Darth Homer Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 (edited) 3 hours ago, No Prisoners said: Maybe the hype was bigger with fan boys, but not with the mainstream. TFA has all demos talking about it. The mainstream is several times larger than the fanbase. Ive been polling friends and relatives above 45 years old. None of them fanboys or star wars enthusiasts, they did not see the prequels in the theater, but most saw ANH. More than half are going to see TFA, plus their kids that weren't around for TPM. TPM had just as much mainstream hype. I know because I watched all the TV reports and read all the newspaper and magazine articles in the months leading up to its release. There just wasn't Facebook or Twitter around to amplify it like there is now. You even had rival studios admitting that their big summer blockbusters came a distant second to TPM. That doesn't happen unless the hype is reaching all demos. https://youtu.be/9IxJw7ldv3g Edited December 15, 2015 by Darth Homer 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VGPOP Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 So the movie has surpassed a historic $100 million advance ticket sales. This weekend will be fun in this forum. I really don't think this will disappoint. Even though I predicted $104 million day. I really think this is now low. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talkie Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 19 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: No worries. Judging by the predictions in this thread there are only like 4 of us on that crazy train. Come on. You may be the conductor, but about 90% of this forum is riding that crazy train with you. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Nah, those saying 200 aren't being crazy at all, merely logical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 12 hours ago, No Prisoners said: Maybe the hype was bigger with fan boys, but not with the mainstream. TFA has all demos talking about it. The mainstream is several times larger than the fanbase. Ive been polling friends and relatives above 45 years old. None of them fanboys or star wars enthusiasts, they did not see the prequels in the theater, but most saw ANH. More than half are going to see TFA, plus their kids that weren't around for TPM. Exactly! TPM hype was a fanboy-gasm that may never be matched, but TFA hype is everywhere and with everyone. That is why TFA's hype is bigger overall, even if not necessarily on the crazed level individually of some of the OT fanboys in '99. And yes I was around, only 9 mind you, but I have pretty good memories from 8 on. I simply don't remember the everyday person on the whole being as universally enamored by TPM's arrival as what has happened with TFA. I remember lots of my friends didn't even care, and I know lots of older people didn't care either. It was the gen that grew up with the OT that was so pumped. TFA is everyone though. That's the defining difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murgatroyd Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Everyone I know is aware of it (as in, "oh, is that this week?"). Many of them are planning to see it eventually. Very few are planning on it for this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 25 minutes ago, Murgatroyd said: Everyone I know is aware of it (as in, "oh, is that this week?"). Many of them are planning to see it eventually. Very few are planning on it for this weekend. Well I suppose given the time of year there's still the chance we could all be way off on OW and it really will be another December OW. If that happens though then I have to believe insane legs are coming. There is just no way it doesn't make obscene amounts of money in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talkie Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: