2012 Best Picture Thread

[pixiesvision]

No way in hell The Avengers gets in. TDKR mayyyyybe, but no to TA.For now:The MasterLes MisLincolnBOTSWMoonrise KingdomDjangoTDKRLife of PiAmourMK, TDKR, Django, LoP on the border out of 5

Seriously. Look at this list. There is no way TA will get a nod. The competition is way too strong this year (granted they are all good and not utter garbage). Even TDKR is a long shot at this point, IMO.

[riczhang]

I don't understand why anyone would think The Avengers would get a nod. Just because a movie is good doesn't make it an automatic shoo-in for the Oscars. TA is not the type of film the Academy would recognize. Like Dexter of Suburbia mentioned above with HP, tons of people were vocal about the Potter series getting some sort of recognition with their final film. People wanted to see Alan Rickman for supporting, Best Picture, to no avail. Potter is still more of an AMPAS friendly film than TA, IMO. You have to recognize the people who make up the AMPAS first, and realize that they don't just nominate a film because it was good, or the fact that it made a lot of money. Seriously, look at movies (in this case blockbusters) in the past that were good/great that weren't recognized. Fans are pushier now for films they love to get consideration, but there is a difference in a movie being a realistic shot to a long shot.

Potter suffered because it was a children's book movie. Plain and simple, the Academy members didn't want to rank a "kiddy" movie their number one, and that's where it suffered. Animation's gotten in during the previous years, because there wasn't a 5% #1 vote rule, so their slightly lower rankings by a huge number of academy voters got it through. Also you have to realise that Potter, while the movie was good does not stand alone as a very good movie, as you must know the premise of the movie or else it just doesn't make sense, and not a lot of Academy members have read the books, nor seen the movies. Animation has an upper hand here because each of the movies, are coherent just by itself while Potter isn't. LOTR, and Superhero movies are at an advantage here because a lot of Academy members grew up reading LOTR, and reading those Avengers, and Batman comics, while Potter didn't come out until they were already in their late 40's early 50's so they didn't read them, and they don't have the same kind of sentimental attachment to the movies.

[riczhang]

Seriously. Look at this list. There is no way TA will get a nod. The competition is way too strong this year (granted they are all good and not utter garbage). Even TDKR is a long shot at this point, IMO.

At least 50% of the films will fail, if not upwards of 80%.

[pixiesvision]

Potter suffered because it was a children's book movie. Plain and simple, the Academy members didn't want to rank a "kiddy" movie their number one, and that's where it suffered. Animation's gotten in during the previous years, because there wasn't a 5% #1 vote rule, so their slightly lower rankings by a huge number of academy voters got it through. Also you have to realise that Potter, while the movie was good does not stand alone as a very good movie, as you must know the premise of the movie or else it just doesn't make sense, and not a lot of Academy members have read the books, nor seen the movies. Animation has an upper hand here because each of the movies, are coherent just by itself while Potter isn't. LOTR, and Superhero movies are at an advantage here because a lot of Academy members grew up reading LOTR, and reading those Avengers, and Batman comics, while Potter didn't come out until they were already in their late 40's early 50's so they didn't read them, and they don't have the same kind of sentimental attachment to the movies.

I partially agree with you about the reasons for why Potter may have not been nominated, but I don't agree that the AMPAS hasn't read the books or that they didn't like the film. It got great reviews overall, and I'm sure they liked it enough. But like I said, a good film does not an Oscar worthy film make. Superhero movies have a less chance at getting a nod, IMO. SM2 is considered to be a great superhero movie and held in high standards. So is TDK, yet they failed to make the cut. Granted, they both came out in years where the academy only put 5 films in consideration instead of 10, but I really doubt that they have any more clout with voters over your typical Oscar films. Edited June 25, 2012 by pixiesvision

[MovieMan89]

Don't get me wrong, I don't think TA has any chance at all (although last year I think it would have due to how weak the competition was) I'm just saying I think between TDKR and TA, TA actually will stand the better chance. Better box office and I'm assuming better reviews.

Edited June 25, 2012 by MovieMan89

[pixiesvision]

Don't get me wrong, I don't think TA has any chance at all (although last year I think it would have due to how weak the competition was) I'm just saying I think between TDKR and TA, TA actually will stand the better chance. Better box office and I'm assuming better reviews.

Better reviews and more money means squat in Academy voting. Who got the most undeserved spot in the Oscar nods for Best Pic last year? Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close... Poor box office, not good reviews, and yet it got in over a film like Shame, which people thought had a better chance. Looking back to the year TDK was released, the Reader got a nod over it, and TDK had better reviews, made more money... This argument holds no weight.

