Baumer's Star Wars The Force Awakens Rant

[baumer]

If this post ends up offending anyone, I apologize ahead of time.  It is not my intention to do so.  

 

There has just been so much said about Star Wars the Force Awakens in the last three weeks, and a lot of it a bunch of trolls or trouble makers doing their best to create a little anarchy, upset the established order and then allow chaos to ensue.  So I have a response to all of this.  A lot of this will be fact and a lot of it will be opinion.  Agree with me or disagree with me, your choice, but this needs to be said, or at least I need to express it.  This is going to be a little long winded but so be it.....JEDI

 

In the beginning, before the first the presales were reported, before the first trailer hit, before the hype began, back in 2012-2013 when this film was first announced, no one thought this had a prayer of doing anything more than maybe 600 million.  And those were extreme cases.  Go back and look at Neo's OW over 160 million club.  In the beginning most if not pretty much all said it would not open that high.  Then you have my over 1.8 billion dollar club where many said I was nuts.  "This will not make more than Potter overseas."  Many were predicting numbers like 1.2 billion, 1.3 billion and so on.  Even me, the one who made the thread, had it doing about 550 domestically and 1.3 billion or more overseas.  I thought it had a chance to hit 2 billion but more because of overseas expansion.  

 

The reason I mention this to start with is that now that we are well into the run, there are posters here who say things like it's disappointing that...... or that it will be lucky to hit 2 billion or it will struggle to reach a billion and so on.  Let me as you this.  A year ago, if someone had made a thread that said that SW TFA would be at 740 million domestic by the end of the holidays and over 1.5 billion by the same mark, would you not have been told that you were the  biggest idiot of all time?  I mean, 1.5 billion in less than three weeks, are you insane?  If someone told Disney they'd make 1.5 billion total on this, do you not think they'd be thrilled?  They have taken in 1.5 billion before January 4th.  So in th beginning, not many, if any thought SW would set this kind of pace.

 

As for the numbers that we have seen.  This is a run that we might not see ever again, maybe not ever, but it will certainly take at least another 20 years or so.  There just isn't anything on this level.  This was the perfect storm.  It's a franchise that has spanned generations and generations.  It has not only survived the prequels, but it also excelled with them.  These were films that were apparently not well liked and yet they still did very well.  And this all lead up to TFA destroying records.  TFA has set 40 records, and that is just the ones that are kept track of.  Now put aside your love or hate , your bias or your impartiality and just think about this for a minute.  

 

SW smashed the record to get to 600 million by more than three weeks.  It annihilated the fastest to 700 record by months.  You have to look at the numbers here and realize that this is history...we are witnessing history.  And we are only at January the  3rd.  Star Wars will play strongly in January and February and will start to disappear into March and April when the bigger spring/summer films start to come out.  But by that time, I believe that SWTFA will be past a billion.  I also think it will get past 2.2 billion WW and sit at number 2 of all time.  But domestically, I don't think any film touches this for at least 15 years.   And this brings me to my next point.

 

This has nothing to do with how great a run Avatar and Titanic had.  Both films are box office giants among giants.  Just because one movie passes another, doesn't diminish what they accomplished.  Avatar is a freak of box office and I don't think we will see a run like that again...EVER.  I know never is a very long time, but with the way the box office has changed now, films don't open to 75 million and have 10X anymore.  I'll get bck to TFA in a minute as it pertains to this as well, but opening to 75 million is quite a feat.  But then to get a 10 multiplier out of it is unheard of.  In today's climate, you have torrents, the black market, films streaming on Android boxes as the films are playing in theaters.  So to get people to come out to see your film is daunting enough when all you have to do is wait a few weeks and it's there for you to see for free.

 

And that brings us back to TFA.  My buddy watched it on his Android box this morning.  I was at one of the flea markets here in northern Toronto and there is a good copy of it available for $4.00. I refuse to buy it and not just because I'm a nerd and I want to see SW make as much money as possible, but because imo, SW is one of the few movies that demands to be seen on big screen. I've seen it 5X and tonight will be my sixth.  I've spent about $60 on it and I still can't get enough of it.  This is a special film to so many of us.  Getting back to my buddy that watched it on his Android box, he is taking his two sons to see it next week in IMAX.  I rest my case.  It just has to be seen on big screen.