Well I suppose given the time of year there's still the chance we could all be way off on OW and it really will be another December OW. If that happens though then I have to believe insane legs are coming. There is just no way it doesn't make obscene amounts of money in the long run. The fact that next weekend is the last massive shopping spree before Christmas, millions of people will be crowding malls to buy gifts and football season (college and pro) is in high gear, there is plenty to keep people out of theaters. Hysteria is enough to counteract all those other forces. Probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 (edited) over 3 billion WW smashed with ease should end up around 3.2 to 3.3. OW: 310M DOM 1.1bn OS 2.2bn only a star wars sequel can possibly touch this record again. Edited December 16, 2015 by Halba 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angst essen Seele auf Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 (edited) Since the movie is good I expect a similar run as for TPM (even though TFA wil be much more frontloaded and has 3D): so: 750M "adjusted" + 150M 3D + 75M "frontloaded" - 150M "digital age" OW: 251M DOM 825M OS 1.53bn will start awesome but the legs will just be decent Edited December 16, 2015 by Angst essen Seele auf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murgatroyd Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 And now, a bit of perspective. What follows is a scatterplot of the predictions in this thread. Each dot's horizontal position is the predicted OW, vertical position is the DOM. Red lines (approximately) indicate the current records. Y'all are insane. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 On 13.12.2015, 20:45:15, Juby said: I repeat. Only 2 movies in the history crossed one billion in domestic box office (adjusted) in their first theatrical releases! Titanic (1997) - $1,072.7 mln, and E.T. (1982) - $1,010.6 mln (according to my calculation). TFA won't be THAT big!! I think Avatar adjusted ($811,1 mln) is a huge challenge. First Star Wars original run ($220 mln before July 1978 re-release) adjusted is 'only' about $820 mln (biggest in the history of the series). I'm afraid that even with 3D and IMAX TFA won't beat that. I was wrong. Star Wars (1977) original run wasn't precisely $220 mln. According to IMDb the movie had $234,629,663 on July 23rd 1978. 21-23 July weekend (1st re-release opening weekend) was $10,166,336, so SW original run (till July 20th 1978) was $224,463,327. About $200-201 mln were from 1977, the rest from January 1st - July 20th 1978. Average ticket price in 1997 was $2.23, in 1978 - $2.34. It means that original Star Wars theatrical run adjusted is between $835-840 mln, and TFA cannot exceed this numbers, no chance! STAR WARS THEATRICAL RUNS (forget about shitty mojo numbers) 1977 - $224,463,327 ($839.46 mln adjusted) 1978 (1st re-release) - $33,908,317 ($120.82 mln adjusted) 1979 (2nd re-release) - $10,345,657 ($34.38 mln adjusted) 1981 (3rd re-release) - $38,546,556 ($115.64 adjusted) 1982 (4th re-release) - $15,476,285 ($43.9 mln adjusted) 1997 (Special Edition) - $138,257,865 ($251.22 mln adjusted) all = $460,998,007 ($1,405.42 mln adjusted - 2nd of all time!) boxoffice.com weekend forecast - $229 mln OW! http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-12-weekend-forecast-star-wars-the-force-awakens-alvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-sisters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belakor Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 The movie is going to kill Avatar, DOM and OS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 1 hour ago, Juby said: I was wrong. Star Wars (1977) original run wasn't precisely $220 mln. According to IMDb the movie had $234,629,663 on July 23rd 1978. 