STAR WARS PREDICTION CONTEST. Winners Announced

[grey ghost]

9 minutes ago, Darth Water Bottle said:

$333 million OW? For the love of god, people, movies still struggle to even open to $200 million. AoU couldn't do it and it had everything except a stupid fight going for it. Only 2 movies in HISTORY have opened to over $200 million. Adjusted, the Phantom Menace only opened to $106 million. Now with 3D and IMAX, The Force Awakens can make it to $200 million. But come on, $300 million? $333 million?

 

You guys haven't just lost it.  When it opens to $210 million, you can't call for a WWW thread. The only thing that went wrong is your head going insane and throwing out unrealistic OW numbers.

 

It could get closer to 300 than to 200.

 

Then who's crazy? 

[grey ghost]

C'mon Hollywood.

 

Stop jerking each other off and start tweeting.

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

It could get closer to 300 than to 200.

 

Then who's crazy? 

 

It won't.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, Darth Water Bottle said:

$333 million OW? For the love of god, people, movies still struggle to even open to $200 million. AoU couldn't do it and it had everything except a stupid fight going for it. Only 2 movies in HISTORY have opened to over $200 million. Adjusted, the Phantom Menace only opened to $106 million. Now with 3D and IMAX, The Force Awakens can make it to $200 million. But come on, $300 million? $333 million?

 

You guys haven't just lost it.  When it opens to $210 million, you can't call for a WWW thread. The only thing that went wrong is your head going insane and throwing out unrealistic OW numbers.

Well obviously nothing went wrong if it were to open to that. But I refuse to believe 300 isn't happening. The fact that you would even compare this to AoU shows how much you're not comprehending the hype for this thing. It is unheard of. TFA's hype raced past TPM's pod racer in the Falcon months ago, that's how big it is. There is tangible evidence too backing that up, if not with the pre-sales then with everywhere you look. The generational thing is just on another level, that wasn't even present with the PT, because the over 40 set didn't care that much about those.  Now you have kids, teens, 20 somethings, 30 somethings, 40 and over, and all the way up to the baby boomers that all have an interest in this thing. People who never even saw an SW flick (yes they exist) are going to see this because so many people are going in huge groups this weekend. The bottom line is no one want to be left out at this point. It is an absolute phenomenon that I didn't even know the medium could create before this.

 

Maybe it does do 200m for OW and no more. But I simply don't buy that anymore, and I will just have to be an idiot if my 300+ expectations end up way off. I have never felt more confident though then now. Nothing has died down about this film, it just keeps exploding just when you think the hype may have finally plateaued. It is total insanity and insanity deserves insane predictions. 

[grey ghost]

6 minutes ago, Darth Water Bottle said:

 

It won't.

 

All it needs is 11 million per day more than JW.

 

Easily doable for the most anticipated movie of this generation.

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Well obviously nothing went wrong if it were to open to that. But I refuse to believe 300 isn't happening. The fact that you would even compare this to AoU shows how much you're not comprehending the hype for this thing. It is unheard of. TFA's hype raced past TPM's pod racer in the Falcon months ago, that's how big it is. There is tangible evidence too backing that up, if not with the pre-sales then with everywhere you look. The generational thing is just on another level, that wasn't even present with the PT, because the over 40 set didn't care that much about those.  Now you have kids, teens, 20 somethings, 30 somethings, 40 and over, and all the way up to the baby boomers that all have an interest in this thing. People who never even saw an SW flick (yes they exist) are going to see this because so many people are going in huge groups this weekend. The bottom line is no one want to be left out at this point. It is an absolute phenomenon that I didn't even know the medium could create before this.

 

Maybe it does do 200m for OW and no more. But I simply don't buy that anymore, and I will just have to be an idiot if my 300+ expectations end up way off. I have never felt more confident though then now. Nothing has died down about this film, it just keeps exploding just when you think the hype may have finally plateaued. It is total insanity and insanity deserves insane predictions. 