 

I think 99% of us know it is not going to pass Avatar WW.  That takes nothing away from either film.  Whatever SW accomplishes is already more....WAY MORE than anyone thought it would.  And this brings me to the trolls and the other posters who try to mitigate what it has done with their constant digs.  Look, I get not necessarily liking a film but  you don't have to constantly and mornonically say that it is going to end with some low ball number that you know is impossible.  That one dude stevejaros, he  said something like 850 million is the ceiling now.  Now he is either a troll or misinformed.  It's about 120 million away from that now and by next Sunday will likely be about 40 million away from that number.  Look, I don't understand Potter's popularity but I have never slagged its box office, in fact I have praised it.  You don't have to bring one down to appreciate the other.  That says more about your character than it does about the films performance.  

 

This is a momentous time as a box office nerd.  This is the time we have been dreaming about.  This is why these forums were made, for times like these when we can all celebrate the box office.  Runs like this, these first 17 days, they don't happen, they never have before.  Not with these kinds of numbers.  We should be happy that we are witnessing this, not incessantly bickering back and forth with one another.

 

Part Two:

 

There are those who have done nothing but compare this with Avatar,whether it be the drops, the box office, the admissions, the international numbers, the potential Chinese gross and so on.  ENOUGH ALREADY.  Avatar did what it did.  Just because it dropped 33% on Christmas Eve, doesn't mean SW should as well and if it falls more, that doesn't the number "disappointing" or "poor".  All it means is that SW  is creating it's own path.  Avatar opened to 30% of what SW did.  And yet when SW has harsher drops on some days, there are those who choose to use this as some sort of measuring stick.  This doesn't make any sense.  Their runs are not the same thing.  It's not the same ballpark either. In fact, it isn't the same fuckin ballpark, it ain't the same league and it ain't the same fuckin sport.

 

Look at what Star Wars has done in terms of days of the week records.  Non holiday Monday record, non opening Wednesday, non opening Friday, second Friday and the list goes on and on.  Avatar didn't work like this.  It didn't have an initial rush. SW burned off so much demand and yet it still kept the cash registers going.  And the only reason it doesn't have any non opening Thursday records is because both Thursdays fell on EVEs (Christmas and New Years).  But when you have your third Friday doing about 29% of your opening record setting Friday, then you have done something special.  Avengers couldn't come close to that, neither could The Dark Knight.  In fact the only other opening weekend record holder than managed to do that was Spider-man.  And for those of you who remember 2001 clearly, they know how big a deal that was when it smashed the 100 million opening weekend mark.  It was unfathomable at the time.  Kind of like the 247 is right now.  

 

SW should have dropped more than this.  SW already has a 3X (2.99 actually).  The best multiplier for an opening weekend record holder is 3.53 by Spider-man.  For TFA, if it were to get a 3.53X, it would end with 872 million.  We all know that it will fly by that with ease.  This might be one of the biggest tell tale signs that what we are witnessing here is history.  For an opening weekend record holder to probably get a 4 multiplier is insane.  And I doubt we'll see that again.

 

Part three:

 

The revisionist historians:

 

This has been popping up here only in the last few days.  You have some of the members here saying that the only reason its doing so well is because it opened in December and if it opened in the summer, it would be nowhere near as successful.  This is one of the most asinine and ridiculous things to say.  Those of you saying this, do you not remember why most of us didn't think it would open that well?  BECAUSE IT WAS OPENING IN DECEMBER.

 

"Too many other things to do."

"Christmas season spreads out the gross"

"Hobbit is the record holder with 84 million, no way it doubles that"

"Opening will be decent but legs will be great"

 

If you guys think the only reason it is doing so well is because of the Christmas season, then why has not other film in the history of film EVER POSTED THESE KINDS OF NUMBERS BEFORE IN DECEMBER?  Enough of that.

