STAR WARS PREDICTION CONTEST. Winners Announced

[druv10]

2 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

im conflicted. I think the weekend could be batshit crazy high approaching 300m with this hype but that it wont beat Avatar by not reaching all the demos it did with  the new 3d gimmick,

2.5 multi like HP8 but at xmas time?

There is no chance it has only a 2.5 multi. Christmas on Friday will seriously boost 2nd weekend and same for 3rd weekend. No way in hell it only gets 2.5 multi, at worst I could see is 3 but it really has no comp and keeps IMAX for a while so multi should approach 3.5. 

[Blankments]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

 

The drop is only gonna be "super small" if you understand the box-office well. Otherwise, it's gonna look like one of the biggest drops for second weekend during the Christmas holidays. If it drops "only" 40%, that'll be amazing.

I'm gonna predict around 40-42%. I've met more people anecdotely who are seeing it that weekend compared to opening weekend.

[James]

This could do a "mere" 175 OW and it would still be monstrous.  The December record is frikkin 84 million.

If that would happen, which is very close to what I'm predicting, I'd have such a field day. OMG, it would be glorious.

[The Futurist]

FRONTLOADED

[Juby]

6 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Jaws did

 

Nope! Jaws were re-relesed in 1979 ($26,860,259 according to IMDb). In 1975 Spielberg's hit made $191,741,308 (according to IMDb), so: $260 mln (all) minus $191,74 mln (1975), minus $26,86 mln (1979) = $41,4 mln in 1976! $191,74 mln + $41,4 mln = about $233,14 mln in film's first theatrical run. It's $942,3 mln adjusted ($1,031.5 mln all - still less than Titanic did in 1997-1998)!

 

I've done my research, and as I said, only two films would cross $1 billion domestically with today's ticket prices in their first theatrical run (Titanic and E.T.)!

 

Edited December 14, 2015 by Juby

[KenterKane]

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS.

 

OW: 202.4 (Biggest Opening in December, Third All-Time)

2nd  129.5-434.6 (Best second weekend ever)

3rd     84.4-616.3 (Best Third weekend ever)

 

DOMESTIC: 835.0

WORLDWIDE: 2,310.0

[ShouldIBeHere]

Ah what the fuck...

 

 

OW: 221

Dom: 845

WW: 2,268.0

Edited December 14, 2015 by ShouldIBeHere

[baumer]

These are dark times for James.

[HeyItsMoses]

1.8b domestic.

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, HeyItsMoses said:

1.8b domestic.

is that an entry? what about the other 2?

 

  

[BoxOfficeZ]

Changing my numbers a bit:

 

OW: 221.7m

Domestic: 702m

WW: 2.04B

Edited December 14, 2015 by BoxOfficeZ

[Darth Homer]

OW: 177

DOM: 650

WW: 1.65b

 

A lot of people are going to freak out when this doesn't break OW records, but they're forgetting two things:

 

1. Families will be busy with Christmas shopping so the OW will be heavily fan driven. But the second weekend drop will be small to make up for it

2. Many casual fans will skip the OW because of sell out reports. The same thing happened with TPM, which had a lower than expected OW but then showed great legs

Edited December 14, 2015 by Darth Homer

[James]

These are dark times for James.

Your desperation will begin with the midnight number. When SW fails to touch DH2's record I will smile. Then, the Friday number will come and again it will be under DH2. Right then I will start preparing the crow. And in the end, the OW record will not fall and it will be in that moment, when all hope had faded, when the crow will be hot and ready, that I will serve it and laugh like a mad man doing it... [emoji48]

[Cochofles]

12 minutes ago, James said:

Your desperation will begin with the midnight number. When SW fails to touch DH2's record I will smile. Then, the Friday number will come and again it will be under DH2. Right then I will start preparing the crow. And in the end, the OW record will not fall and it will be in that moment, when all hope had faded, when the crow will be hot and ready, that I will serve it and laugh like a mad man doing it...

 But you know that once they see reality setting in, they will immediately start tweaking their tune, justifying the numbers, rationalizing the scenarios, and I am sure that some of them might even say that their outlandish predictions were just a matter of them joking around and trying to have a little fun with the board... 

Reality is that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will be gigantic (duh!), but Jurassic World has spoiled everyone into thinking that every beloved blockbuster sequel that comes down the pike from now on will become not just huge, but challenging-Avatar-and-Titanic-huge.

In any case, I am so looking forward to the meltdowns. 