21-23 July weekend (1st re-release opening weekend) was $10,166,336, so SW original run (till July 20th 1978) was $224,463,327. About $200-201 mln were from 1977, the rest from January 1st - July 20th 1978. Average ticket price in 1997 was $2.23, in 1978 - $2.34. It means that original Star Wars theatrical run adjusted is between $835-840 mln, and TFA cannot exceed this numbers, no chance! STAR WARS THEATRICAL RUNS (forget about shitty mojo numbers) 1977 - $224,463,327 ($839.46 mln adjusted) 1978 (1st re-release) - $33,908,317 ($120.82 mln adjusted) 1979 (2nd re-release) - $10,345,657 ($34.38 mln adjusted) 1981 (3rd re-release) - $38,546,556 ($115.64 adjusted) 1982 (4th re-release) - $15,476,285 ($43.9 mln adjusted) 1997 (Special Edition) - $138,257,865 ($251.22 mln adjusted) all = $460,998,007 ($1,405.42 mln adjusted - 2nd of all time!) boxoffice.com weekend forecast - $229 mln OW! http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-12-weekend-forecast-star-wars-the-force-awakens-alvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-sisters your still not accounting for 3d and Imax boost. Average ticket will be over $10. youre stating that there were 100m tickets sold before the re-expansion(wasn't a rerelease) The population is 45% bigger You now have 3 generations of fans SW7 may only have to sell 90-95m tickets to reach 1B. Just 5m-10m more than TPM, again, more people, another generation, more fans Boxoffice.com- In serving as a sequel to the original Star Wars trilogy (as opposed to a prequel), which features Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill and Carrie Fisher, excitement for The Force Awakens feels even higher than it was before the release of The Phantom Menace. http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-12-weekend-forecast-star-wars-the-force-awakens-alvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-sisters 95% on RT Tremendous chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 On 2015年12月11日 9:36:21, baumer said: 1 hour ago, Belakor said: The movie is going to kill Avatar, DOM and OS. I would bet everything I own, every dollar I could get from anyone, that SW will make a billion dollars WW. How much do you think SW7 has to make in boxoffice, to KILL a 2.7BN grosser? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 On 12/16/2015 3:14:28, Talkie said: The fact that next weekend is the last massive shopping spree before Christmas, millions of people will be crowding malls to buy gifts and football season (college and pro) is in high gear, there is plenty to keep people out of theaters. Hysteria is enough to counteract all those other forces. Probably. nothing draws a crowd like a crowd. When there shopping they'll see/feel the buzz and want to join in. Whats 2.5 hours? See the movie then buy the gifts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 21 hours ago, No Prisoners said: SW7 Predictions OW DOM WW 1 MovieMan89 333.0 Chewy 1275.0 HetItsMoses 3650.0 2 Chewy 325.0 HetItsMoses 1217.0 Chewy 3625.0 3 ThatOneGuy 310.0 MovieMan89 1111.0 iJackSparrow 3300.0 4 Druv10 306.0 Druv10 1105.0 Klingo 3200.0 5 Boxx93 304.0 AndyLL 1100.0 Boxx93 3106.0 6 Klingo 290.0 BJ 1072.0 yads 3100.0 7 film scholar 288.0 yads 1055.0 DAR 3100.0 8 No Prisoners 284.0 Tstechnij 1050.0 Hangman 3066.8 9 BastienGiat 279.0 Empire of Spies 1032.0 parkerthegreat 3005.1 10 blackspider 273.0 film scholar 1008.0 ThatOneGuy 3000.0 11 HetItsMoses 274.0 No Prisoners 1005.0 Ray G 2930.0 12 yads 271.0 parkerthegreat 1000.1 MovieMan89 2925.0 13 Yandereprime 270.0 Boxx93 982.0 Yandereprime 2900.0 14 WrathofHan 270.0 Klingo 980.0 shaldun 2900.0 15 iJackSparrow 270.0 Marek the Jedi 976.6 film scholar 2800.0 16 mahnamahna 270.0 DAR 975.0 Tstechnij 2800.0 17 MonstersandRoy 267.5 ThatOneGuy 965.0 The Panda 2800.0 18 Jessie 265.9 cmbbox2390 957.0 AndyLL 2800.0 19 Baumer 265.0 Yandereprime 