BadAtGender Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The Martian - 41m Sicario - 11m The Walk - 6m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ali Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The Martian - $65M Sicario - $15M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 (edited) MARTIAN: $44m SICARO: $9m WALK: $3m Edited September 29, 2015 by TalismanRing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 How is this different from http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/16347-weekend-predict-thread-2nd-thread-102-104/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Martian - 58.112M Sicario - 15.923M The Walk - 8.383M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BourneFan #1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 How is this different from http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/16347-weekend-predict-thread-2nd-thread-102-104/ Wrath puts all our averages together and compares them to the actuals and other websites. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PanaMovie Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Martian - 52.1M Sicario - 17.1M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Crap! I forgot to put in my own predicts. For posterity, I was going to go with 58m for Martian, and then pull something out of my ass for Sicario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 (edited) The fun gets kicked up a notch! Our predicts this week are all kinda... well, non-descript, honestly. Which is fine. The ratios (Stndev/Mean) for all 3 movies are right about where you'd expect, and our Martian and Sicario predicts are pretty close to the middle of the pack compared to the other predictors, though we're modestly optimistic about The Walk. As usual, I went through the various predicts (25 for The Martian, 24 for Sicario and 11 for The Walk) and here's what we ended up with: The Martian Mean: 52.5M Median: 53.0M StnDev: 7.74M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 14.74% High: 66.0M Low: 37.3M BO.com 56M ComingSoon.com 49M Deadline 42M ScreenRant.com 52M Variety 45M Sicario Mean: 12.5M Median: 12.5M StnDev: 3.57M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 28.53% High: 19.2M Low 7.5M BO.com 14.3M ComingSoon.com 12M Deadline 9M ScreenRant.com Variety 9M The Walk (IMAX) Mean: 5.0M Median: 4.5M StnDev: 1.93M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 38.59% High: 8.4M Low 3.0M BO.com 4.2M ComingSoon.com 2.6M Deadline 3M ScreenRant.com Variety 3.5M Edited October 1, 2015 by Wrath 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We're going to have a horrible stndev on The Walk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 (edited) *BOOM*. Now THAT was some good predicting. Ok, The Walk wasn't so hot, but *damn* did we do well on the other two. Martian Prediction: 52.5M +/- 7.74M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 54.3M (off by 1.8M, so 0.23 stndev) Darn good. Our 5th most accurate predict (#1 was MI:5 which we called almost exactly perfectly, Minions was #3, and The Gallows was #4. I'll get back to #2 in a minute.) and while everyone was pretty close on it, we essentially tied with BO.com for the best predict. Ethan Hunt had the best predict at 54M. Interestingly, while we called it pretty closely, we actually had a decent range on our predicts, they just all averaged out to the right place. Sicario Prediction: 12.5M +/- 3.57M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 12.1M (off by 0.4M, so 0.12 stndev) Second best predict ever, very narrowly edging out Minions (0.119 stndev vs 0.121). Comingsoon.com edged us for the best overall predict (their 12.0 beat our 12.5) but we were dramatically closer than everyone else. Hilariously, our collective predict was *much* better than every single individual predict, as not one person turned in a predict anywhere between 11 and 14. Best predict was a tie at 11 between DAJK and DamienRoc. The Walk (PLF release) Prediction: 5.0M +/- 1.93M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 1.6M (off by 3.4M, so 1.76 stndev) Well, they can't all be winners. Fortunately, we had a big stndev so the result wasn't as bad as it probably looked, though it was still pretty bad. No one else did well either, but we picked the wrong movie to "go big" on, relative to the field. I'd be surprised if anyone else tries the "PLF to Wide" release strategy again anytime soon. Best predict was a tie between TalismanRing and WrathofHan at 3.0M. Edited October 6, 2015 by Wrath 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 (edited) Ooh, I just noticed something else. WrathofHan is the last person standing in terms of turning in a valid