Edited December 14, 2015 by Cochofles

[POTUS 2020]

				SW7 Predictions
		OW			DOM			WW
1	Chewy	325.0		Chewy	1275.0		Chewy	3625.0
2	ThatOneGuy	310.0		Druv10	1105.0		iJackSparrow	3300.0
3	Druv10	306.0		AndyLL	1100.0		Klingo	3200.0
4	MovieMan89	305.0		yads	1055.0		Boxx93	3106.0
5	Boxx93	304.0		MovieMan89	1050.0		yads	3100.0
6	Klingo	290.0		Tstechnij	1050.0		DAR	3100.0
7	No Prisoners	284.0		Empire of Spies	1032.0		Hangman	3066.8
8	BastienGiat	279.0		parkerthegreat	1000.1		parkerthegreat	3005.1
9	blackspider	273.0		Boxx93	982.0		ThatOneGuy	3000.0
10	yads	271.0		Klingo	980.0		Ray G	2930.0
11	Yandereprime	270.0		DAR	975.0		Yandereprime	2900.0
12	WrathofHan	270.0		ThatOneGuy	965.0		shaldun	2900.0
13	iJackSparrow	270.0		cmbbox2390	957.0		Tstechnij	2800.0
14	mahnamahna	270.0		Yandereprime	950.0		The Panda	2800.0
15	MonstersandRoy	267.5		WrathofHan	950.0		AndyLL	2800.0
16	Jessie	265.9		iJackSparrow	950.0		Movieboner	2800.0
17	Baumer	265.0		mahnamahna	950.0		MovieMan89	2790.0
18	Tstechnij	260.0		arpiaaaa	940.0		Kalo	2777.0
19	The Dark Alfred	258.0		Baumer	925.0		Empire of Spies	2765.0
20	XeOF4	256.0		blackspider	921.0		mahnamahna	2700.0
21	DAR	255.0		Dan9	920.7		Baumer	2650.0
22	Grey Ghost	254.3		Grey Ghost	915.5		DAJK	2650.0
23	TriggerMike	254.0		Blankments	910.0		arpiaaaa	2650.0
24	Exxdee	251.2		Jim Shorts	905.8		WrathofHan	2600.0
25	Caesar	250.0		Jessie	900.0		cmbbox2390	2600.0
26	parkerthegreat	250.1		BKB is Capt America	900.0		Jajang	2587.0
27	Films	249.7		Hangman	896.7		The Dark Alfred	2542.0
28	DAJK	248.2		PanaMovie	892.1		Jim Shorts	2513.0
29	Jack	247.9		Films	886.4		BKB is Capt America	2500.0
30	Empire of Spies	248.0		Marek the Jedi	884.5		231sEverywhere	2500.0
31	TalismanRing	247.5		Jajang	883.9		xeno000	2500.0
32	Noctis	246.0		Dekunova	870.0		BastienGiat	2485.0
33	Marek the Jedi	245.7		Ray G	861.0		wildphantom	2407.0
34	The Panda	245.0		ChiSoxRox	855.0		Jessie	2400.0
35	Ajipon	244.0		Jack	852.1		Blankments	2394.8
36	wildphantom	243.5		BastienGiat	850.0		ssjrem	2370.0
37	BourneFan#1	242.7		Caesar	850.0		Dan9	2330.0
38	Jim Shorts	241.3		peludo	850.0		Grey Ghost	2320.0
39	arpiaaaa	240.0		No Prisoners	847.0		Heretic	2310.0
40	peludo	240.0		ShouldIbeHere	845.0		Kenterkane	2310.0
41	Kalo	239.0		Ajipon	844.0		Films	2308.7
42	No Prisoners	238.5		TalismanRing	836.0		TriggerMike	2300.0
43	33Legend	238.0		Kenterkane	835.0		Jack	2295.0
44	Asyulus	238.0		MonstersandRoy	825.0		ShouldIbeHere	2268.0
45	Jajang	237.7		shaldun	825.0		FTF	2255.0
46	Ray G	237.4		XeOF4	822.2		33Legend	2251.0
47	Vgpop	237.0		TriggerMike	820.0		peludo	2250.0
48	AndyLL	237.0		ssjrem	820.0		bapi	2250.0
49	Heretic	237.0		DAJK	818.5		Marek the Jedi	2204.0
50	Wrath	235.4		wildphantom	817.9		Druv10	2200.0
51	ssjrem	235.0		33Legend	811.0		Caesar	2200.0
52	wormhole	235.0		Jandrew	810.0		Noctis	2200.0
53	shaldun	235.0		pepsa	810.0		BourneFan#1	2200.0
54	Lumos	233.7		TheGoodOlive	810.0		wormhole	2200.0
55	Blankments	233.6		Cory	810.0		Daniel Dylan Davis	2200.0
56	cmbbox2390	232.0		The Dark Alfred	807.0		ash	2200.0
57	Goffe	232.0		Juby	807.0		Ajipon	2144.0
58	Dan9	231.5		BourneFan#1	805.2		Exxdee	2111.0
59	Hangman	231.1		Heretic	805.0		MonstersandRoy	2110.0
60	BKB is Capt America	230.0		Exxdee	802.5		Bonenash	2105.0
61	Jandrew	230.0		Noctis	800.0		Vgpop	2103.0
62	Daniel Dylan Davis	230.0		Movieboner	800.0		aliadiera29	2100.0
63	Movieboner	230.0		Bonenash	800.0		Cory	2100.0
64	aliadiera29	229.0		ash	793.0		ChiSoxRox	2100.0