 

 I guess when it comes to the  box office, there will be people that hate no matter what but it's just so unnecessary.  And just because SW might not make more than 150 million in China, that doesn't mean it's a shit gross.  I reaslize China has grown immensely but not every film is going to do 300 million there.  

 

This bickering and baiting and trolling that has gone on now for the better part of two weeks has just gotten silly.  

 

Avatar is the WW king.

Titanic had a special run, one that will probably never happen again.

TFA is also having a special run in a different way, one that we might not see again.

 

Can't we just leave it at that?

 

Part Four:

 

The haters of the film because they didn't spell everything out for you......

 

Has it come down to this?  Does everything have to be explained to you?  There are about 2000 reasons why Rey could do what she did.  

 

Here is my take on what the story could be...OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE MASSIVE SPOILERS HERE.

 

 

Luke trains a new breed of Jedi.

Leia wants Ben trained.

Luke, assuming he has a child, wants her trained too.

Ben turns to the dark side, seduced by Vader's memory

He forms the Knights of Ren.

He takes out all the Jedi, with the exception of Rey and obviously Luke

Luke holds himself responsible, thinking he could train Jedi like Yoda, fails and decides that like Yoda and ObI Wan, he must seek exile.

He fears for his daughters life and that she too might have her grandfather's tendencies.

He erases her memory.  How?  I have no idea, I'm not Lawrence Kasdan.

He takes her to Jakku and drops her with Plutt.  He helps raise her and keeps an eye on her.

She is also probably watched over by Tekka.....he tells Poe that he has seen too much, he is also on Jakku and he obviously knew Ben as a young boy.

Plutt is the one holding her hand when she is young.  She looks to be about 4 or 5, which is old enough to have Jedi training.

Kylo/Ben would be strong with the force no doubt, but if Rey had any training as a youngster, she would probably have more natural ability because of who her father is.

Also, the awakening is her ability with the force.

When Kylo tries getting the map from her head, he awakens it in her.  He can't get it out and she can now get into his head and realize that he is a scared, petulant kid who so desperately wants to be Vader, but isn't that strong and probably won't be until he kills his dad.

She has been using elements of the force all through the movie, like maneuvering the Falcon, like Anakin did in the pod race.

When she is in Maz's basement, that sabre calls to her.  Also, Kenobi's voice does say something like follow your father's footsteps.

Maz asks Han, "Who's the girl?"  I think she has an idea who she is.

And Luke, according to Snokes is the last Jedi left.  So if that is true, then she has to be someone's kid or kin.  

All roads lead to her being Luke's kid.

Even the look at the end when Luke sees her, it kind of looks like he is shocked that she is there, but he knows her and the force told him that eventually she would complete her destiny.

Also another theory that supports her possibly having dark side tendencies, is that she was able to beat Kylo in the woods once she allowed hate and anger to enter into her. She didn't beat him by using the light side of the force.  Her hate towards him allowed her to use that rage and to then defeat him.  This is what Luke feared.  

 

Part 5:  Summation

 

If you have gotten this far, congratulations.  I think this is a film to be appreciated.  You don't have to like it artistically, but you can at least appreciate it from a box office perspective.  

 

I feel better....feels good to get that off my chest......And that's all I have to say about that.  

[The Panda]

Great post Baumer

[Dan9]

Word. 

[Water Bottle]

Amen brother.

[baumer]

Thanks for reading guys.  I like it when you chime in.

 

 

Off to the 11pm show now.  Will give a sell out report in about 15 minutes.

[Empire]

Awesome, spot on post Baumer!

[DAJK]

Preach 

 

Great post B!

[Daxtreme]

Sums up pretty much what I feel.

 

We're living history guys. Let's enjoy it! Most people around us will only ever acknowledge this box office run once it's over, once the numbers are in.

 

We're seeing them coming in, every day, firsthand. And they're amazing.

 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, Baumer Fett said:

Avatar is the WW king.

Titanic had a special run, one that will probably never happen again.

TFA is also having a special run in a different way, one that we might not see again.

