XXR & Friends Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Just now, The Panda Menace said: That's assuming 30% drops for Force Awakens, possible, but not guaranteed or conservative. I think overall I was pretty conservative. Even if I dropped that $105 million to $80 million and the $73 million to $53 million we're still at $870 million. It could still do half as well as Avatar did it's remaining time in theaters and get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caladbolg Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 If it was like $950m-999m I think Disney would expand it. Hell they let Tangled stay in theaters for 27 weeks just so it could cross $200m. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Just now, Caladbolg said: If it was like $950m-999m I think Disney would expand it. Hell they let Tangled stay in theaters for 27 weeks just so it could cross $200m. IIRC, the reasons for making sure a film gets to 100 or 200m are considerably more important than for getting to any other threshold. Something to do with payments on ancillary markets such as TV. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 In terms of dailies, this needs to match AVATAR+32% every day to hit 1 billion. It has surpassed that daily milestone every day so far, and actually has built up a nest egg of something like 260 million as a buffer. It's still building that lead each day, and probably won't fall behind until next week at the earliest. So it has an excellent chance of surpassing 1 billion. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corngrower87 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 2 hours ago, hasanahmad said: -11% is impressive considering 7% of the nation is under flood waters. Especially when the flooding is at historic levels, beating the record crests from The Great Flood of '93. I'm not saying the weather is affecting the box office one way or the other. I'm just saying this isn't your average flooding. Also, solid number for a second Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 To do it another way, because I've got time on my hands. Day 1 through 12 - $600 million (our current total) Day 1 through 12 - $250.4 million Day 13 through 17 - $137 million** Day 13 through 17 - $101.6 million Day 18 through 24 - $85 million** Day 18 through 24 - $78.8 million Day 25 through 31 - $55 million** Day 25 through 31 - $62.4 million Day 32 through 38 - $43 million** Day 32 through 38 - $58.5 million Day 39 through 45 - $30 million** Day 39 through 45 - $44.1 million Top number is TFA (First 12 day actuals, the rest estimations), bottom is Avatar. So through 45 days in my model, TFA is at $950 million. Avatar was at $596 million at the same point. Keep in mind, TFA is still pulling in $10 million more a day than Avatar right now. I only gave it a $90 million weekend even though it could be $110 million. It's not suddenly going to drop off the Earth when it gets to $850 million or something. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 5 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said: In terms at dailies, this needs to match AVATAR+32% every day to hit 1 billion. It has surpassed that daily milestone every day so far, and actually has built up a nest egg of something like 260 million as a buffer. It's still building that lead each day, and probably won't fall behind until next week at the earliest. So it has an excellent chance of surpassing 1 billion. With the latest number, buffer is around 270M and I just don't see SW7 giving all of it back.1B is happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clef Ment Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 6 minutes ago, DamienRoc said: IIRC, the reasons for making sure a film gets to 100 or 200m are considerably more important than for getting to any other threshold. Something to do with payments on ancillary markets such as TV. I think Disney would be happy to have the "First movie to reach $1B DOM". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said: In terms of dailies, this needs to match AVATAR+32% every day to hit 1 billion. It has surpassed that daily milestone every day so far, and actually has built up a nest egg of something like 260 million as a buffer. It's still building that lead each day, and probably won't fall behind until next week at the earliest. So it has an excellent chance of surpassing 1 billion. After the holidays are over, I actually see TFA mirroring Avatar's daily numbers pretty well from there on out. I'm banking on at least $330 million more from the 4th onwards Edited December 30, 2015 by VenomXXR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 1 minute ago, Clef Ment said: I think Disney would be happy to have the "First movie to reach $1B DOM". thought the same thing when I read the post. Almost implied 200m was a bigger deal for a studio to make sure a movie clears than 1 bil.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 13 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said: In terms of dailies, this needs to match AVATAR+32% every day to hit 1 billion. It has surpassed that daily milestone every day so far, and actually has built up a nest egg of something like 260 million as a buffer. It's still building that lead each day, and probably won't fall behind until next week at the earliest. So it has an excellent chance of surpassing 1 billion. Still think it ends up at like 925-950*. So close yet so far(too far for a push). Still, beating the prior record holder by nearly 200m is astounding and should hold up for a lot longer than Avatar's record will. The next record breaker after TFA should top 1B. Maybe Episode IX(finale factor)? *caveat is if it receives more Oscar attention than technical/music, then all bets are off for 1B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I was gonna go check out Big Short or Concussion tomorrow, but I think I'm gonna take a breather from theater movies and maybe finish up Fargo instead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Oh the overreactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daxtreme Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 (edited) 2 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said: The FORCE AWAKENS will not, NOT Receive any Oscar Nominations for anything other than Technical.. The acting was serviceable and really, nothing to write home about.. The actors involved got the job done... Saved in case it gets nominated for Best Picture. It did get featured in some critics top 10 for the year. Its chances aren't 0 (although they're very low, like 5%). If it gets nominated, I'll like your post! Edited December 30, 2015 by Daxtreme 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 (edited) the force awakens juggernaut will receive a BP nom no doubt. Edited December 30, 2015 by B J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTF Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Just now, B J said: the force awakens juggernaut will receive a BP no doubt. No doubt? I mean it could, but there's a lot of doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 5 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said: The FORCE AWAKENS will not, NOT Receive any Oscar Nominations for anything other than Technical.. The acting was serviceable and really, nothing to write home about.. The actors involved got the job done... Avatar, Titanic, ET, Star Wars, Jaws pretty much every film that was the highest grossing film at the time has gotten a best pic nomination. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icicle Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 7 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said: The FORCE AWAKENS will not, NOT Receive any Oscar Nominations for anything other than Technical.. The acting was serviceable and really, nothing to write home about.. The actors involved got the job done... Score is possible, but I agree no acting nominations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 10 minutes ago, Blan Solo said: I was gonna go check out Big Short or Concussion tomorrow, but I think I'm gonna take a breather from theater movies and maybe finish up Fargo instead Fargo was easily the best thing on tv the last two years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 3 minutes ago, FTF said: No doubt? I mean it could, but there's a lot of doubt. I don't expect a win, but a nom will happen fo sho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
