JeepCSC Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 OW- $245.6 million Domestic- $789.3 million Overseas- $1.4 billion WW- $2.2 billion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmscholar Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 (edited) Well here it goes: OW: 288 (100+ OD) DOM: 1008 (3.5x mutiplier) WW: 2.8 Billion Edited December 14, 2015 by filmscholar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 1 hour ago, Darth Homer said: OW: 177 DOM: 650 WW: 1.65b A lot of people are going to freak out when this doesn't break OW records, but they're forgetting two things: 1. Families will be busy with Christmas shopping so the OW will be heavily fan driven. But the second weekend drop will be small to make up for it 2. Many casual fans will skip the OW because of sell out reports. The same thing happened with TPM, which had a lower than expected OW but then showed great legs less than Jurassic World. Lolz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 20 hours ago, Juby said: I repeat. Only 2 movies in the history crossed one billion in domestic box office (adjusted) in their first theatrical releases! Titanic (1997) - $1,072.7 mln, and E.T. (1982) - $1,010.6 mln (according to my calculation). TFA won't be THAT big!! I think Avatar adjusted ($811,1 mln) is a huge challenge. First Star Wars original run ($220 mln before July 1978 re-release) adjusted is 'only' about $820 mln (biggest in the history of the series). I'm afraid that even with 3D and IMAX TFA won't beat that. considering that it only need to sell 10% more tickets than TPM to get to 1B, I say its quite possible. TPM had mixed reviews and WOM. Plus you have another generation to sell to while the first generation is still alive and kicking 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cory Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Final revision: OW: $240m DOM: $860m WW: 2.1bn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 2 hours ago, Cochofles said: But you know that once they see reality setting in, they will immediately start tweaking their tune, justifying the numbers, rationalizing the scenarios, and I am sure that some of them might even say that their outlandish predictions were just a matter of them joking around and trying to have a little fun with the board... Reality is that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will be gigantic (duh!), but Jurassic World has spoiled everyone into thinking that every beloved blockbuster sequel that comes down the pike from now on will become not just huge, but challenging-Avatar-and-Titanic-huge. In any case, I am so looking forward to the meltdowns. 2 hours ago, James said: Your desperation will begin with the midnight number. When SW fails to touch DH2's record I will smile. Then, the Friday number will come and again it will be under DH2. Right then I will start preparing the crow. And in the end, the OW record will not fall and it will be in that moment, when all hope had faded, when the crow will be hot and ready, that I will serve it and laugh like a mad man doing it... Naysayers - "Harry Potter and Jurassic Park will keep their records. We are not afraid." SW Loonies - "You will be...You will be." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 On 12/22/2014 8:20:07, baumer said: I think I have tempered my expectations for this film, until now. The film has a very good chance of exceeding 500 mill in North America. If it is really good, it could go much higher. The international market, as many have pointed out, has never put SW on the giants list. It has done well, but far from great, I think that can change this time. For one, many markets have expanded and two, the three originals did well 35 years ago. With the returning cast, I think this will do very well in places that Menace did well. China of course is a wild card here but with places like Australia and the UK looking to do about 250 mill combined, the prospects look enticing. I am still going to stick with 525-550 in North America but I think it can do about 1.3 bill internationally. The Bomber up to 2,65B now On 12/22/2014 8:28:29, Ethan Hunt said: OUT IN 1.36B 2B now On 12/22/2014 10:33:12, druv10 said: I'm IN. Off course, this is predicated on SW7 being great and having great WOM. Disney marketing behind it and Christmas/Winter holidays to boost the legs, this club has a chance. 551M/1.25B/1.801B 1105/2200 On 12/22/2014 12:14:23, James said: Out. 1.3B smth WW. Probably under 1.35B. About the same with what you think it will do OS ( he is at the least....consistent) 1.45B On 12/22/2014 12:47:54, The Good Olive said: 130/505/815/1320M 1,95B On 4/17/2015 6:00:37, peludo said: I trust in SW DOM, but not so much OS. And F7 success should not make us to forget that exchange rates are still shit. About 1.3-1.4 billion (600 DOM + 700s OS). Out Said this, I wish I am wrong... wishes come true 2,25B On 4/17/2015 9:07:59, grey ghost said: Bold club. But I'm going with 1.6 billion. So out, unfortunately. In fortunately 2.3B On 4/17/2015 9:19:59, Heretic said: No way(it'll do 1.8b ww). It would require probably $1.2bn OS at least for that to happen, which isn't going to happen. 