a2k Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Which movie in the near future can challenge SW7? Right now I don't think Avatar 2 or SW 8 can. Avatar's record held for 6 years. This will hold longer I guess. Cameroon is relinquishing the crown after a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I'm thinking December will be around $1.3 billion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daxtreme Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 3 minutes ago, a2knet said: Which movie in the near future can challenge SW7? Right now I don't think Avatar 2 or SW 8 can. Avatar's record held for 6 years. This will hold longer I guess. Cameroon is relinquishing the crown after a long time. Probably a movie that we don't even know will be made yet. When Avatar broke all records in 2009, nobody could guess that 1. Star Wars would be continued and 2. It would break almost all records. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 (edited) 8 minutes ago, a2knet said: Which movie in the near future can challenge SW7? Right now I don't think Avatar 2 or SW 8 can. Avatar's record held for 6 years. This will hold longer I guess. Cameroon is relinquishing the crown after a long time. I agree, the Avatar sequels and Star Wars sequels are the best bet, though I think neither are very likely. Avatar was a fantastic film (I saw it three times in the theaters) but it was a pioneering film for 3D PLF, and drew a lot attention from that novelty. If Cameron can market the sequels as a technical achievement of some sort, he may be able to match the original Avatar's adjusted haul, but where is the fanbase that propels this over $1B? I just don't see it, but I could be very wrong. I think the Star Wars sequels have a better chance, particularly SW9, but TFA is reaching corners of the market that suggest it's not just a film, but a cultural event. Now I could be wrong, and there may just be that many Star Wars fans out there, but I think total ticket sales for the sequels will drop down to Avatar/TDK levels. Even with inflation, that won't be enough to eclipse TFA, which is tracking at about $1.1B from where I sit. Of course, this is all very speculative, and you never know when another Titanic happens. Edited December 30, 2015 by LinksterAC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Star Wars will get its way to 800 million domestic with second run theatres, and really good holding power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Just now, Maxmoser3 said: Star Wars will get its way to 800 million domestic with second run theatres, and really good holding power. You realize itll be at 800 by january 10th 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 2 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said: Star Wars will get its way to 800 million domestic with second run theatres, and really good holding power. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 5 minutes ago, a2knet said: Which movie in the near future can challenge SW7? Right now I don't think Avatar 2 or SW 8 can. Avatar's record held for 6 years. This will hold longer I guess. Cameroon is relinquishing the crown after a long time. I think that depends extremly on the quality of the movie (story, actors,...), maybe even more on the re-watch enjoyablitiy, the advertising, the international 'it-clicks', if ww was meant too, and to 4-quadrant fullfilled, multi races (I hope I use the correct term), and to a degree on the 'acceptable' genre-mix for people usually not liking that much certain genres. 3D / special efffects, not too shaky for 4-quadrant, ... I think there are possibilities if all points match, and if the material is either very unique or has a broader 'in the know' base than usual But for movie series' I think a certain ammount of freshness is also a must If only one major point (like e.g. re-watchenjoyment) is lacking, then that hurts too at least the next installment schedule has too be timed for max possible But that is what I think about all possible blockbusters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 (edited) I think WW is still in play right now. China is the X-Factor. I think TFA most likely settles around $2.5B, though. There's no doubt in my mind that if exchange rates were more like 2010, Avatar would be toast. And frankly, the domestic total would be significantly better too. 10% of admissions come from Canada, and they've seen their currency devalue 40% compared to the U.S. dollar since 2010. That's roughly a 4% hit on the domestic take, which means TFA would be at about $620M if 2010 exchange rates held. Edited December 30, 2015 by LinksterAC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orestes Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 3 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said: Star Wars will get its way to 800 million domestic with second run theatres, and really good holding power. Just how quickly are you expecting this to go into 2nd run theaters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 1 hour ago, DamienRoc said: If we're talking first runs, Titanic definitely sold more tickets than ANH. I believe it's something like 128m to 99m. The several subsequent releases push ANH up over that, but Titanic remains the best single run for a film in history. When Titanic broke the box office record, it did so by topping the previous record holder (ET) by 66%. TFA will have to get to 1.25b to do the same. This isn't to say that TFA's run isn't impressive. It looks like it'll be the only film besides Titanic and ET to sell 100m tickets in a single run. And like Titanic, it's going to best the previous