[MovieMan89]

Better reviews and more money means squat in Academy voting. Who got the most undeserved spot in the Oscar nods for Best Pic last year? Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close... Poor box office, not good reviews, and yet it got in over a film like Shame, which people thought had a better chance. Looking back to the year TDK was released, the Reader got a nod over it, and TDK had better reviews, made more money... This argument holds no weight.

Well I can assure you the only way TDKR will have a shot is if it gets 90%+ on RT. They're not gonna look twice at a comic book movie that's only 80% quality or something like that. Plenty of those come along every year. Edited June 25, 2012 by MovieMan89

[riczhang]

I partially agree with you about the reasons for why Potter may have not been nominated, but I don't agree that the AMPAS hasn't read the books or that they didn't like the film. It got great reviews overall, and I'm sure they liked it enough. But like I said, a good film does not an Oscar worthy film make. Superhero movies have a less chance at getting a nod, IMO. SM2 is considered to be a great superhero movie and held in high standards. So is TDK, yet they failed to make the cut. Granted, they both came out in years where the academy only put 5 films in consideration instead of 10, but I really doubt that they have any more clout with voters over your typical Oscar films.

The Academy haven't read the books, and of course they don't don't like the film, because most of them unless they're seeing them with their grandchildren, haven't seen the films. I can tell you, that if I'm the typical Academy voter, who likes the feel-good, artsy films [not things like Shame, or Weekend, or Kevin] the last thing I'd want to do is dig through my 86 screeners that I got last year, and watch Harry Potter. They can't vote for something they don't see, and even if they have seen them, it still has the Kiddy movie factor to it, which takes away even more votes from it. Superhero films at least get more academy screener viewership because many academy members grew up reading the comics, so at least there is a sentimental factor encouraging them to watch it [Kinda like how Toy Story 3 was so amazingly successful, and how Monsters University will be next year]. And a super hero movie isn't really a kiddy movie, so that always helps when compared to a film like HP.

[riczhang]

Well I can assure you the only way TDKR will have a shot is if it gets 90%+ on RT. They're not gonna look twice at a comic book movie that's only 80% quality or something like that. Plenty of those come along every year.

For TDKR it probably needs 100%. Keep in mind, the Academy doesn't like darker movies, and TDKR is a fairly dark movie, probably more so than TDK. TA while its chances aren't good, at least is a feel good movie, which the Academy likes, and generally votes for, and awards more often.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Well I can assure you the only way TDKR will have a shot is if it gets 90%+ on RT. They're not gonna look twice at a comic book movie that's only 80% quality or something like that. Plenty of those come along every year.

Assuming TDKR is good. TDKR could have an 85% with a 8.3 rating. TDKR is the end of trilogy. If TDKR is a good film it will be one few trilogies in the history of Hollywood to have a 3 good films and first comic book movie. Plus from the sounds of it TDKR is being a more risky film even Avengers.I doubt either will be nominated unless all the oscar films are bad. Plus Avengers and TDKR could hurt each other since voters might put one or the other in the 1 spot which could split the vote.

[pixiesvision]

The Academy haven't read the books, and of course they don't don't like the film, because most of them unless they're seeing them with their grandchildren, haven't seen the films. I can tell you, that if I'm the typical Academy voter, who likes the feel-good, artsy films [not things like Shame, or Weekend, or Kevin] the last thing I'd want to do is dig through my 86 screeners that I got last year, and watch Harry Potter. They can't vote for something they don't see, and even if they have seen them, it still has the Kiddy movie factor to it, which takes away even more votes from it. Superhero films at least get more academy screener viewership because many academy members grew up reading the comics, so at least there is a sentimental factor encouraging them to watch it [Kinda like how Toy Story 3 was so amazingly successful, and how Monsters University will be next year]. And a super hero movie isn't really a kiddy movie, so that always helps when compared to a film like HP.

Was there a poll with a consensus from AMPAS members saying they haven't read/don't like Potter? Likewise, was there a poll stating that they grew up reading and loving comic books?News to me...Also, I don't get why you think the Academy favors "feel good" films over ones that aren't. Just because the films nominated this past year happened to slant more towards the bright side doesn't mean they ignore depressing or dark films. Schindler's List, Life is Beautiful, No Country for Old Men (which won their year), There Will be Blood, The Hurt Locker, Saving Private Ryan, The Departed, Million Dollar Baby, the Reader, Platoon, Silence of the Lambs, The Deer Hunter, the Godfather Pt. 1 and 2, I could go on and on-are all considered "dark" films.And your last point about Comic Book films not being "kiddie." Why then do they have goods marketed towards kids? Heck, the Avengers had a trailer featured on the Disney Channel. The studio told Soundgarden to tone down their song for the soundtrack to keep it more family friendly. I don't think you could put (most) comic book films in line with films like Taxi Driver or the King's Speech. As far as I'm concerned Potter and comic book films have the same sort of saavy audience that ranges young and old.