65	Telemachos	228.4		theStun	785.0		CoolioD1	2073.0
66	FTF	227.5		bapi	785.0		pepsa	2054.0
67	pepsa	227.4		Eleven	784.5		Jandrew	2050.0
68	Junkshop36	227.0		Junkshop36	783.0		Omni	2040.0
69	TheGoodOlive	232.0		CoolioD1	781.0		misafeco	2038.0
70	lilmac	225.1		Omni	780.0		Juby	2037.0
71	Girafficpark	225.0		Water Bottle	780.0		TalismanRing	2032.0
72	Cory	225.0		Kalo	777.0		XeOF4	2023.0
73	231sEverywhere	225.0		Telemachos	775.4		Ethan Hunt	2000.0
74	Omni	225.0		The Panda	770.0		Samarus	1984.2
75	Juby	224.2		Walt Disney	770.0		theStun	1960.0
76	Eleven	223.9		No Prisoners	766.0		PanaMovie	1959.1
77	SchumacherFTW	223.6		Lumos	761.1		TheGoodOlive	1950.0
78	ChiSoxRox	223.0		231sEverywhere	761.0		Eleven	1946.5
79	ash	222.0		wormhole	760.0		Omni	1930.0
80	xeno000	222.0		FTF	755.5		No Prisoners	1924.0
81	Dekunova	221.7		xeno000	755.0		lilmac	1916.0
82	Charism	221.4		Samarus	754.0		blackspider	1900.0
83	PanaMovie	226.4		Elessar	748.0		Girafficpark	1900.0
84	ShouldIbeHere	221.0		Jayhawk	745.0		Michael Gary Scott	1900.0
85	Omni	220.0		Ethan Hunt	744.0		Water Bottle	1900.0
86	theStun	219.5		Girafficpark	735.0		moviesRus	1900.0
87	Sam	219.0		Cochofles	730.0		Walt Disney	1900.0
88	Ethan Hunt	218.0		Wrath	728.1		BoxOfficeZ	1890.0
89	Jayhawk	218.0		lilmac	727.0		Asyulus	1877.3
90	BoxOfficeZ	217.3		Asyulus	726.6		Telemachos	1875.4
91	bapi	217.0		Goffe	715.0		Junkshop36	1868.0
92	CoolioD1	215.8		langer	715.0		Indernus	1854.0
93	KayJaySay	215.5		75live	713.2		DanienRoc	1848.0
94	Michael Gary Scott	215.0		Daniel Dylan Davis	710.0		Goffe	1828.0
95	Indernus	214.0		Omni	710.0		Jayhawk	1820.0
96	Elessar	212.0		Michael Gary Scott	705.0		Elessar	1816.0
97	Samarus	212.0		Vgpop	703.0		75live	1814.0
98	Cmasterclay	212.0		aliadiera29	700.0		No Prisoners	1812.0
99	misafeco	210.5		boomboom234	700.0		Cmasterclay	1800.0
100	Water Bottle	210.0		Gokai Red	700.0		boomboom234	1800.0
101	Alli	210.0		misafeco	695.8		Charism	1770.0
102	boomboom234	210.0		SchumacherFTW	695.4		KayJaySay	1770.0
103	Lordmandeep	208.0		DanienRoc	692.0		SchumacherFTW	1764.0
104	Kenterkane	202.4		Sam	691.0		seduh	1740.0
105	The Stingray	202.0		seduh	690.0		ImoJammer	1735.0
106	The Futurist	195.0		moviesRus	690.0		Sam	1710.0
107	seduh	195.0		Cmasterclay	686.0		langer	1705.0
108	ImoJammer	195.0		BoxOfficeZ	680.0		Lordmandeep	1700.0
109	Bonenash	195.0		Lordmandeep	678.0		Wrath	1650.0
110	moviesRus	195.0		Indernus	674.0		Murgatroyd	1650.0
111	Dexter of Suburbia	190.0		Charism	671.2		Lumos	1643.0
112	langer	190.0		KayJaySay	671.0		Harpospoke	1600.0
113	Harpospoke	189.9		ImoJammer	660.0		Cheesypoofs	1600.0
114	Cheesypoofs	185.0		Murgatroyd	640.0		Cochofles	1600.0
115	DanienRoc	183.0		The Stingray	633.0		CaptainJackSparrow	1600.0
116	James	180.0		Cheesypoofs	615.0		Gokai Red	1550.0
117	Gokai Red	179.9		Ncsoft	615.0		Ncsoft	1550.0
118	75live	178.3		The Futurist	600.0		The Stingray	1533.0
119	Amadeus	170.0		Harpospoke	600.0		Dekunova	1500.0
120	Walt Disney	170.0		Amadeus	600.0		James	1450.0
121	Ncsoft	178.5		CaptainJackSparrow	600.0		Alli	1400.0
122	Murgatroyd	160.0		James	595.0		Amadeus	1400.0
123	Cochofles	155.0		Dexter of Suburbia	589.0		Fake	1400.0
124	CaptainJackSparrow	150.0		Alli	580.0		The Futurist	1350.0
125	Fake	140.0		Fake	500.0		Dexter of Suburbia	1200.0
126	mrqe93	127.0		mrqe93	370.0		mrqe93	1100.0
	Average	228.9		Average	797.4		Average	2155.8
	Ave Top/Bot 10 Removed	229.1		Ave Top/Bot 10 Removed	794.3		Ave Top/Bot 10 Removed	2135.0
	Median	229.5		Median	796.5		Median	2100.0