550/900/1.45bn yes way, as you now state 2.31B On 4/17/2015 9:42:20, baumer said: Yep, it's different times now. If F7 is going to do 1.5 billion, there is no doubt in my mind SW can do close to 2B. On 4/18/2015 3:43:36, Noctis said: Can't wait for you to eat your words. (now predicting 2.2B, time to eat your own!) A look back from the 1.8b club 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I have increased my prediction over $800m in a 8 months period... not bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Thanks for editing in my update, Prisoners I think you mis-ranked my prediction though, with 178.5 OW I should be at #118 instead of where I am right now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 (edited) On 12/11/2015, 11:18:01, B J said: BJs Prediction:Star Wars Episode VII - The Force Awakens Previews: 54.65m -Opening Day: 114.99mOpening Wknd: 250.05m - Fri: 114.99m / Sat: 70.95m -38% / Sun: 64.11m -9%4-Day: 288.60m - Mon: 38.55m -39%5-Day: 325.00m - Tue: 36.40m -5%6-Day: 360.65m - Wed: 35.65m -2%Opening Wk: 384.50m - Thur: 23.85m -33%2nd Wknd: 145.00m -42% - Fri: 40.25m +68% / Sat: 54.75m +35% / Sun: 50.00m -8%11-Day: 567.00m - Mon: 37.50m -25%12-Day: 602.25m - Tue: 35.25m -6%13-Day: 635.70m - Wed: 33.45m -5%2nd Wk: 662.65m - Thur: 26.95m -19%3rd Wknd: 100.50m -30% - Fri: 37.55m +39% / Sat: 37.95m +1% / Sun: 25.00m -34%18-Day: 771.90m - Mon: 8.75m -63%19-Day: 781.95m - Tue: 10.05m +15%20-Day: 789.45m - Wed: 7.50m -20%3rd Wk: 796.15m - Thur: 6.70m -11%4th Wknd: 52.25m -48% - Fri: 14.35m +115% / Sat: 22.30m +55% / Sun: 15.50m -30%25-Day: 852.90m - Mon: 4.50m -71%26-Day: 858.55m - Tue: 5.65m +25%27-Day: 862.75m - Wed: 4.20m -29%4th Wk: 866.50m - Thur: 3.75m -5%5th Wknd: 37.40m -28% - Fri: 8.75m +130% / Sat: 15.35m +75% / Sun: 13.30m -13%4-Day-Wknd: 47.40m -10% - Mon: 10.00m -25%33-Day: 917.75m - Tue: 3.85m -61%34-Day: 920.40m - Wed: 2.65m -30%5th Wk: 923.05m - Thur: 2.65m NC6th Wknd: 26.15m -30% - Fri: 6.50m +145% / Sat: 12.05m +85% / Sun: 7.60m -37%Wk-1: 384.50m - Wknd: 250.05m | Total: 384.50mWk-2: 278.15m - Wknd: 145.00m | Total: 662.65mWk-3: 133.50m - Wknd: 100.50m | Total: 796.15mWk-4: 70.25m - Wknd: 52.25m | Total: 866.50mWk-5: 56.55m - Wknd: 37.40m - 4-Day-Wknd: 47.40m | Total: 923.05mWk-6: 34.80m - Wknd: 26.15m | Total: 957.85mWk-7: 26.75m - Wknd: 20.40m | Total: 984.60mWk-8: 18.40m - Wknd: 13.25m | Total: 1,003.00mWk-9: 20.65m - Wknd: 13.25m - 4-Day-Wknd: 17.25m | Total: 1,023.65mWk-10: 12.05m - Wknd: 8.95m | Total: 1,035.70mWk-11: 9.75m - Wknd: 7.15m | Total: 1,045.45mWk-12: 7.00m - Wknd: 5.15m | Total: 1,052.45mWk-13: 5.90m - Wknd: 3.85m | Total: 1,058.35mWk-14: 3.25m - Wknd: 2.10m | Total: 1,061.60mWk-15: 1.30m - Wknd: .95m | Total: 1,062.90mWk-16: 1.05m - Wknd: .80m | Total: 1,063.95mWk-17: 1.20m - Wknd: .90m | Total: 1,065.15mWk-18: 1.00m - Wknd: .70m | Total: 1,066.15mWk-19: .75m - Wknd: .50m | Total: 1,066.90mWk-20: 2.65m - Wknd: 1.75m | Total: 1,069.55mWk-21: .70m - Wknd: .55m | Total: 1,070.25mWk-22: .55m - Wknd: .40m | Total: 1,070.80mWk-23: .50m - Wknd: .30m - 4-Day-Wknd: .40m | Total: 1,071.30mWk-24: .25m - Wknd: .15m | Total: 1,071.55mWk-25: .15m - Wknd: .10m | Total: 1,071.70mMoney Made After Wk-25: ~.5mEstimated Wks in theaters: 30Consecutive Days Over 1m: 68Days to 50m: 1-Days - 114.99mDays to 100m: 1-Days - 114.99mDays to 150m: 2-Days - 185.94mDays to 200m: 3-Days - 250.05mDays to 250m: 3-Days - 250.05mDays to 300m: 5-Days - 325.00mDays to 350m: 6-Days - 360.65mDays to 400m: 8-Days - 424.75mDays to 450m: 9-Days - 479.50mDays to 500m: 10-Days - 529.50mDays to 550m: 11-Days - 567.00mDays to 600m: 12-Days - 602.25mDays to 650m: 14-Days - 662.65mDays to 700m: 15-Days - 700.20mDays to 750m: 17-Days - 763.15mDays to 800m: 22-Days - 810.50mDays to 850m: 25-Days - 852.80mDays to 900m: 31-Days - 903.80mDays to 950m: 39-Days - 951.45mDays to 1,000b: 54-Days - 1,000.5bDays to 1,050b: 80-Days - 1,050.6bDomestic Total: 1,072bInternational Total: 1,628bWorld Wide Total: 2,700bMultiplier: 4.29 not sure why my prediction has not been added yet, but if it is a formatting issue Opening Wknd: 250m Domestic Total: 1,072b World Wide Total: 2,700b Edited December 14, 2015 by B J 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 8 minutes ago, B J said: not sure why my prediction has not been added yet, but if it is a formatting issue Opening Wknd: 250m Domestic Total: 1,072b World Wide Total: 2,700b I guess I thought it was a daily run prediction and overlooked the totals as an entry you in. nice looking run. could happen, you need 95%+ on RT to keep those post OW numbers pumped up Lo siento mucho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 2 hours ago, No Prisoners said: considering that it only need to sell 10% more tickets than TPM to get to 1B, I say its quite possible. TPM had mixed reviews and WOM. Plus you have another generation to sell to while the first generation is still alive and kicking As I said, the very first Star Wars original run adjusted is only about $820 mln, after that there was 5 more Star Wars movies and none of them, even with the re-releases, got close to that. TFA might go little big higher than TPM* adjusted thanks to 3D and IMAXes, but will not exceed SW'77 original run. *TPM had pretty good reviews and WOM (great legs). It was the most anticipated movie of all time, remember that! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyLL Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 5 minutes ago, Juby said: *TPM had pretty good reviews and WOM (great legs). It was the 2nd most anticipated movie of all time, remember that! Fixed it for you. You keep trying to fit TFA into a box and compare it to single movies. ANH (and sequels ) had its huge fanbase. TPM (and sequels ) had its huge fanbase. TFA awakens has both. Take ANH adjusted and TPM adjusted and that's the reasonable target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cochofles Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Darth AndyLL said: ANH (and sequels ) had its huge fanbase. TPM (and sequels ) had its huge fanbase TFA has both... Take ANH adjusted and TPM adjusted and that's the reasonable target. Right...because we know that every single person who watched the OT and every single person who watched the PT are completely separate. No overlapping at all. No siree. That's why we know that whenever Infinity War is done, it will have grossed 4 billion dollars domestically...because the fandom of every single MARVEL movie is separate, which means that all those fans will converge at the cinemas for PART 1 of IW And of course, when IWII opens, it will gross 4 billion plus all the new fans Part I gets. Yep, that's exactly how these things work. Edited December 14, 2015 by Cochofles 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 11 minutes ago, Juby said: As I said, the very first Star Wars original run adjusted is only about $820 mln, after that there was 5 more Star Wars movies and none of them, even with the re-releases, got close to that. TFA might go little big higher than TPM* adjusted thanks to 3D and IMAXes, but will not exceed SW'77 original run. *TPM had pretty good reviews and WOM (great legs). It was the most anticipated movie of all time, remember that! I remember then as you hear now people complaining about that freaking lizard and as usual poor dialogue. RT has it at 56%, That would be called mixed are you using BOM's ave 2015 adjustment price 8.02. I have no idea where they get that average, are tickets $5 in the Midwest? Children tickets arent that low in the northeast. Anyway. 90m tickets should do it at an $11+ average. just 6m more tix than PM. there are 40% more people in Dom btw since SW Star wars original run includes the following summer IMO/ I dont think it closed nationwide. Just marketed and superexpanded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Community Manager Water Bottle Posted December 14, 2015 Community Manager Share Posted December 14, 2015 22 minutes ago, Cochofles said: Right...because we know that every single person who watched the OT and every single person who watched the PT are completely separate. No overlapping at all. No siree. That's why we know that whenever Infinity War is done, it will have grossed 4 billion dollars domestically...because the fandom of every single MARVEL movie is separate, which means that all those fans will converge at the cinemas for PART 1 of IW And of course, when IWII opens, it will gross 4 billion plus all the new fans Part I gets. Yep, that's exactly how these things work. I mean sure but the prequels DID grow the fanbase. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyLL Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 27 minutes ago, Cochofles said: That's why we know that whenever Infinity War is done, it will have grossed 4 billion dollars domestically...because the fandom of every single MARVEL movie is separate, which means that all those fans will converge at the cinemas for PART 1 of IW And of course, when IWII opens, it will gross 4 billion plus all the new fans Part I gets. Yep, that's exactly how these things work. That would be silly. I was trying to be reasonable. Although tongue in check the Star Wars franchise is unique. The OT brought in the original fans. The PT brought in a whole new generation of fans. All the animated TV, theme park, toys brought in another generation of fans. People underestimate this. My son ( now 13 ) rode Star Tours at Disneyland, watched the Clone Wars on Disney, and had 100s of dollars of SW legos before he even saw a movie. I can't think of another franchise that has followed a similar path. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Homer Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 (edited) On 12/14/2015 at 11:11 AM, John Marston said: less than Jurassic World. Lolz I was wrong. Edited February 15, 2016 by Darth Homer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I've got the top predictions what do I win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 1 minute ago, Chewy said: I've got the top predictions what do I win 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
