POTUS 2020 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 im conflicted. I think the weekend could be batshit crazy high approaching 300m with this hype but that it wont beat Avatar by not reaching all the demos it did with the new 3d gimmick, 2.5 multi like HP8 but at xmas time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 7 hours ago, Juby said: I repeat. Only 2 movies in the history crossed one billion in domestic box office (adjusted) in their first theatrical releases! Titanic (1997) - $1,072.7 mln, and E.T. (1982) - $1,010.6 mln (according to my calculation). TFA won't be THAT big!! I think Avatar adjusted ($811,1 mln) is a huge challenge. First Star Wars original run ($220 mln before July 1978 re-release) adjusted is 'only' about $820 mln (biggest in the history of the series). I'm afraid that even with 3D and IMAX TFA won't beat that. Jaws did I thought star wars ran str8 thru to next summer If it closed for a month or two then reopened to create summer hype I still put that down as one release. Its not like disneys tactic of every 7 years for a new crop of kids and new parents to go and see a toon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 33 minutes ago, No Prisoners said: im conflicted. I think the weekend could be batshit crazy high approaching 300m with this hype but that it wont beat Avatar by not reaching all the demos it did with the new 3d gimmick, 2.5 multi like HP8 but at xmas time? No way it hits 300 OW and misses Avatar DOM. I would buy a 150m OW before I'd buy that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 40 minutes ago, No Prisoners said: im conflicted. I think the weekend could be batshit crazy high approaching 300m with this hype but that it wont beat Avatar by not reaching all the demos it did with the new 3d gimmick, 2.5 multi like HP8 but at xmas time? I think that's basically impossible. Even with super-frontloading, no way it falls that far beneath a 3x. ROTK is probably our closest comp, and scale it up all you want, but it easily passed a 3x multi, and that's with a ton of demand the first few days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talkie Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 36 minutes ago, No Prisoners said: im conflicted. I think the weekend could be batshit crazy high approaching 300m with this hype but that it wont beat Avatar by not reaching all the demos it did with the new 3d gimmick, 2.5 multi like HP8 but at xmas time? I honestly don't think it has the faintest chance of hitting $300M. Has the total domestic take for any single 3-day weekend ever hit or exceeded $300M? The highest I've seen on BOM is in the upper $200M range, even on weekends with individual films that took in over $200M (TA & JW). The 4-day Memorial Day weekend in 2013 saw $313M in ticket sales, but TFA won't have that Monday boost helping it. Basically, I'll believe $300M if/when it happens. And maybe not even then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 OW: 273m DOM Total: 921m International: 1.9B Worldwide Total: 2.821B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 (edited) 1 hour ago, No Prisoners said: im conflicted. I think the weekend could be batshit crazy high approaching 300m with this hype but that it wont beat Avatar by not reaching all the demos it did with the new 3d gimmick, 2.5 multi like HP8 but at xmas time? It won't hit 300m. Around 230m would already be amazing for it as it is. Edited December 14, 2015 by Daniel Dylan Davis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 1 minute ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said: It won't hit 300m. Around 230m would already be amazing for it as it is. Well, yea, of course it would be. That would take the opening weekend record by about 20 million. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 (edited) 1 minute ago, baumer said: Well, yea, of course it would be. That would take the opening weekend record by about 20 million. Hey I didn't say it wouldn't be amazing for nothing. Edited December 14, 2015 by Daniel Dylan Davis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The Force Awakens cannot do less than a Bryce Dallas Howard movie, right ? Right ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 22 minutes ago, Talkie said: I honestly don't think it has the faintest chance of hitting $300M. Has the total domestic take for any single 3-day weekend ever hit or exceeded $300M? The highest I've seen on BOM is in the upper $200M range, even on weekends with individual films that took in over $200M (TA & JW). The 4-day Memorial Day weekend in 2013 saw $313M in ticket sales, but TFA won't have that Monday boost helping it. Basically, I'll believe $300M if/when it happens. And maybe not even then. there hasnt been a 3 day over 300 collectively, but you can argue this is 4 days with thursday possibly exceeding 50m. theaters will run extra shows. , 24hrs in some cases. to boost Friday further. im not saying itll clear it but it could get into the upper 200s Now that I saw that The Phantom Mess sold more tickets that Avatar then maybe it beats Avatar adjusted 811m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 5 minutes ago, The Futurist said: The Force Awakens cannot do less than a Bryce Dallas Howard movie, right ? Right ? BDH and JLaw combined? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cochofles Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 35 minutes ago, Talkie said: I honestly don't think it has the faintest chance of hitting $300M. Has the total domestic take for any single 3-day weekend ever hit or exceeded $300M? The highest I've seen on BOM is in the upper $200M range, even on weekends with individual films that took in over $200M (TA & JW). The 4-day Memorial Day weekend in 2013 saw $313M in ticket sales, but TFA won't have that Monday boost helping it. Basically, I'll believe $300M if/when it happens. And maybe not even then. This lunacy that has taken over is due to, 1-the property being actually gigantic, no doubt, 2- nostalgia-colored glasses, 3-Jurassic World's opening. “Hey, if a once-popular franchise that was virtually dead can break an opening weekend record, certainly Star Wars, which was infinitely more popular than JP to begin with, and never really died (in spite of the prequels), will surely destroy the OW, in spite of all the factors that make it very difficult to happen...”. So there, all the upcoming heartbreak, meltdowns, and «Star Flops: It Grossed Less Than Avatar” madness is Chris Pratt’s, Dallas Bryce Howard's and Colin Trevorrow’s fault. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 2 minutes ago, Cochofles said: This lunacy that has taken over is due to, 1-the property being actually gigantic, no doubt, 2- nostalgia-colored glasses, 3-Jurassic World's opening. “Hey, if a once-popular franchise that was virtually dead can break an opening weekend record, certainly Star Wars, which was infinitely more popular than JP to begin with, and never really died (in spite of the prequels), will surely destroy the OW, in spite of all the factors that make it very difficult to happen...”. So there, all the upcoming heartbreak, meltdowns, and «Star Flops: It Grossed Less Than Avatar” madness is Chris Pratt’s, Dallas Bryce Howard's and Colin Trevorrow’s fault. The sellouts and pre-sale numbers speak for themselves. There have been legitimate signs that 300 could happen when you compare it to any other record breaker ever, and if you haven't seen those signs you're not paying attention. Granted, I will admit the 250 range is more likely but 300 is no longer just lunacy speaking. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Honestly any record breaking is still hella impressive considering Christmas is next week and the drop is gonna be super small 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 This could do a "mere" 175 OW and it would still be monstrous. The December record is frikkin 84 million. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lumos Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 OW: 233.7M DOM: 761.1M WW: 1.643B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 My GM at the movie theater I work for told me he's expecting it to make 280m OW. We had to have an all-staff meeting a couple days ago for how to prepare for it. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 23 minutes ago, Blankments said: Honestly any record breaking is still hella impressive considering Christmas is next week and the drop is gonna be super small The drop is only gonna be "super small" if you understand the box-office well. Otherwise, it's gonna look like one of the biggest drops for second weekend during the Christmas holidays. If it drops "only" 40%, that'll be amazing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 22 minutes ago, baumer said: This could do a "mere" 175 OW and it would still be monstrous. The December record is frikkin 84 million. march was a 70m OW month then alice and HG1 came along as march game changers, who needs to wait til May? dec movies have mostly been 3 hour movies with less shows, opened a weekend earlier during finals and a fan base that could wait to see it over the holidays JW had just 18m on Thursday. It made 190 the rest of the weekend without all this hype If SW7 makes 30m more on Thursday and has more sellouts over the weekend then it should best JW by at least 50m I assune. Plus a lot more repeat viewings within the weekend. 275+ is starting to sound rational if the intel on the sellouts is correct fuck it, I hate being low. In golf, never up never in! Change 283m OW 953.5 Dom 2090 WW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