[riczhang]

Was there a poll with a consensus from AMPAS members saying they haven't read/don't like Potter?Likewise, was there a poll stating that they grew up reading and loving comic books?News to me...Also, I don't get why you think the Academy favors "feel good" films over ones that aren't. Just because the films nominated this past year happened to slant more towards the bright side doesn't mean they ignore depressing or dark films. Schindler's List, Life is Beautiful, No Country for Old Men (which won their year), There Will be Blood, The Hurt Locker, Saving Private Ryan, The Departed, Million Dollar Baby, the Reader, Platoon, Silence of the Lambs, The Deer Hunter, the Godfather Pt. 1 and 2, I could go on and on-are all considered "dark" films.And your last point about Comic Book films not being "kiddie." Why then do they have goods marketed towards kids? Heck, the Avengers had a trailer featured on the Disney Channel. The studio told Soundgarden to tone down their song for the soundtrack to keep it more family friendly. I don't think you could put (most) comic book films in line with films like Taxi Driver or the King's Speech. As far as I'm concerned Potter and comic book films have the same sort of saavy audience that ranges young and old.

And how many of those "Dark" films were financed by studios for no other purpose than for the Studio to get oscars? Studios and especially the small indie ones don't finance a There Will Be Blood, or etc. to make loads of money, they finance them to get oscars. It's a totally different comparison, TA, and TDKR are all financed to make money, so they're two separate types of movies. Superhero movies, are aimed not only at kids, but also at the older generation as well, who grew up with these comics, which have sure as hell been around for a lot longer than HP. Poll, there hasn't been a poll, but that's the general air I get when I talk to AMPAS members for Potter, and comic books wise, that was just me assuming.

[Plain Old Tele]

Actually, I don't agree that TDKR needs a super-high RT score or universal critical acclaim to get in. If it touches on something the Academy finds meaningful and important, then it has a chance. THE READER wasn't even Fresh, for chrissakes (obviously it had "the Holocaust factor", not to mention "the Harvey factor". But if TDKR is in the 80s or low 90s, it could easily get in. Look at AVATAR.

[riczhang]

Actually, I don't agree that TDKR needs a super-high RT score or universal critical acclaim to get in. If it touches on something the Academy finds meaningful and important, then it has a chance. THE READER wasn't even Fresh, for chrissakes (obviously it had "the Holocaust factor", not to mention "the Harvey factor". But if TDKR is in the 80s or low 90s, it could easily get in. Look at AVATAR.

Avatar was Jim Cameron, and it had huge amounts of residual good will from Titanic, and it was released at the height of the Awards season, which ensured that it was fresh on everyone's mind. The fact that the second week drop was something like 6.5%, and it refused to die [On Oscar Weekend it still pulled in 8 mil, placing 5th, 12 weeks after its release]. Academy members knew about the film, and remembered it because it was everywhere, it was humongous, and the fact that it claimed the top domestic, and WW crown, right after nominations were announced guaranteed even more free press[as it that leggy run, wasn't enough already], which kept the entire movie very fresh throughout the entire season. Now, TDKR, and TA as well, and HP, and etc. all will have or have had a very hard time doing what Avatar did, and by the time December comes, and nomination ballots are due, most academy members probably won't even remember TDKR, and etc.

[Impact]

Looks like another boring year now....

[riczhang]

Looks like another boring year now....

Come on, we haven't seen most of the movies....

[Impact]

Yeah I know, but I just wish some mainstream films can win for once. *sigh* Sorry don't want to talk about it

[AniNate]

Actually, I don't agree that TDKR needs a super-high RT score or universal critical acclaim to get in. If it touches on something the Academy finds meaningful and important, then it has a chance. THE READER wasn't even Fresh, for chrissakes (obviously it had "the Holocaust factor", not to mention "the Harvey factor". But if TDKR is in the 80s or low 90s, it could easily get in. Look at AVATAR.

It's coming after The Dark Knight. If the reviews aren't glowing, there's going to be an aura of disappointment surrounding the film and people won't feel as passionate pushing for it at the Oscars.

[MovieMan89]

Yeah I know, but I just wish some mainstream films can win for once. *sigh* Sorry don't want to talk about it

I'm with you there. I'm sick of the decade of indie Best Pictures. Yeah a few have deserved it but a lot haven't. I miss the old days when what was mainstream and what won went fairly hand in hand. That's why I'd love if PJ and co could hit another home run with The Hobbits and get some recognition for part 2.

[Impact]

I remember that coming on in the radio after the 2007 Oscars about how this lady said she grew up watching the Oscars. But that year was so bad as the winners were just off.I mean:The Hurt...what?The Artist? Whats that? A silent fim. Your kidding right? A silent film won best picture?