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druv10

Star Wars TFA 2nd Wknd Actual: 149.2M !!!

By druv10, in Numbers and Data

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

 

Actually not a bad movie. Aside from a couple stupid jokes Arnie acquits himself pretty well.

That was Tele's last post, tho :ph34r: T:G killed him.

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Deathlife Box Office Gold

Deathlife

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Baumer Fett said:

Someone said that 58 mill for SW is a pretty good number if you think about it.  That's implying that there might be some universe where 58 mill might be some kind of a disappointment.  There's nothing to think about, these numbers are ridiculous and we have never seen a film perform like this before.  Remember when Avengers came out? That was pretty much the zeitgeist for box office giants at the time.  It's second Saturday was 42 million, a full 16 million less than TFA and that had smaller weekdays due to it being released in May.  So the demand to see it on the weekend was huge because not a lot of people could see it during the week.  TFA is killing the week days right now and still doing monstrous numbers on the weekend. 

 

Yes, it's okay to be conservative and say that a billion is not locked, but we do have patterns to follow and if you follow the 2010 pattern, which has served us well thus far, even if you reduce the coming weekdays a bit due to demand being met, the numbers are still going to be staggering.  Will it fall 20% on Monday?  I doubt it will be that low but then again, it could be.  There is a veritable excitement for Star Wars and this excitement for a film has never been matched before, not in the first 9 days at least.  So because this is still a holiday, especially in terms of box office, SW probably won't fall more than 30% on Monday and then follow similar patterns as 2010.  The biggest drop in the top 10 in 2010 on the corresponding Monday was 34.5% for It's Complicated, a film that was a nice sized hit but obviously nowhere nears as meaningful as Avatar, which fell 20%.  So imo, there's the range for Monday....20-34%.  

 

Then for New Year's weekend, again, it will probably not hold as well as Avatar as that film was building it's giant numbers at this point where SW has gone the opposite direction.  So I doubt it falls 10% on NYW, but coming off a 157 mill weekend, wouldn't a 35% fall be reasonable? So put that all together and you have the film at about 735 mill by the end of the weekend.  A billion is pretty much locked up at this point.  The weekends are going to be huge after the holidays.

 

Someone else commented that Joy dropped on Saturday so that must mean that WOM is horrible.  That's not how it works.  This is a film that opened on Friday, Christmas Day.  Anything that opens on Christmas Day is likely to drop on the next day, Sherlock Holmes did in 2010 and that got a 3.37X, so obviously WOM was pretty good.  You can't say something has poor WOM because it drops on December 26th.

 

Daddy's Home is a nice pleasant surprise and it looks to hit about 40 mill for the weekend.  If it has a 3.3 multiplier, that puts it at around 130.  Who saw that coming?  

 

The Troof and Extreme Athletes aren't doing too badly either.  Point Break is going to lose a piss load of money though because the budget is so ridiculous.  

 

Sisters is a monster hit and it too will more than likely challenge 100 mill.

 

The Big Short is doing nicely and we all know Quentin Tarantino has his fans, so they will show up for his movie.  Can't wait to see this when it goes wide.

 

This a million times.

 

I've (and most of us here) have never see a box office run like TFA before particularly during Xmas.

 

I would be fooling myself if I referred to any of the figures we're seeing regarding the movie as "disappointing". That simply doesn't make any sense.

 

At this point, we have to just sit back and watch and try to analyze as best we can because this movie is going to break records on a level we've never seen before.

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, K1Rey said:

So we should expect a nice drop here, 10% right? I think the theaters around me are going to be slammed today due to the crappy weather. 

 

I'm thinking around 53 today, would would put this right at 160.

 

At least one user from New Mexico reported to be snowed in, as in can't leave the house.

Seems to be bad e.g. in Texas / parts of Texas too (floodings,.. till yesterday 18 deaths,...).

Someone (same user?) posted a weather map, didn't look that good to me.

 

Fingers crossed no one gets hurt

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Clef Ment Box Office Gold

Clef Ment

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Magic said:

Oh, and I see Baumer excusing this sub 180M weekend. Should have beat IM3. Let's not pretend this 155M weekend isn't mediocre, because it is. 

 

Not just mediocre, I personally think also this $155M second weekend, coming from a $250M OW, is laughable!

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Caesar Indie Sensation

Caesar

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I think it's way too early to attribute it's drop (which was minimal) was down to WOM. 

 

What did you say when True Grit, Benjamin Button, Django Unchained, Les Mis all dropped on the 26th? 

 

Sure they all did bigger business first day, but the same logic applies. 

 

I don't think anyone can say with any kind of certainty what Joy's WOM is after 24 hours. 

 

True Grit held well actually for the comparable movies. Django and Les Mis both dropped hard and in line with their comparable movies. I will give you Benjamin Button but that movie had an unusual story, I would expect it to take time for it to gain attention from WOM, definitely an outlier. What you're missing though is that on this particular date a Friday Christmas followed by a Saturday Boxing Day, movies don't typically drop and if they do it's only a small percentage. It doesn't matter what has happened other years when the dates are different, what matters is this year when two movies that did slightly smaller business that Joy managed to increase and a movie that had a far greater opening managed a far smaller drop minus previews.

 

I'm just saying that Joy is acting different than I would have expected. This is supposed to be a feel good movie for the holidays, it's targeting the demographic which isn't interested in the other movies opening, it's a very easy sell.

 

Personally I don't like extrapolating an entire run based on two days estimates, but in my experience when a movie is showing early signs of being front loaded (especially when it's a movie that shouldn't be) then it's going to be front loaded. Not always of course (as mentioned Benjamin Button didn't follow this theory) but history suggests that Joy is going to be front loaded. I hope it's not (it seems like it's an appealing movie), but it seems the most likely possibility at the moment.

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