record holder by $200m. This is an astoundingly successful box office run, and it's definitely top five in history. Yes but Titanic topped a movie that had 15 years of inflation against it. Where as TFA is blowing past a movie with 6 years of inflation against it. If TFA had inflation of 2024 and assuming no one else could pass Avatar it would beat Avatar by more than Titanic beat ET. That aside I find adjusting based on ticket price to be f-ing stupid. Here is why. Movie ticket prices have outpaced inflation since 1997(and prior). Meaning that declining ticket sales can be attributed the fact(among other factors) that a movie ticket is relatively more expensive in 2015 than it was in 1997. If you were to take Ticket prices in 1997 and then raise the price in 2015 to match inflation across the board, tickets would be cheaper, and with cheaper tickets you sell more. Also by doing this you would lower the "adjusted" totals. Basically my main point is adjusting simply based on the current price of tickets X tickets sold is not fair to a modern movie which sell a ticket a relatively higher price. You are giving the older movies the benefit they had in being relatively cheaper when they were released(thus higher volumes) with the $ advantage of the higher premiums now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 14 minutes ago, a2knet said: Which movie in the near future can challenge SW7? Right now I don't think Avatar 2 or SW 8 can. Avatar's record held for 6 years. This will hold longer I guess. Cameroon is relinquishing the crown after a long time. I don't see anything currently on the horizon that will do it. Episode 8 and 9 are both scheduled to come out in May, that ends their shot at it right there. Though either or both could break the opening weekend number. The only one that even has a remote shot right now is one of the Avatar sequels, and I don't personally think any of them will match the originals total which leaves them will leave them well short of TFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 6 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said: You realize itll be at 800 by january 10th Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 7 minutes ago, a2knet said: Which movie in the near future can challenge SW7? Right now I don't think Avatar 2 or SW 8 can. Avatar's record held for 6 years. This will hold longer I guess. Cameroon is relinquishing the crown after a long time. Who knows? This is part of the problem I have with box office groups putting so much emphasis on predictions. The clubs and such are fun, but not particularly useful in terms of analysis. The films that have broken the opening or box office records have been generally a surprise, sometimes even at the moment of release. Even six months from release, we're dealing with such a limited amount of information that trying to say what will or won't challenge a record is a really slim proposition. We have an unfortunate tendency to overrate the information we do have. Franchises and brands give us track records, so we invariably look to those things, even though, prior to TFA, every all time champion hasn't had an established brand behind it. So while whatever tops TFA may be from a brand, it also might be something out of left field. OW records tend to be a bit more franchise focused, but even there it can be a surprise. After AOU failed to get the record, many of us thought that Avengers would remain the OW champion for quite some time. And yet we've seen the record fall twice just since then, neither of which at the time seemed like a strong possibility. (Heck, it didn't feel like JW had a shot until after Friday was known.) As far as Avatar 2 or SW8, I don't think either has a strong chance right now. There's so much in the air regarding Avatar, including release date, that pinning anything down seems premature. As far as SW8, well, there's a fair track record for the SW trilogies. The first film grosses the most. The second falls a fair bit. The third rebounds, but is still below the first. While that could change, it's probably a good guess that TFA is going to be the high water mark for forthcoming Star Wars films. Though I'd give both SW8 and SW9 shots at doing better over the OW period, particularly if they have May releases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 BoxOffice @BoxOffice THE HATEFUL EIGHT took in $0.994M on Tuesday from 100 locations and has grossed $6.65M in 5 days domestically. #TheHatefulEight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I'm really curious to see what Hateful Eight does today considering TWC just moved it up yesterday and not many are aware. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 BoxOffice @BoxOffice ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE ROAD CHIP took in $4.64M on Tuesday and has grossed $48.16M to date domestically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Titanic didn't gross $2.19B WW, it's a scam. Why did people add Titanic 3D's run? It's misleading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 BoxOffice @BoxOffice JOY took in $2.85M on Tuesday and has grossed $22.48M in 5 days domestically. #Joy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 2 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said: Exhibitor Relations @ERCboxoffice 2m2 minutes ago STAR WARS is at $627M int'l: UK ($116M) GER ($66M) FRA ($56M) OZ ($42M) JPN ($37M) ESP ($22M) MEX ($21M) ITA ($21M) Holy hell that's massive for SW7. 200M+ in UK, 110M+ in Germany, 100M for France and Australia and potential 100M in Japan, staggering to say the least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
