Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology

[RRA]

5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Despicable me 3 made over 1 billion with a rumored 80m budget and a low above the line participation deal, not particularly China heavy, must be in that top 5, kind of a contender to the top 3 (jumanji dom is really juicy too).

Deadline is racist against yellow dwarves 

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yes I just remembered it, I had totally forgotten about it. 

 

So there are 6 contenders for the top 5 spots 

 

TLJ

F8

BaTB

DM3

Jumanji

IT

 

I’m pretty sure even the lowest grossing of this bunch (IT) must have made more profit than Get Out at #10 so I wonder how the rankings will go. Perhaps they might not count TLJ/Jumanji since they came out so late?

 

Maybe F8 misses. Participations are probably through the roof for that franchise and the budget was crazy high.

[Deja23]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Despicable me 3 made over 1 billion with a rumored 80m budget and a low above the line participation deal, not particularly China heavy, must be in that top 5.

Yeah, I don’t think F8 makes the list. $1.24b WW, but only $226m DOM and almost $400m from China alone. And it should have pretty high participations based on the cast, plus a $250m budget. 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

I’m pretty sure even the lowest grossing of this bunch (IT) must have made more profit than Get Out at #10 so I wonder how the rankings will go. Perhaps they might not count TLJ/Jumanji since they came out so late?

Star wars was late every year and made the Deadline most profitable tournament cut in the past.

 

I suspect F8 could be the one missing:

Maybe, they are estimating that at this point 40% of the profit are going to Diesel, Johnson and company and didn't like how oversea-china heavy it got.

 

Edited March 23, 2018 by Barnack

[ZeeSoh]

3 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Maybe F8 misses. Participations are probably through the roof for that franchise and the budget was crazy high.

Yeah you are probably right. It has the highest budget of the bunch and as you said participation costs would be the highest of the bunch as well. Plus the fact that it did the lowest of the bunch in DOM markets plus a high portion of gross coming from China means theatrical revenue would be comparatively low. I presume they would have spent a lot on P&A as well. 

 

F7 for instant made a profit of close to 350m despite earning more than 250m more than F8. So yeah F8 likely misses out. 

 

So the top 5 are gonna be (no order)

 

BaTB

TLJ

DM3

Jumanji

IT

[AndyK]

48 minutes ago, RRA said:

Did I read your post right that JL lost money?

 

 

Apparently so.

[IronJimbo]

Don't really care for the business side, how wasteful they were with the budget and how good their deals were are of little importance.

What matters is box office, bums on seats, popularity, Avatar.

[intenso]

2 hours ago, AndyK said:

Deadline are currently running down 2017s most profitable movies.

 

DCEU profitability with WW added in are as follows

 

Man of Steel: +$42.7M

Batman V Superman: +$105.7M

Suicide Squad: +$158.45M

Wonder Woman: +$252.9M

Justice League: -$60M

Total: +499.75M

 

They are only up to #6 for 2017, but Wonder Woman is listed @#6 and is the most profitable of all the 2017 SH movies, there is the possibilty that Logan could be tops, but seems unlikely.

 

#6: WW: +$252.9M

#7: SMH: +$200.1

#8: Thor R: +$174.2

#9: GotG2: +$154.7

#10: Get Out: $124.8

 

http://deadline.com/tag/movie-profits/

How can they say JL lost 60 million the Blu-Ray and DVD isn’t even out yet in many countries. Very weird. By the way Where did you see these DCEU numbers ?

2 hours ago, dudalb said:

here we go again:

 

The issue is not that the DCU is losing money as a whole, but that it is really underperforming compared to what Warners expected.

That is the reason behind all the shakeups at DC Studios, and if it continues to underperform there will be more shakeup in the future.

 

What are you talking about all of the DCEU Movies brought profit except JL Apparantly, so the only one underperformed was JL. As it lost a measly 60 million before homemedia profit and tv rights ect. 

Edited March 23, 2018 by intenso

[Jonwo]

2 hours ago, dudalb said:

here we go again:

 

The issue is not that the DCU is losing money as a whole, but that it is really underperforming compared to what Warners expected.

That is the reason behind all the shakeups at DC Studios, and if it continues to underperform there will be more shakeup in the future.

 

I suspect JL was a write off from the get go, with Wonder Woman being so successful, they could suck it up and just concentrate on the next couple of films since it's essentially new people in charge, even Aquaman which was in production was just Wan and his usual producers

[Barnack]

39 minutes ago, intenso said:

How can they say JL lost 60 million the Blu-Ray and DVD isn’t even out yet in many countries. Very weird. By the way Where did you see these DCEU numbers ?

2 hours ago, dudalb said:

It is just gross estimate (it is not like they will ever have access to those bluray or vod or any sales one day even if they would wait) or know the real movie budget.

 

Home ent sales tend to follow box office performance quite a bit and you can have some good idea, marketing budget and what tv deal look like for a movie with X box office tend to be more well known. When comparing previous and more well breakdown deadline estimate they were not bad all for the more public number like releasing cost, tv deal, rental was not too far the mark.

