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Wrath

BOT User Tracking: 11/6-8 Peanuts, Spectre

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I think Waterbottle said it best when he said "What weekend numbers? I thought we were taking that weekend off." When the actuals come out, I think it will turn out that we actually had a pretty strong predicting weekend, which will be nice, because this weekend should be fun. Also, I missed that Truth went wide this weekend, but in my defense so did most of the viewing audience. Fun thematically-related fact: Jem and the Holograms gained theaters this week.

Back to the fun times again. Will repeated showings of "Its a Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown!" demonstrate how incredibly out of touch with today's sensibilities Peanuts was at its heyday, or did they change tactics from the TV shows and *not* make the movie a celebration of the joys of casual bullying and cruelty? Will Spectre go big or go home, or will the casting of a 50+ year old as the "Bond Girl" telegraph that its shooting for somewhere in the middle. Ok, its Monica Belluci who looks better at 50 than 99% of the human race did at 22, but still. There's just 2 this week, so how hard could it be?

 

Please provide your 10/30 - 11/1 Opening Weekend predicts for:

Peanuts

Spectre

 

Deadline is Wednesday night at 5 PM, EST. Wednesdays have been busy for me lately and I haven't been able to get this done until Thursday mornings. I'm giving it one more week and if I still can't get it done on Wednesday I may move the deadline back to "late Wednesday night/before I get to it Thursday morning" and then just settle for getting it consistently done on Thursdays. I don't want to, because it'll be awkward with movies opening on Wednesdays, so we'll see how this goes.

 

I did succeed in getting it posted Wednesday afternoon, so we'll see how this goes.

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Spectre - 75M

Peanuts - 38M

 

Edit - The instant I made this post, I felt like I'd low-balled Spectre (I put $75M, in case I change it later), so I wouldn't be surprised if I come back and bump it up later this morning.

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Its compelling to have record setting badness. I mean, when there's a bad car accident, you have to look, don't you? Sure, its terrible and you feel badly for the people involved, but its also interesting figuring out what went wrong and being glad it didn't happen to you or on your watch.

 

But this weekend is more fun. We think this weekend is going to be pretty big, and we're pretty confident we know exactly how big as Spectre ended up with the second lowest ratio of any movie we've predicted (after Hotel Transylvania 2, edging out Paper Towns. Both were varying degrees of terrible for us) so I really hope we're right. We're slightly on the low end of the prediction scale for both movies among websites though everyone is quite tightly grouped (except for Deadline's moderate lowballing of Spectre).

 

Also, sorry this is late. After a moment of success last week, I've again failed to get this done by Wednesday afternoon (or even Thursday, for that matter). So, starting next week I'm going to move the predict deadline back to Thursday morning. When Thursday? Whenever I get to it, which should be mid-morning, US East Coast time. You're welcome to try to game things and turn in as late a prediction as possible, but if you miss the arbitrary and poorly defined deadline I won't include it.

 

As usual, I went through the various predicts (21 for both) and here's what we ended up with:

 

Peanuts

Mean: 44.2M

Median: 45M

StnDev: 6.46M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 14.62%

High: 55.5M

Low: 34M

 

BO.com 49M

ComingSoon.com 42.5M

Deadline 40M

ScreenRant.com 47M 

Variety 45M

 

 

Spectre

Mean: 80.5M

Median: 80M

StnDev: 9.17M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 11.39%

High: 100.5M

Low 65M

 

BO.com 85M

ComingSoon.com 85M

Deadline 72.5M

ScreenRant.com 90M 

Variety 80M

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Fun weekend and something happened that I figured would happen eventually, but I thought it would be through blind luck with some little dinky flick. Don't get me wrong, it was still tremendously lucky, but I didn't think it would even happen with a movie that made real money.

 

Peanuts

Prediction: 44.2M +/- 6.46M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 44.2M (off by 0.0M, so 0.0 stndev)

Our predict was off by $0. Ok, now obviously that's not precisely true. Peanuts didn't make *exactly* $44.2M, it made something like $44,21X,XXX, so we actually missed by like ~15k, which would give us a stndev of like 0.0023. So, not exactly zero, but as close as we are likely to get. That's pretty darn good. Audrey and WrathofHan tied with the closest predicts at 45M.

 

Spectre

Prediction: 80.5M +/- 9.17M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 70.2M (off by 10.3M, so 1.12 stndev)

Not a bad predict as we tied Variety and were only beaten by Deadline's lowball predict that still wasn't low enough. We were very confident in our predict and for once it didn't come back to bite us in the ass as we didn't really miss by that much. Best predict was TalismanRing at 68M.

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