Cruddy Weekend Estimates: A-M 24.77m, Pix 24m, Minions 22m, Trainwreck 17.2m, Southpaw 16.5m, PT 12.5m,

[Fancyarcher]

I remember TFIOS the book being huge even before the movie. I do not follow YA literature at all, but I knew about it. I had never heard any mention of Paper Towns the book leaking into the larger zeitgeist.

Comparing book-to-film, this seems to be the Congo to TFIOS' Jurassic Park. (And yes, I know Congo was not a bomb, but it was another example of a big hit adaptation of a book being followed by a less big adaptation of a similar book by the same author.)

 

Disclosure was the next Crichton book to adapted after Jurassic Park, not Congo, so not really a good comparison at all.

Edited July 26, 2015 by Insidearcher

[kowan]

Should be a decent chance of that. Universal projecting 34.5% Sunday drop (compared to 33% last Sunday) even though Saturday only jumped 38% compared to last Saturday's 50% increase. Assuming Friday and Saturday numbers hold, it would need a 31% Sunday drop to hit $7m actuals. Very doable.

Yeah, I was curious about the Sunday drop, especially considering the Friday and Saturday increases(especially the low Friday increase). Hopefully it does get above 7m.

[Planodisney]

IO will pass 350. It's having a more similar run to DM2 than Toy Story 3. It's tracking above DM2 and DM2 made 30 million with a 5x multiplier from this point. It's tracking below TS3 which also had a 5x multiplier and earned another 45 million. I would put IO somewhere in the middle to end 355-360. Would that put it #2 behind Frozen for an original animated movie?

[Durden]

@BoxOffice

PIXELS: $25.4M Overseas Total / $49.4M Global Total #Pixels

[Ethan Hunt]

(Directed Rogue Nation)

“Your mission, shall you chose to.accept it... Save the box office"

[TServo2049]

Disclosure was the next Crichton book to adapted after Jurassic Park, not Congo, so not really a good comparison at all.

You're right. I was just thinking of Congo because the JP connection was promoted heavily in its pre-release.

Actually, Disclosure and Congo grossed about the same domestically, and cost about the same. Even though no other Crichton adaptation was expected to gross as much as JP1 did, my point was that a great performance from a particular book from a particular author doesn't always translate into equal success for film adaptations their other books. I know there have to be examples besides Crichton.

Maybe Angels and Demons? (Even though that was a sequel/prequel based on a previous book with the same character.)

The Host did not succeed just because it was from the author of Twilight, it could not get the same target audience to show up.

Edited July 26, 2015 by TServo2049

[MinaTakla]

A few interesting points about Minions:

- Its 17 days are still above DM2's total which shows how Minions was more frontloaded than DM2, and that unlike all the FLOPS being thrown at it, it is a huge success. And will end up in the top 10 animated DOM.

- While word of mouth is said to be mixed in the US, seems this isn't the case world wide with its -30% drop from last week OS shows the WOM is good. It also shows OS audiences are seeing it as a DM3 while audiences DOM are not.

- I don't think it is a Shrek domestically, I would actually argue it boosts DM3's chances as a good portion of audiences now feel hungry for Gru to be back etc rather than getting tired of the franchise (as in Shrek's case)

- I think it ends up at around 330 DOM if it recovers from here, 325 if it keeps dropping hard, 320 million if it keeps falling even faster. (experts, chime in cuz I think that's the realistic scenario for it DOM). Next week's totals get smaller so a 0.5 or 1 million difference won't have that much of an impact on end of run grosses that much unlike its 2nd and 3rd weekend drops.

- I personally don't think it's OS/WW grosses will be affected by its DOM. Before July, people expected the film to gross around 280 million or 300 million and the fact it ends around that means the Uni. marketing just made everyone wanting to see it on week 1 and that, along with not wow WOM especially among some adults, just meant that its legs will not be that great.

- The bigger picture DOM is always the final total (FF7 made a 2.4 mult but people remember it as a huge success still) and WW is the wider indicator of global success. Right now, it's at around 760 WW. I also don't see it flopping in China nor being a FF7 size monster hit. 

On that front, it surprassed expectations.

And so did JW and IO. And AoU WW. 

My two cents.

Edited July 26, 2015 by MinaTakla

[Fancyarcher]

You're right. I was just thinking of Congo because the JP connection was promoted heavily in its pre-release.

Actually, Disclosure and Congo grossed about the same domestically, and cost about the same. Even though no other Crichton adaptation was expected to gross as much as JP1 did, my point was that a great performance from a particular book from a particular author doesn't always translate into equal success for film adaptations their other books. I know there have to be examples besides Crichton.

Maybe Angels and Demons? (Even though that was a sequel/prequel based on a previous book with the same character.)

The Host did not succeed just because it was from the author of Twilight, it could not get the same target audience to show up.