950.0 Movieboner 2800.0 20 Tstechnij 260.0 WrathofHan 950.0 Kalo 2777.0 21 The Dark Alfred 258.0 iJackSparrow 950.0 Empire of Spies 2765.0 22 Marek the Jedi 257.0 mahnamahna 950.0 mahnamahna 2700.0 23 XeOF4 256.0 arpiaaaa 940.0 BJ 2700.0 24 DAR 255.0 Baumer 925.0 Baumer 2650.0 25 Grey Ghost 254.3 blackspider 921.0 DAJK 2650.0 26 TriggerMike 254.0 Dan9 920.7 arpiaaaa 2650.0 27 Exxdee 251.2 Grey Ghost 915.5 WrathofHan 2600.0 28 John Marston 250.0 Blankments 910.0 cmbbox2390 2600.0 29 Caesar 250.0 Jim Shorts 905.8 Jajang 2587.0 30 parkerthegreat 250.1 Jessie 900.0 The Dark Alfred 2542.0 31 BJ 250.0 BKB is Capt America 900.0 JohnnY 2530.0 32 Films 249.7 Hangman 896.7 Jim Shorts 2513.0 33 DAJK 248.2 PanaMovie 892.1 BKB is Capt America 2500.0 34 Jack 247.9 Films 886.4 231sEverywhere 2500.0 35 Empire of Spies 248.0 Jajang 883.9 xeno000 2500.0 36 TalismanRing 247.5 Dekunova 870.0 BastienGiat 2485.0 37 wileECoyote 246.0 Ray G 861.0 wildphantom 2407.0 38 Noctis 246.0 John Marston 860.0 Jessie 2400.0 39 JeepCSC 245.6 Cory 860.0 Blankments 2394.8 40 The Panda 245.0 ChiSoxRox 855.0 ssjrem 2370.0 41 Ajipon 244.0 Jack 852.1 Marek the Jedi 2356.0 42 wildphantom 243.5 BastienGiat 850.0 Dan9 2330.0 43 BourneFan#1 242.7 Caesar 850.0 Grey Ghost 2320.0 44 Jim Shorts 241.3 peludo 850.0 Heretic 2310.0 45 Cory 240.0 ShouldIbeHere 845.0 Kenterkane 2310.0 46 arpiaaaa 240.0 Ajipon 844.0 Films 2308.7 47 peludo 240.0 TalismanRing 836.0 TriggerMike 2300.0 48 Kalo 239.0 Kenterkane 835.0 Jack 2295.0 49 33Legend 238.0 MonstersandRoy 825.0 spaghetti 2270.0 50 Asyulus 238.0 shaldun 825.0 ShouldIbeHere 2268.0 51 Jajang 237.7 XeOF4 822.2 FTF 2255.0 52 Ray G 237.4 TriggerMike 820.0 33Legend 2251.0 53 Vgpop 237.0 ssjrem 820.0 peludo 2250.0 54 AndyLL 237.0 DAJK 818.5 bapi 2250.0 55 Heretic 237.0 wildphantom 817.9 Druv10 2200.0 56 Wrath 235.4 wileECoyote 812.0 Caesar 2200.0 57 ssjrem 235.0 33Legend 811.0 Noctis 2200.0 58 wormhole 235.0 Jandrew 810.0 JeepCSC 2200.0 59 shaldun 235.0 pepsa 810.0 BourneFan#1 2200.0 60 JohnnY 234.0 TheGoodOlive 810.0 wormhole 2200.0 61 Lumos 233.7 The Dark Alfred 807.0 Daniel Dylan Davis 2200.0 62 Blankments 233.6 BourneFan#1 805.2 ash 2200.0 63 cmbbox2390 232.0 Heretic 805.0 No Prisoners 2170.0 64 Goffe 232.0 Exxdee 802.5 Ajipon 2144.0 65 Dan9 231.5 Noctis 800.0 Exxdee 2111.0 66 Hangman 231.1 Movieboner 800.0 MonstersandRoy 2110.0 67 BKB is Capt America 230.0 Bonenash 800.0 Bonenash 2105.0 68 Jandrew 230.0 ash 793.0 Vgpop 2103.0 69 spaghetti 230.0 JeepCSC 789.3 Cory 2100.0 70 Daniel Dylan Davis 230.0 theStun 785.0 aliadiera29 2100.0 71 Movieboner 230.0 bapi 785.0 ChiSoxRox 2100.0 72 aliadiera29 229.0 Eleven 784.5 wileECoyote 2092.0 73 Telemachos 228.4 Junkshop36 783.0 misafeco 2088.0 74 GiantCalBears 227.7 CoolioD1 781.0 CoolioD1 2073.0 75 FTF 227.5 JohnnY 780.0 John Marston 2060.0 76 pepsa 227.4 Omni 780.0 pepsa 2054.0 77 Junkshop36 227.0 Water Bottle 780.0 Jandrew 2050.0 78 TheGoodOlive 232.0 Kalo 777.0 Omni 2040.0 79 lilmac 225.1 Juby 776.0 BoxOfficeZ 2040.0 80 Girafficpark 225.0 Telemachos 775.4 TalismanRing 2032.0 81 231sEverywhere 225.0 The Panda 770.0 XeOF4 2023.0 82 Spizzer 225.0 spaghetti 770.0 Juby 2006.0 83 Omni 225.0 Walt Disney 770.0 Ethan Hunt 2000.0 84 Eleven 223.9 Spizzer 765.0 Samarus 1984.2 85 SchumacherFTW 223.6 Lumos 761.1 theStun 1960.0 86 ChiSoxRox 223.0 231sEverywhere 761.0 PanaMovie 1959.1 87 ash 222.0 wormhole 760.0 TheGoodOlive 1950.0 88 xeno000 222.0 FTF 755.5 Eleven 1946.5 89 BoxOfficeZ 221.7 xeno000 755.0 GiantCalBears 1923.0 90 Dekunova 221.7 Samarus 754.0 lilmac 1916.0 91 Charism 221.4 Elessar 748.0 blackspider 1900.0 92 PanaMovie 226.4 Jayhawk 745.0 Girafficpark 1900.0 93 ShouldIbeHere 221.0 Ethan Hunt 744.0 Michael Gary Scott 1900.0 94 Juby 219.8 Girafficpark 735.0 Water Bottle 1900.0 95 theStun 219.5 Cochofles 730.0 moviesRus 1900.0 96 Sam 219.0 Wrath 728.1 Walt Disney 1900.0 