 

They were really quite off on the budget and even more off on the participation bonus.

Edited March 23, 2018 by Barnack

[MattW]

Logan probably would have made the list were it not for participations as well.

[WeneedtotalkaboutKevin]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

Don't really care for the business side, how wasteful they were with the budget and how good their deals were are of little importance.

What matters is box office, bums on seats, popularity, Avatar.

I am pretty sure the blue-people film has a lot of "popularity" even when the reddit page of Avatar has only 1,270 subscribers LOL. 

 

[RRA]

1 hour ago, intenso said:

How can they say JL lost 60 million the Blu-Ray and DVD isn’t even out yet in many countries. Very weird. By the way Where did you see these DCEU numbers ?

What are you talking about all of the DCEU Movies brought profit except JL Apparantly, so the only one underperformed was JL. As it lost a measly 60 million before homemedia profit and tv rights ect. 

Apparently everything is roses and wine over there. Tell that to Mr. Berg. Tell that to Zack Snyder. 

[ZeeSoh]

2 hours ago, intenso said:

How can they say JL lost 60 million the Blu-Ray and DVD isn’t even out yet in many countries. Very weird. By the way Where did you see these DCEU numbers ?

What are you talking about all of the DCEU Movies brought profit except JL Apparantly, so the only one underperformed was JL. As it lost a measly 60 million before homemedia profit and tv rights ect. 

They use projections for such number based on past statistics as well as box office performance and reception. As Barnack mentioned they are usually quite close most of the time. 

 

And that 60m projected loss for JL is after home media, tv rights and all other revenue and expense source have been taken into account. 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

They use projections for such number based on past statistics as well as box office performance and reception. As Barnack mentioned they are usually quite close most of the time.

Quite close for some of the numbers, overall I would not say that (from the little amount of actual we can compare).

 

For example:

http://deadline.com/2015/03/amazing-spider-man-2-profit-box-office-2014-1201389608/

 

They say Studio net profit 70.38m at the time of the Sony hack the movie was still 49.9m in the red from a studio point of view and was expected for is life to end up around 14.5m in profit for Sony while the 3rd party investor would loose an estimated 5m.

 

That is quite the big difference, even if Deadline underestimate Sony retention rate (they made more from the BO than they think)

 

they got wrong

Budget: 255 (264m in reality)

Releasing cost: 175m (191.79m in reality)

Participation: 10m (44.25m in reality)

 

That a 65m difference......... I would  say their estimate tend to be +/- 100m either way for smaller title, probably +/- 350m either on the bigger Star Wars type.

 

 

22 Jump street

http://deadline.com/2015/03/22-jump-street-profit-box-office-2014-1201391202/

 

Deadline studio net profit estimate: 144.48

Sony accounting: movie was already 18m in the black at hack time, life profits estimated at 45.5m 

 

That a 100m difference !

 

Biggest Deadline "error" is completely ignoring (either not knowing or voluntarily closing their eye, because starting to see project too much into a group make it more boring, both failure and win being much smaller)  on MGM (28%)/MRC (10%)/Lone Star (18%) participation on that project.

 

But even if Sony would have fully financed the project, profit would have been more around 105-115 than 145 according to them.

 

Deadline got wrong

Budget (either didn't check Louisiana public movie info's or overestimate incentive help): 58m, 69.7m in reality

Participation: 10m (had no idea and did put the same filler number than for Amazing Spider Man 2), 30m in reality

Releasing cost: 92.4m was only 80.365m (with MGM financing some of that)

 

Sony estimation for the Home ent was about 15m lower, also around 15m for Intl home Ent.....

 

They are to be taken as just extremely gross estimate, maybe less than the competitor distributor commenting on a movie performance we read in the trades those having both lack of knowledge of all the reality plus motivation to bash the competition product, but still easily hundreds of millions off the marks can happen.

Edited March 23, 2018 by Barnack

[IronJimbo]

6 hours ago, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

I am pretty sure the blue-people film has a lot of "popularity" even when the reddit page of Avatar has only 1,270 subscribers LOL. 

 

Actually it's been proven by various studies that reddit is an anti popularity contest, they're the type of people you don't want behind your film.

[TomCruiseTop]

10 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Still not able to detect jokes?

I wasn't kidding... they're both the best selling items of their respective genres. 

[TomCruiseTop]

7 hours ago, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

I am pretty sure the blue-people film has a lot of "popularity" even when the reddit page of Avatar has only 1,270 subscribers LOL. 

 

Reddit is a small fraction of people (most white, american, males, with access to the internet, and aged between 18-30). That is nothing when compared to what Jim is going after - if we wanted that demographic alone Jim could've just directed a sws movie. 

Edited March 23, 2018 by JamesCameronScholar

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

I wasn't kidding... they're both the best selling items of their respective genres. 

Ah I didn't think of that, you're right Avatar is the bible of cinema.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Reddit is a small fraction of people (most white, american, males, with access to the internet, and aged between 18-30). That is nothing in compared to what Jim is going after - if we wanted that demographic alone Jim could've just directed a sws movie. 

They don't deserve him after what they've done to locust.