 

Really, Paper Towns will be lucky to make much as Disclosure (which was considered a success), and Congo did unadjusted, and JP wasn't even the first Crichton adaptation to begin with, it was actually the ninth movie based off on of his books, so Crichton isn't even a good example to begin with.

Edited July 26, 2015 by Insidearcher

[TServo2049]

IO will pass 350. It's having a more similar run to DM2 than Toy Story 3. It's tracking above DM2 and DM2 made 30 million with a 5x multiplier from this point. It's tracking below TS3 which also had a 5x multiplier and earned another 45 million. I would put IO somewhere in the middle to end 355-360. Would that put it #2 behind Frozen for an original animated movie?

In terms of lifetime, #4 behind The Lion King, Frozen and Finding Nemo. In terms of original runs, yes, #2. Though if you consider Frozen an adaptation of The Snow Queen (albeit extremely loose - still, there was an onscreen credit acknowledging the source inspiration) IO would be #1 for first-run and #3 for lifetime with those numbers.

And Archer, points all well taken. I chose a weak analogy with Crichton. I was trying to argue that the book itself drove TFIOS' success, not the author. I tried to cap it off with a clever comparison, but I blew it.

Edited July 26, 2015 by TServo2049

[Wrath]

Amy was so good. It crushed me.

I actually didn't like Amy. I mean, it was a great insight into who she was as a person and her journey, but it also felt... Vouyeristic.

There wasnt some central theme or point. We were just peeking in her windows as her life went on. Also, it felt like the movie went to some pains to make clear who the "good guys" and "bad guys" were in her life, from which you could pretty easily tell who was behind making the movie and settling their scores (spoiler: record label and ex-manager).

So, good movie, but I felt a little queasy.

Edit: Mr Holmes was good, but slow paced. Its Sherlock Holmes at age 93 looking back on his life so I'm not sure it'd be for everyone. Think post-WW2 english period piece. Average age in tge audience was probably 70.

Edit2: MM2 should hit a 5x mult on Tuesday. With good holds it can probably get to a 6x. One of those weird side-effects of an early open.

Edited July 26, 2015 by Wrath

[PDC1987]

It's called people have seen this movie multiple times to the point where it's time to move on... Shit happens and movie's fall eventually... You act shocked for a movie that dropped like this did for a movie that's made what it has so far

Time to move on. With a 39% weekend drop against three new openers and after losing more theaters?

[CJohn]

And to rub salt in the wound: this June missed the record by...$10 million. Even with the JW/IO combo, Ted 2 or Spy was enough to ruin it.

I blame the first weekend. 

Edited July 26, 2015 by CJohn

[PDC1987]

Aloha could also be blamed for tanking June. Or Entourage lol.

[grim22]

TED 2: $74.0M Overseas Total / $153.6M Global Total #Ted2

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

July 26, 2015

 
This is an unbelievable drop from the first one both Domestic and WW. Even Hangover 3 only dropped 70M in OS markets. How the hell did this happen? Ted was pretty well liked - I mean no one actively hated it. The marketing was "More of the same" which worked for comedy sequels like 22JS and Hangover 2 before, the star cast was returning (minus Mila Kunis) and it was pretty much a solo release and the first R-rated comedy in 4 weeks. This is truly head-scratching.

Edited July 26, 2015 by grim22

[CJohn]

 

 

TED 2: $74.0M Overseas Total / $153.6M Global Total #Ted2

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice) July 26, 2015

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

This is an unbelievable drop from the first one both Domestic and WW. Even Hangover 3 only dropped 70M in OS markets. How the hell did this happen? Ted was pretty well liked - I mean no one actively hated it. The marketing was "More of the same" which worked for comedy sequels like 22JS and Hangover 2 before, the star cast was returning (minus Mila Kunis) and it was pretty much a solo release and the first R-rated comedy in 4 weeks. This is truly head-scratching.

 

It has been doing fine in Portugal, the drop will be small compared to other countries, I guess it is a win

 

I feel it was released 1 year too late. Should have come out last year.

Edited July 26, 2015 by CJohn

[GiantCALBears]

Nice solid jumps for the attached at the hip combo of JW and IO.

Meh not great.

[baumer]

Hey, you can only see a movie so many times before you simply move on.. Let's not over think this..

It's still got a great chance to pass Titan and it whooped some Avenger butt.

[GiantCALBears]

It's still got a great chance to pass Titan and it whooped some Avenger butt.

Not a great chance anymore B.

[PDC1987]

Hey, you can only see a movie so many times before you simply move on.. Let's not over think this..

I'm challenging your contrived assertion that people have "moved on" from JW when it only dropped 39% this weekend despite 3 openers and losing theaters.

[PDC1987]

It's still got a great chance to pass Titan and it whooped some Avenger butt.

It will match/surpass TA's multiplier on Wednesday too.