Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology

[cdsacken]

Haha ridiculous

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm sure everyone had been talking about The Incredibles before in the years build up to the sequel.

 

I think you take the GA for fools, you think they won't remember the best cinemtatic experience of their lives? By the way that's why Avatar made a shit ton of cash, because it was like nothing people had seen before.

Avatar will have hype and you can be the money first Disney will captislise with their marketing.

 

I'm teasing after your ridiculous statement if EG can do 2.7 then anyone can. It's why people give you so much shit. Maybe Avatar does 3.5b but great chance it doesn't. You act like 2.5B is impossible when it's clearly a possibility. Depends on CR, reception, China and other factors.

 

[Pure Spirit]

$2.5B isn't impossible, but it's unlikely.

 

Let's look at the floors.

 

$600M DOM is probably a realistic floor, unless it face-plants like SLOP2 or Alice 2 did. It's the most anticipated movie on Fandango by a large margin. After adjusting for inflation, Avatar is worth $911M in 2021, so we're talking about 35% drop over the previous movie, but this time with the Disney marketing machine behind the movie and huge pent-up anticipation (Fandango has it as the most anticipated "coming soon" movie that's not coming out within a month). 

 

China is a bigger wildcard and relies more on WoM, so let's add $600M for China as the floor. Again, that would be considered a disappointing performance. It's the most anticipated movie on their long-term tracking sites. $200M in 2009 is roughly equivalent to $1.2B in China today (after adjusting for exchange rates) using standard methods (average of their top 10 movies YoY). 50% drop from the first Avatar in China.

 

That leaves $1.3B OS - China. The foreign box office has grown about 40% after adjusting for exchange rates since Avatar 1, so $1.3B would be about a 50% drop.

 

So we get $2.5B for Avatar by assuming 35% less domestic, and a 50% drop OS, after adjusting for exchange rates. Yes, Avatar was that big (the equivalent box office run would be $4B today).

 

So remember, anyone predicting under $4B is predicting Avatar 2 to fall from its predecessor.

 

Now, Avatar was a unique phenomenon, so I do expect it to fall some from its predecessor, which is why my estimate is around $3.5B.

 

Unless James Cameron delivers something truly special... and we're talking about a guy who's basically made his career delivering just that.

Edited June 9, 2019 by Pure Spirit

[YM!]

40 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Unless James Cameron delivers something truly special... and we're talking about a guy who's basically made his career delivering just that.

Yep, that’s why Alita did $1B WW.

[cdsacken]

26 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Yep, that’s why Alita did $1B WW.

Indeed deserved

[Pure Spirit]

28 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Yep, that’s why Alita did $1B WW.

Alita doubled its expectations so are you predicting $5B for Avatar 2? Don’t get too carried away.

[cdsacken]

Doubled expectations? Did people really expect it to lose $100 million?

 

 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Pure Spirit said:

Alita doubled its expectations so are you predicting $5B for Avatar 2? Don’t get too carried away.

Not all expectations...

 

[YM!]

I’m not denying Alita broke out relatively speaking but I do think saying $600M is the floor DOM is kind of silly, especially when so many sequels have crashed hard recently even though to be fair they were one trick ponies and A2 should be better than most of them. I think a respectable floor is $500M DOM/$400M China/$1.2B OS/$2.1B WW.

[NCsoft]

4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Avatar's record will be beaten by a sequel soon.

  

I don't see an original film being the highest grossing film of all time for many decades.

This is how I foresee an original film will beat a sequel for all time record again:

 

Several decades later, Avatar sequels have all came out and had glorious runs,  created all time record another 2 times (Avatar 2 & Avatar 5). At this point, Cameron has retired from making films, inflation and global expansion finally caught on and some random superhero sequel edges out Avatar 5 by an inch, claiming the crown and following that, sequels start to get worldwide all-time records in very close succession, in the same way LOTR3, Transformers 3, HP8, Avengers, JW, TFA, and EG will all be all-champion had Avatar not existed (thankfully this scenario was avoided). These sequels are cat-fighting for  "incremental" records while coming nowhere close to the true worldwide ceiling at that point (which is $7B+), and sequel fatigue was really setting in for record breakers such as Avengers vs X-Men vs Justice League 2. 