This is my favorite part. It's what this forum should be about. Enjoying the spectacular runs of historic films, not nitpicking them because one is your favorite and another wasn't your cup of tea. All of these runs are unique and interesting!

Edited January 4, 2016 by VenomXXR

[Orestes]

If there's one thing I dislike about TFAs run, its how small other movie's runs in the coming months will seem. BvS opens to 180? How cute. Civil War passes 160 OW? *Pats*. I'm not sure if I'm looking forward to anything box office wise right now aside from Rogue One.

[Daxtreme]

5 minutes ago, Orestes said:

If there's one thing I dislike about TFAs run, its how small other movie's runs in the coming months will seem. BvS opens to 180? How cute. Civil War passes 160 OW? *Pats*. I'm not sure if I'm looking forward to anything box office wise right now aside from Rogue One.

 

Movies can still claim opening week-end records in their respective months!

 

I'd like to see a studio pull off an audacious September release, and score a 100+ opening week-end there.

[BoxOfficeZ]

6 minutes ago, Orestes said:

If there's one thing I dislike about TFAs run, its how small other movie's runs in the coming months will seem. BvS opens to 180? How cute. Civil War passes 160 OW? *Pats*. I'm not sure if I'm looking forward to anything box office wise right now aside from Rogue One.

 

180m for BvS and 160m for Civil War would be awesome in my opinion. 

 

[Orestes]

1 minute ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

 

180m for BvS and 160m for Civil War would be awesome in my opinion. 

 

 

Not saying they'd be bad, they'd just feel a bit "been there done that," at least for me. All my awe for box office runs has been spent, and it's gonna take awhile to recharge.

[Water Bottle]

14 minutes ago, Orestes said:

If there's one thing I dislike about TFAs run, its how small other movie's runs in the coming months will seem. BvS opens to 180? How cute. Civil War passes 160 OW? *Pats*. I'm not sure if I'm looking forward to anything box office wise right now aside from Rogue One.

 

After the Avengers amazing $200 million OW, it felt the same.

[baumer]

Nothing really to report here. Shows before 1030 are pretty busy. All shows after 11 are fairly empty. My 2d show has 20 people in it. The AVX has about 30

[Daxtreme]

41 minutes ago, Darth Water Bottle said:

 

After the Avengers amazing $200 million OW, it felt the same.

 

To be fair, I hope that the movie that beats Star Wars doesn't beat it like Jurassic World beat Avengers -- by 1 million.

 

A movie opening to 249 million would be a pretty lame way to beat Star Wars.

 

At least beat it properly! Like Batman beat Ghostbusters, The Lost World beat Batman, Spider-Man beat Harry Potter, Avengers beat Harry Potter, and so on - all by a pretty wide margin.

Edited January 4, 2016 by Daxtreme

[AniNate]

Yeesh, we can't be amazed by a narrow record break anymore? A 250 million opening weekend would still be an amazing achievement. Heck, a 200 million ow is still an amazing achievement

[jedieb]

Amazing post Baumer!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Kalo]

Baumer you nailed it! it's like you took everything I've felt over the last few weeks and puts words into it, this is possible the best post in the history of the Box Office Theory Forums! 

 

Star Wars is the most influential and beloved films series in my life and to know that it has had such an impact on the world is amazing and this run is like something out of a dream. what a wonderful time to be alive!

 

 

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, Orestes said:

If there's one thing I dislike about TFAs run, its how small other movie's runs in the coming months will seem. BvS opens to 180? How cute. Civil War passes 160 OW? *Pats*. I'm not sure if I'm looking forward to anything box office wise right now aside from Rogue One.

 

It depends for me.  As much as I like big numbers, it's more interesting for me to see a film perform great in context.

 

Meaning,

In context, Gravity's run for me was a lot more fun to track than Age of Ultron's was.  Gravity was doing the unexpected in a good way, and Age of Ultron was boringly doing well enough to not be a massive disappointment, but not good enough to really get excited about either.

 

Or say American Sniper, "only" an 89m opening, but the most impressive/interesting run of the year until we got to Force Awakens.  Even more so than Jurassic World, imo.