bow.

Nah we won't see $75m, very little chance that happens.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

Inside Out

Pitch Perfect 2

Age of Ultron

IO

MM

JW

PT

Spy

PP2 was not released here yet :/

[Avatree]

There is definitely a box office vacuum which Rogue Nation can fill next week. Only 2 or 3 of the holdovers will likely be above 10M next week. That is a perfectly depressed box office ready for a breakout.

Vacation may do around 30-35M for the 5 day opening leaving the rest of the field wide open for Mission Impossible. If Paramount picks up the marketing in a big way, we might see a 75M+ bow.

The fact that you are saying "If the studio picks up the marketing" just 5 days before the film opens is pretty telling, tbh.