 

Once again, TPM had similar hype levels and yet it's OW was realistic. It didn't even beat the OW record of The Lost World: Jurassic Park.  Yes, the new fanbase is why it will open way higher. 3D and IMAX will also ensure it opens higher than TPM. It's not that I don't comprehend the hype. I get the hype. I've been saying it was going to be the OW record since before and after JW came out. And in December, getting to $210 million is an AMAZING feat.

 

But come on, you are acting like getting $210 million isn't a significant accomplishment. It would not only be the opening record but it would be the first move to hit the teens in the $200-million range for OW.

[Claire of Themyscira]

I forgot to do this.

 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Darth Water Bottle said:

 

Once again, TPM had similar hype levels and yet it's OW was realistic. It didn't even beat the OW record of The Lost World: Jurassic Park.  Yes, the new fanbase is why it will open way higher. 3D and IMAX will also ensure it opens higher than TPM. It's not that I don't comprehend the hype. I get the hype. I've been saying it was going to be the OW record since before and after JW came out. And in December, getting to $210 million is an AMAZING feat.

 

But come on, you are acting like getting $210 million isn't a significant accomplishment. It would not only be the opening record but it would be the first move to hit the teens in the $200-million range for OW.

TPM would've done a solid 90m+ if released on a Friday, or around $150m adjusted. And keep in mind that is way before OWs became such frontloaded monsters that we now know and no 3D or premium format added in. In fact, both TPM and ROTS would have likely shattered the OW records if released on Friday by a whopping 25% higher gross than the previous record. Applying that same rule to TFA gives us an OW around $265m. And you still think 300 is completely out of the realm of possibility? I sure don't, and I think the late night numbers on Thursday are going to make it clear just why I'm predicting so insanely high. I understand how amazing the OW record would be in December in itself, but I don't think it is going to stop there. TPM's hype was never this generational or world consuming. Everything and everyone seems to want to tie into SW right now somehow. Big companies that shouldn't care one bit about the film industry are getting in on it with SW nods and references. Between the massive success of the OT, then the massive success of the PT, and then SW never really dying out with kids since, the franchise is simply on a new level now then when TPM opened. 

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

TPM would've done a solid 90m+ if released on a Friday, or around $150m adjusted. And keep in mind that is way before OWs became such frontloaded monsters that we now know and no 3D or premium format added in. In fact, both TPM and ROTS would have likely shattered the OW records if released on Friday by a whopping 25% higher gross than the previous record. Applying that same rule to TFA gives us an OW around $265m. And you still think 300 is completely out of the realm of possibility? I sure don't, and I think the late night numbers on Thursday are going to make it clear just why I'm predicting so insanely high. I understand how amazing the OW record would be in December in itself, but I don't think it is going to stop there. TPM's hype was never this generational or world consuming. Everything and everyone seems to want to tie into SW right now somehow. Big companies that shouldn't care one bit about the film industry are getting in on it with SW nods and references. Between the massive success of the OT, then the massive success of the PT, and then SW never really dying out with kids since, the franchise is simply on a new level now then when TPM opened. 

 

"would have likely" is an "if" not a "fact" so yes I still think it's outside the realm of possibility. I'd love to be wrong (and heck have a GIF ready just in case I am!) but at the moment, I just can't join the crazy train.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Darth Water Bottle said:

 

"would have likely" is an "if" not a "fact" so yes I still think it's outside the realm of possibility. I'd love to be wrong (and heck have a GIF ready just in case I am!) but at the moment, I just can't join the crazy train.

No worries. Judging by the predictions in this thread there are only like 4 of us on that crazy train. 

[Water Bottle]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

No worries. Judging by the predictions in this thread there are only like 4 of us on that crazy train. 

 

5 if you include CJohn.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Darth Water Bottle said:

 

5 if you include CJohn.

To be exact, looks like me, Chewy, Druv, ThatOneGuy, Boxx, and yes of course CJohn. The Ridiculous 6? 

[Empire]

20 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

To be exact, looks like me, Chewy, Druv, ThatOneGuy, Boxx, and yes of course CJohn. The Ridiculous 6? 

