88TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS Discussion Topic (LIVE! Today's discussion begins on pg 33)

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

I don't need to 'learn' It's gonna win even if it doesn't win SAG.

American Hustle is one example of a SAG winner that went nowehere in the Oscars. Inglorious Basters, The Help and the list goes long.

There has been a different winner at each awards. Season is still up in the air. Again, try harder.

[MinaTakla]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

There has been a different winner at each awards. Season is still up in the air. Again, try harder.

In years where there were different winners at each awards, it was always the PGA winner that won BP in the past 8-9 years.

So in terms of probability, TBS has a 90% chance of getting it.

It's because of the pref ballot and that's a huge key in indicating the winner. TBS isn't as divisive as TR or small like Spotlight.

So yea it's winning.

[MinaTakla]

For all those doubting TBS, watch it grab the DGA in a complete shocker. In my opinion, Miller should get it but unfortunately that doesn't always work. They'll vote for what they love the most, the least divisive film, and that will be TBS.

And because DGA has many TV directors, an area McKay has proven himself in, he's getting it.

Right now I see it:

PGA - TBS

DGA - TBS

SAG - TBS (spoiler: spotlight)

BP, BD, Best Editing and Screenplay - TBS (possibly SA but Sly maybe has this most likely) 

 

[Alpha]

The race this year is still pretty up in the air. Like I think Spotlight is gonna take home SAG Ensemble and either Miller or McKay could win DGA.

[MinaTakla]

For those saying it's still up in the air, nice read:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/01/27/the-state-of-the-race-predicting-something-that-has-never-happened-before/

Edited January 27, 2016 by MinaTakla

[filmlover]

The category I'm most curious about is Supporting Actress. 5 nominees and none of them seem to have much passion to them. I think Leigh is definitely not winning, and if Mara couldn't even win at BFCA, then she's not winning anywhere. Kate Winslet winning for that performance would mostly prompt a bunch "Really?" reactions. I guess Vikander (The Danish Girl, meh) could become a consensus pick and go down as one of the most "oh, that happened" winners ever. And then there's McAdams, the only one who's in a Best Picture nominee.

[WrathOfHan]

Wow, Critics Choice has a huge correlation with the Oscars in Supporting Actress. I'm getting less confident in Mara but I'd predict Winslet before Vikander. We'll see what happens at SAG.

[CoolioD1]

all of vikander's scenes are made to be oscar clips. of course the performance and character suffer immensely for that but it probably ups her chances so whatever.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Wow, Critics Choice has a huge correlation with the Oscars in Supporting Actress. I'm getting less confident in Mara but I'd predict Winslet before Vikander. We'll see what happens at SAG.

They usually go with whoever is considered the favorite in every category for the longest time (which Mara was). So yeah, if even they didn't go for her, then no one else will. Besides, after the seeing the movie, I really don't see it as an Oscar winning performance anyway because it's such a quiet/non-showy role.

[Impact]

Watch Trumbo win the SAGs now.

(Yes I know Birdcage is the only film to do that without being nominated for bp as I said before)

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

all of vikander's scenes are made to be oscar clips. of course the performance and character suffer immensely for that but it probably ups her chances so whatever.

I hope it's whenever she just so happens to walk in and catches Lili kissing Ben Whishaw at the party. If I were by myself and not in a packed movie theater, I would've literally blurted "oh come on!" when that happened. Talk about clichéd.

[mahnamahna]

On 1/22/2016 at 5:49 PM, WrathOfHan said:

10 nominees for acting would be really excessive. 

10 nominees could work... at the very least, it would prevent blatant snubs, since there's rarely more than 10 serious contenders. With 40 nominees, nearly every great performance from that year should be included. 

 

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant 
2. Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs 
3. Michael B. Jordan - Creed 
4. Bryan Cranston - Trumbo 
5. Steve Carell - The Big Short 
6. Matt Damon - The Martian
7. Jacob Trembley - Room 
8. Ian McKellen - Mr. Holmes 
9. Johnny Depp - Black Mass
10. Will Smith - Concussion 

Best Actress

1. Brie Larson - Room 
2. Charlize Theron - Mad Max: Fury Road 
3. Cate Blanchett - Carol 
4. Jennifer Lawrence - Joy 
5. Amy Schumer - Trainwreck 
6. Saorise Ronan - Brooklyn 
7. Emily Blunt - Sicario 
8. Lily Tomlin - Grandma 
9. Alicia Vidnakier - The Danish Girl 
10. Rooney Mara - Carol 