 

Out of nowhere, comes an original film, so groundbreaking and unique, that it captures the zeitgeist instantly and connected spiritually with American, European, Latin American, and Asian audiences alike, reminding people of the true phenomenons of the old days, like Titanic and Avatar. This film sets the worldwide records by a large margin (50%), and kick-starts a new era of original franchises, groundbreaking stand alone films, and refreshing adaptations of inspiring novels/series. Cinema is rejuvenated again!

 

Don't wake me up from this daydream please....

 

 

 

Edited June 9, 2019 by NCsoft

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

This is how I foresee an original film will beat a sequel for all time record again:

 

Several decades later, Avatar sequels have all came out and had glorious runs,  created all time record another 2 times (Avatar 2 & Avatar 5). At this point, Cameron has retired from making films, inflation and global expansion finally caught on and some sequel edges out Avatar 5 by an inch, claiming the crown and following that, sequels start to get worldwide all-time records in very close succession, in the same way LOTR3, Transformers 3, HP8, Avengers, JW, TFA, and EG will all be all-champion had Avatar not existed (thankfully this scenario was avoided). These sequels are cat-fighting for  "incremental" records while coming nowhere close to the true worldwide ceiling at that point (which is $7B+), and sequel fatigue was really setting in for record breakers such as Avengers vs X-Men vs Justice League 2. 

 

Out of nowhere, comes an original film, so groundbreaking and unique, that it captures the zeitgeist instantly and connected spiritually with American, European, Latin American, and Asian audiences alike, reminding people of the true phenomenons of the old days, like Titanic and Avatar. This film sets the worldwide records by a large margin (50%), and kick-starts a new era of original franchises, groundbreaking stand alone films, and refreshing adaptations of inspiring novels/series. Cinema is rejuvenated again!

 

Don't wake me up from this daydream please....

 

 

 

The next Jim may already be alive (but not directing). They must come and save us.

[dudalb]

WHy do James Cameron fanboys consider it necessary to tear down every other filmmaker?

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, dudalb said:

WHy do James Cameron fanboys consider it necessary to tear down every other filmmaker?

Whose the next Jim? Do tell.

[NCsoft]

5 minutes ago, dudalb said:

WHy do James Cameron fanboys consider it necessary to tear down every other filmmaker?

I don't think we've done that, I'm sure we all have filmmakers that we like apart from Jim.

 

[TomCruiseTop]

50 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I don't think we've done that, I'm sure we all have filmmakers that we like apart from Jim.

 

Agreed. I admire many working today, and many who have worked before him. It's just Jim's box office dominance that I find so appealing. 

[NCsoft]

11 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Agreed. I admire many working today, and many who have worked before him. It's just Jim's box office dominance that I find so appealing. 

Exactly! What are some of the non-Cameron upcoming films are you looking forward to?

 

For me, Nolan's Tenet, Villeneuve's Dune, Pixar's Onward and Soul, and James Gray's Ad Astra.

None of them is going to be contenders for GOAT box office runs though, hence the additional excitement for Avatar sequels, not that we're incapable of liking other films or filmmakers.

[TMP]

2 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

None of them is going to be contenders for GOAT box office runs though

inb4 WB pits Dune for December and it does a billie

[NCsoft]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

inb4 WB pits Dune for December and it does a billie

and the world embraces the "LOTR" of the 2020s...

 

 

[YM!]

20 minutes ago, TMP said:

inb4 WB pits Dune for December and it does a billie

Dune would be lucky do Alita numbers.

[Pure Spirit]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Dune would be lucky do Alita numbers.

Looking forward to Dune but unfortunately I agree.

 

ESIT: to be fair, I thought the same thing about LotR and was so pleasantly happy to be wrong.

Edited June 9, 2019 by Pure Spirit