5.5 hours until contest closes.

New entries and changes allowed until then

BoxOfficeZ and Darth Homer, you will be updated in next post

 

James you are out of the bottom 10 for OW. Are you sure you don't want to go lower?

Be an optimist. Say, yes it can! be lower.

 

I just noticed Im in there twice. I will remove my lower prediction

 

Edited December 14, 2015 by No Prisoners

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

2 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

 But you know that once they see reality setting in, they will immediately start tweaking their tune, justifying the numbers, rationalizing the scenarios, and I am sure that some of them might even say that their outlandish predictions were just a matter of them joking around and trying to have a little fun with the board...

Reality is that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will be gigantic (duh!), but Jurassic World has spoiled everyone into thinking that every beloved blockbuster sequel that comes down th pike from now on will become not just huge, but challenging-Avatar-and-Titanic-huge.

In any case, I am so looking forward to the meltdowns.

12 minutes ago, James said:

Your desperation will begin with the midnight number. When SW fails to touch DH2's record I will smile. Then, the Friday number will come and again it will be under DH2. Right then I will start preparing the crow. And in the end, the OW record will not fall and it will be in that moment, when all hope had faded, when the crow will be hot and ready, that I will serve it and laugh like a mad man doing it...

Always two there are, no more, no less. A master and an apprentice.

[misafeco]

I want to change my WW prediction to 2088M (+50M from Hungary  )

[Juby]

I change my predictions:

 

OW: $219,8 mln

DOM: 776 mln (OW x3,53)

+OS: $1230 mln

=WW: $2.006 bln

 

Edited December 14, 2015 by Juby

[POTUS 2020]

a lot of talk on the OW multi. there is much conviction its a 3.5~ due to holiday

I think it would be 3.5 but Thursday is going to be gigantic and the weekend even more inflated with hype

Subtracting 60m from 284m then 3.5 x 224 then add the 60m back in. close to 850 for a 2.98 multi

4th Prize Added

Copper Account for Closest OW Multi

as many decimal places out to prevent tie

 

[DMan7]

32 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

I have never seen someone who appears so threatened by this movie, it's as if you're afraid TFA is going to annihilate BvsS and make it look like Uwe Boll Directed it... Just accept the fact that SW7 isn't going to Bomb the way you're making it sound and is going to make enough $$$$ to Cure Cancer...

 

It's going to do that on it's own, TFA isn't needed for that to happen.