Best Supporting Actor 

1. Sylvester Stallone - Creed
2. Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies 
3. Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation 
4. Bencio del Toro - Sicario 
5. Oscar Issac - Ex Machina 
6. Samuel L. Jackson - The Hateful Eight
7. Paul Dano - Love and Mercy 
8. Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight 
9. Christian Bale - The Big Short
10. O'Shea Jackson - Straight Outta Compton 

Best Supporting Actress 

1. Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
2. Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
3. Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs 
4. Alicia Vidnakier - Ex Machina 
5. Tessa Thompson - Creed
6. Mya Taylor - Tangerine
7. Jennifer Hudson - Chi-Raq
8. Kristen Stewart - Clouds of Sils Maria 
9. Helen Mirren - Trumbo 
10. Rebecca Ferguson - Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation (because why not  )

With 40 nominees instead of 20, you get a wide variety of people represented. I don't necessarily want the Academy to do this, but I wouldn't be upset if they did. The AMPAS can nominate however many they like since it's their ceremony 

[filmlover]

10 acting nominees in each category is waaaaaaayyyyyyy too much. Plus, part of the fun on Oscar morning is seeing who gets snubbed and whatnot.

Edited January 28, 2016 by filmlover

[The Panda]

Yeah, the answer to all the controversy isn't to broaden every cat.  BP makes sense, nothing else does.

 

More than 5 nominees makes it a joke.

[Jake Gittes]

Expanding each acting category to 6 noms would make sense to me. Maybe 7, but that's already pushing it. Anything beyond that would be ridiculous.

 

4 hours ago, mahnamahna said:

With 40 nominees, nearly every great performance from that year should be included. 

 

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant 
2. Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs 
3. Michael B. Jordan - Creed 
4. Bryan Cranston - Trumbo 
5. Steve Carell - The Big Short 
6. Matt Damon - The Martian
7. Jacob Trembley - Room 
8. Ian McKellen - Mr. Holmes 
9. Johnny Depp - Black Mass
10. Will Smith - Concussion 

 

That's not "every great performance", that's "every performance that was campaigned for and/or more than a few voters bothered to see or at least heard about". There are like 2 or 3 great performances in that group, at the most. 

 

Also I doubt they'd nominate anyone from Chi-Raq or Tangerine or (insert any critically-praised independent movie way out of the Academy's wheelhouse) even if they had 20 spots in each category.

[Joel M]

20 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

all of vikander's scenes are made to be oscar clips. of course the performance and character suffer immensely for that but it probably ups her chances so whatever.

 

The fact that she had another much buzzed about supporting performance this year will also give her a boost.

[All about Eve - old]

On Saturday, January 23, 2016 at 0:12 AM, Impact said:

 

Actors shouldn't be pitted against each other. How can you really compare Dicaprio to Fassbender this year. One man silently endures

physical hardships to create a character. The other infuses a torrent of words with emotion  to create his. 

Clearly each succeeded because they're both nominated. So why should they have to do more for an award. 

 

However,  awards do exist.

So, they should either be competitive ie the best 5 with one winner. Or they should be like the Palm Springs awards - lots of categories which can spread the honours.

 

Increasing the number of nominees to 10 or 20 is a pointless lowering of standards.

 

If awards are competitive, you're either in the top 5 or you're not. Voters either rate your performance or they don't. Demanding that they do so is rather like demanding that someone be your friend whether they like you or not!

 

 

Edited January 29, 2016 by All about Eve

[Impact]

I had Alicia V. (dang sounds like a singer's name when I do that) at number 5 on the Oscar game-but seeing that she is the frontrunner is having me move her up big time!

I thought Ronan was going to be the frontrunner back in October for actress.

Actor is anyone's race this year! Oh wait...

[Filmovie]

I know that TBS is frontrunner for BP but a part of me wants to believe that Spotlight still has a chance.

 

Unlike The Help, American Hustle and so on (that also won SAG) it has been the major frontrunner since the beginning of the season and I still don't know what the hell happened in the PGA night.

 

Just saying: Gravity and 12YaS had a tie and then only one won. So maybe Spotlight lost by not so much at PGA and can still pull out a victory for the Oscars Night. Or maybe I hope that.

 

Let it be another 2006!

[Joel M]

16 minutes ago, Filmovie said:

 

Let it be another 2006!

 

Ideally with Miller getting the DGA and then BD, BP like Scorsese.