predict for every movie we've done so far (38 for those scoring at home). This was something I'd been pondering in the back of my head, but as will soon be obvious I didn't realize how close we'd gotten. It turns out that prior to last weekend we were down to three people who had predicted for every single movie: Me, DAJK, and WrathofHan. I, embarrassingly, simply forgot, not realizing the title was in reach. DAJK, however, was eliminated on a bit of a technicality as he (I'm pretty sure DAJK is a he) did turn in a predict for every movie, but it was a 5-day predict for The Walk instead of a 3-day. So, sorry about that DAJK . The people who've submitted 30 or more predicts are: WrathofHan 38 DAJK 37 Wrath 35 Cjohn 33 Maxmoser3 32 Ethan Hunt 31 mahnamahna 31 DamienRoc 30 One thing that's kinda funny is that I have indeed been including predicts made in the Weekend Predict thread. So there are people who have quite a few predicts (like bapi at 28) but I don't think have been into one of these threads in quite some time and may have no idea this is even going on. Their lack of intent has no bearing on my appreciation for their dilligence! Also, in case anyone is curious, 91 different people have submitted at least 1 predict, and there are 7 people who have submitted exactly 1 predict. Most notable is Halba, who made one predict (26M for Fantastic Four), won the closest predict for that movie, and hasn't predicted anything since. Edited October 6, 2015 by Wrath 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Ooh, I just noticed something else. WrathofHan is the last person standing in terms of turning in a valid predict for every movie we've done so far (38 for those scoring at home). This was something I'd been pondering in the back of my head, but as will soon be obvious I didn't realize how close we'd gotten. It turns out that prior to last weekend we were down to three people who had predicted for every single movie: Me, DAJK, and WrathofHan. I, embarrassingly, simply forgot, not realizing the title was in reach. DAJK, however, was eliminated on a bit of a technicality as he (I'm pretty sure DAJK is a he) did turn in a predict for every movie, but it was a 5-day predict for The Walk instead of a 3-day. So, sorry about that DAJK . The people who've submitted 30 or more predicts are: WrathofHan 38 DAJK 37 Wrath 35 Cjohn 33 Maxmoser3 32 Ethan Hunt 31 mahnamahna 31 DamienRoc 30 One thing that's kinda funny is that I have indeed been including predicts made in the Weekend Predict thread. So there are people who have quite a few predicts (like bapi at 28) but may have no idea this is even going on. Also, in case anyone is curious, 91 different people have submitted at least 1 predict, and there are 7 people who have submitted exactly 1 predict. Most notable is Halba, who made one predict (26M for Fantastic Four), won the closest predict for that movie, and hasn't predicted anything since. The Wrath cannot be contained 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Ooh, I just noticed something else. WrathofHan is the last person standing in terms of turning in a valid predict for every movie we've done so far (38 for those scoring at home). This was something I'd been pondering in the back of my head, but as will soon be obvious I didn't realize how close we'd gotten. It turns out that prior to last weekend we were down to three people who had predicted for every single movie: Me, DAJK, and WrathofHan. I, embarrassingly, simply forgot, not realizing the title was in reach. DAJK, however, was eliminated on a bit of a technicality as he (I'm pretty sure DAJK is a he) did turn in a predict for every movie, but it was a 5-day predict for The Walk instead of a 3-day. So, sorry about that DAJK . The people who've submitted 30 or more predicts are: WrathofHan 38 DAJK 37 Wrath 35 Cjohn 33 Maxmoser3 32 Ethan Hunt 31 mahnamahna 31 DamienRoc 30 One thing that's kinda funny is that I have indeed been including predicts made in the Weekend Predict thread. So there are people who have quite a few predicts (like bapi at 28) but I don't think have been into one of these threads in quite some time and may have no idea this is even going on. Their lack of intent has no bearing on my appreciation for their dilligence! Also, in case anyone is curious, 91 different people have submitted at least 1 predict, and there are 7 people who have submitted exactly 1 predict. Most notable is Halba, who made one predict (26M for Fantastic Four), won the closest predict for that movie, and hasn't predicted anything since. Nobody's got time for technicalities Congrats WrathofHan! now I just have to wait for you to miss a week 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