97 Ethan Hunt 218.0 lilmac 727.0 Asyulus 1877.3 98 Jayhawk 218.0 Asyulus 726.6 Telemachos 1875.4 99 bapi 217.0 GiantCalBears 724.3 Junkshop36 1868.0 100 CoolioD1 215.8 Goffe 715.0 DamienRoc 1862.0 101 KayJaySay 215.5 langer 715.0 Indernus 1854.0 102 Michael Gary Scott 215.0 DamienRoc 714.0 Goffe 1828.0 103 Indernus 214.0 75live 713.2 Jayhawk 1820.0 104 Elessar 212.0 Daniel Dylan Davis 710.0 Elessar 1816.0 105 Samarus 212.0 Michael Gary Scott 705.0 Spizzer 1815.0 106 Cmasterclay 212.0 Vgpop 703.0 75live 1814.0 107 misafeco 210.5 BoxOfficeZ 702.0 Cmasterclay 1800.0 108 Water Bottle 210.0 aliadiera29 700.0 boomboom234 1800.0 109 Alli 210.0 boomboom234 700.0 Charism 1770.0 110 boomboom234 210.0 Gokai Red 700.0 KayJaySay 1770.0 111 Lordmandeep 208.0 misafeco 695.8 SchumacherFTW 1764.0 112 DamienRoc 203.0 SchumacherFTW 695.4 seduh 1740.0 113 Kenterkane 202.4 Sam 691.0 ImoJammer 1735.0 114 The Stingray 202.0 seduh 690.0 Sam 1710.0 115 The Futurist 195.0 moviesRus 690.0 langer 1705.0 116 seduh 195.0 Cmasterclay 686.0 Lordmandeep 1700.0 117 ImoJammer 195.0 Lordmandeep 678.0 Wrath 1650.0 118 Bonenash 195.0 Indernus 674.0 Daerth Homer 1650.0 119 moviesRus 195.0 Charism 671.2 Murgatroyd 1650.0 120 Dexter of Suburbia 190.0 KayJaySay 671.0 Lumos 1643.0 121 langer 190.0 ImoJammer 660.0 Harpospoke 1600.0 122 Harpospoke 189.9 Daerth Homer 650.0 Cheesypoofs 1600.0 123 Cheesypoofs 185.0 Murgatroyd 640.0 Cochofles 1600.0 124 James 180.0 The Stingray 633.0 CaptainJackSparrow 1600.0 125 Gokai Red 179.9 Cheesypoofs 615.0 Gokai Red 1550.0 126 Ncsoft 178.5 Ncsoft 615.0 Ncsoft 1550.0 127 75live 178.3 The Futurist 600.0 The Stingray 1533.0 128 Daerth Homer 177.0 Harpospoke 600.0 Dekunova 1500.0 129 Amadeus 170.0 Amadeus 600.0 James 1450.0 130 Walt Disney 170.0 CaptainJackSparrow 600.0 Alli 1400.0 131 Murgatroyd 160.0 James 595.0 Amadeus 1400.0 132 Cochofles 155.0 Dexter of Suburbia 589.0 Fake 1400.0 133 CaptainJackSparrow 150.0 Alli 580.0 The Futurist 1350.0 134 Fake 140.0 Fake 500.0 Dexter of Suburbia 1200.0 135 mrqe93 127.0 mrqe93 370.0 mrqe93 1100.0 Average 230.4 Average 802.6 Average 2179.9 Ave Top/Bot 10 Removed 230.5 Ave Top/Bot 10 Removed 797.9 Ave Top/Bot 10 Removed 2158.7 Median 230.0 Median 791.0 Median 2104.0 No F-ing Way Too low for these reviews, Mite Happen here, but I want huge numbers dammit! JC relinquishes 18 year crown. Kalel009Shel aka Superman001 commits suicide Now we're cooking with grease! could happen,should at least happen God damn it, Gump! You're a goddamned genius! Thats the most outstanding answer I have ever heard! You must have a goddamned I.Q. of 160! You are goddamned gifted, Private Gump! I am convinced that 230+ 1B+ 2B+ are going to happen at this point with 100% awareness and RT at 95% Avatar WW will be a challenge with SK and China not nearly as excited as they were for AOU and JW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VGPOP Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Wow. Just wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChD Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Wrote 185 in Derby and left it like that, considering whether to change it to 285M or not, because the hype was definitely there. Decided to do it, but it was too late... and now with those midnights, unless it crashes and burns, the movie should easily do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 27 minutes ago, ChD said: Wrote 185 in Derby and left it like that, considering whether to change it to 285M or not, because the hype was definitely there. Decided to do it, but it was too late... and now with those midnights, unless it crashes and burns, the movie should easily do that. You are surprised pleasantly to the upside though right? Setting low expectations becomes a nice gift regardless where your predictions land. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
