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kayumanggi

Weekend Estimates 01.13 - 01.15

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Contraband does much better than it should. We get this kind of movie all the time and they usually open to about half this much. When people are coming out to see anything (not naming names (The Devil Inside)), I guess everything does really well. Beauty and the Beast isn't The Lion King but even in the 90s TLK doubled Beauty's gross. It's still doing extremely well for a re-release. An underwhelming hold for MI4 considering it loses IMAX next weekend. Still, it should reach MI2's total, which is stellar. Joyful Noise, whatever, I just learned it existed this week. Sherlock is still holding on, 200m is unrealistic but it'll certainly get close. Dragon Tattoo should end near 110m after Oscar nominations give it a slight boost. TDI falls just as much as everyone expected and won't break 60m. Alvin will end around 135m, maybe not quite enough for a fourth movie. War Horse is still doing just okay and probably won't pass 90m. Nothing unexpected from Zoo or Tintin, Iron Lady expands well but probably won't do much better after this weekend. Carnage expectedly flops.

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Interestingly enough, this 3-day weekend is on par with 2010's. Its certainly a good sign that people are coming out to see movies that otherwise look like better choices for Redbox/Netflix/OD ... but I think its also crucial to remember that at this time last year we had a ton of Oscar films doing really well. This year couldn't be much different with such an unappealing slate of awards contenders, so general audiences seem to be finding other options.With the $116m estimated top 12 gross this weekend, that's only about $500-600k more than the same 3-day weekend last year. Interesting. Better than dropping, though.

Edited by ShawnMR
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Interestingly enough, this 3-day weekend is on par with 2010's. Its certainly a good sign that people are coming out to see movies that otherwise look like better choices for Redbox/Netflix/OD ... but I think its also crucial to remember that at this time last year we had a ton of Oscar films doing really well. This year couldn't be much different with such an unappealing slate of awards contenders, so general audiences seem to be finding other options.With the $116m estimated top 12 gross this weekend, that's only about $500-600k more than the same 3-day weekend last year. Interesting. Better than dropping, though.

Agree.. Its really different this year.. Small movies breaking out and Oscar movies laying really low on the radar..Nice that it's still unpredicable some times..
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I'm amazed that Contraband did that well, but I guess that I shouldn't be -- it has been nearly a month since the relases of MI4 and SH2, after all, so action audiences were probably hungry for something new. Well, they should get their fill over the next few weeks.I do wish Beauty and the Beast had done better, since I think it's really a much better movie than The Lion King, but it still did quite respectably. I'm afraid the 3-day number will drop with the next set of estimates tomorrow, though -- that 8.3% Sunday drop seems highly optimistic. But, hey, if TLK could manage a 22% drop on a non holiday weekend, maybe it's not out of the question after all.Joyful Noise did fine for what it is.MI4 and SH2 are still holding well, but I admit that I was hoping for slightly better holds from both. Apart from each other, they've had pretty much a clear field for the action-adventure audience since they opened -- I don't think War Horse, TGWTDT and TTSS fit into quite the same category or appeal to quite the same audience, though I'm sure there is some overlap. I'm glad, though not surprised, that Contraband didn't hurt them too badly, but with the next two weeks featuring six movies which can be categorized as action in one way or another, I'm afraid the late legs won't be quite as good.And it's really too bad that TTSS couldn't hold better. I suspect the culprit there was a combination of Iron Lady and Contraband (probably more the former than the latter). It makes me sad, though, since TTSS is easily one of my favorite movies of last year.

Edited by Chrestomanci
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i don't think i saw beauty and the beast when it came out in theatre ,so i'm def looking forward to seeing it on the big screen, i knew all the dialogue songs included when i was younger, which happens when you leave a kid watch a movie at least once a day or more on weekends, that VHS got played to no end!

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