CJohn is the Sandler of this group obviously. 

[Chewy]

54 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

To be exact, looks like me, Chewy, Druv, ThatOneGuy, Boxx, and yes of course CJohn. The Ridiculous 6? 

 

To be extra exact I was totally trolling, trying to get the top predix 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Chewy said:

 

To be extra exact I was totally trolling, trying to get the top predix 

Yeah I kinda figured that tbh when I saw you of all people had the highest prediction.  Don't worry, when it opens 300+, we'll just go with it being totally serious all along. 

[POTUS 2020]

6 hours ago, Darth Water Bottle said:

 

It won't.

with previews potentially being 30m over JW that takes it to 238m if the weekend runs the same

With stories of 5am shows near sold out I cant see how it doesn't out pace fri-sun

closer to 300m over 200m is looking real good

[POTUS 2020]

8 hours ago, Darth Water Bottle said:

 

Once again, TPM had similar hype levels and yet it's OW was realistic. It didn't even beat the OW record of The Lost World: Jurassic Park.  Yes, the new fanbase is why it will open way higher. 3D and IMAX will also ensure it opens higher than TPM. It's not that I don't comprehend the hype. I get the hype. I've been saying it was going to be the OW record since before and after JW came out. And in December, getting to $210 million is an AMAZING feat.

 

But come on, you are acting like getting $210 million isn't a significant accomplishment. It would not only be the opening record but it would be the first move to hit the teens in the $200-million range for OW.

Aside from the wed open. I recall lucas had negotiated a larger BO cut with theaters and wanted larger screens only with superior sound. that why its theater count was 300 less than JP2 and I assume the screen count was a far lesser %.  Prices and show times are going to each double here. 4 x 68m= 272m 

TPM lost JP in the first round

SW7 is going to open a can a whoop ass this time!

Edited December 15, 2015 by No Prisoners

[POTUS 2020]

edit

Edited December 15, 2015 by No Prisoners

[Darth Homer]

8 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

TPM would've done a solid 90m+ if released on a Friday, or around $150m adjusted. And keep in mind that is way before OWs became such frontloaded monsters that we now know and no 3D or premium format added in. In fact, both TPM and ROTS would have likely shattered the OW records if released on Friday by a whopping 25% higher gross than the previous record. Applying that same rule to TFA gives us an OW around $265m. And you still think 300 is completely out of the realm of possibility? I sure don't, and I think the late night numbers on Thursday are going to make it clear just why I'm predicting so insanely high. I understand how amazing the OW record would be in December in itself, but I don't think it is going to stop there. TPM's hype was never this generational or world consuming. Everything and everyone seems to want to tie into SW right now somehow. Big companies that shouldn't care one bit about the film industry are getting in on it with SW nods and references. Between the massive success of the OT, then the massive success of the PT, and then SW never really dying out with kids since, the franchise is simply on a new level now then when TPM opened. 

Were you around for TPM's original release? The hype far outmatched TFA's, even at this point. TFA is the most hyped movie in the last 15 years, true. But TPM was treated as the second coming. That's why the disappointment was so crushing for many fans. If TFA disappoints, people will be like, "oh well, there's another SW movie coming out every year from now. Maybe I'll like one of them." 

[POTUS 2020]

33 minutes ago, Darth Homer said:

Were you around for TPM's original release? The hype far outmatched TFA's, even at this point. TFA is the most hyped movie in the last 15 years, true. But TPM was treated as the second coming. That's why the disappointment was so crushing for many fans. If TFA disappoints, people will be like, "oh well, there's another SW movie coming out every year from now. Maybe I'll like one of them." 

Maybe the hype was bigger with fan boys, but not with the mainstream. TFA has all demos talking about it.  The mainstream is several times larger than the fanbase.

Ive been polling friends and relatives above 45 years old. None of them fanboys or star wars enthusiasts, they did not see the prequels in the theater, but most saw ANH. More than half are going to see TFA, plus their kids that weren't around for TPM.

Edited December 15, 2015 by No Prisoners