Weekend revised estimates and 4 days totals pg 43 4 day est: RA2: 41.6: The Rev: 39.0... SW7: 32.5

[Daxtreme]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

TFA needed a 30% drop at most for the 3 day weekend to keep any long shot of 1b alive. So it is officially over.  Can't say I'm not a little disappointed after its incredible 2015 stretch got it so far, but it's still an insane run of course. Now I just hope it can make another 80m so it doesn't miss the top ten adjusted. 

 

TFA might not get to $1B, but I think it'll get closer than what most people think.

[JohnnY]

2 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

question for box office experts: Is JOY considered a flop?

ie. Is Tina Fey + Amy Po bigger box office draws than JLAW?

 

i don't think sister is outgrossing Joy because of Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, people just liked the movie I guess...

And JLaw is probably what helped Joy, because this is the kind of movie that relies on reviews and they weren't really good

[SWXII]

5 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

question for box office experts: Is JOY considered a flop?

ie. Is Tina Fey + Amy Po bigger box office draws than JLAW?

 

Not sure but Alvin is clearly a bigger draw than Quentin.

[baumer]

Ive mentioned this before but a great milestone for TFA to pass is 871 mill. That gives it a better multiplier than every OW record holder since Spiderman. Thats huge.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

TFA might not get to $1B, but I think it'll get closer than what most people think.

I don't see how it's possible without some kind of majorly marketed re-release/re-expansion that scores it at least another 40m or so. And Disney probably won't do that. 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Baumer said:

Ive mentioned this before but a great milestone for TFA to pass is 871 mill. That gives it a better multiplier than every OW record holder since Spiderman. Thats huge.

That's true too, but Snow White adjusted is still the milestone I want it to at least hit. Makes it Disney's highest ever adjusted and makes it the first film to crack the adjusted top ten since Titanic. 

[terrestrial]

On 15.1.2016 at 10:57 PM, SWXII said:

Do we get the cool graph that looks like a SpaceX launch and new projections? I am thinking 900 Million happens this month at this time. TFA passes a few giants on the adjusted list this weekend. Higher and higher.

 

I guess you mean that one? I'll add the other chart's / parts as well, still not a lot of time.

The graph shows the estimates Sunday revenues included / 3-day weekend = Monday estimates not included.

Enjoy!

 

Day	Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens	Avatar	Jurassic World	The Avengers	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Day: 0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Day: 1	$119.119.282	$26.752.099	$81.953.950	$80.813.985	$34.450.834	$37.125.547
Day: 2	$187.413.486	$52.281.135	$151.598.780	$150.371.975	$51.470.821	$64.865.362
Day: 3	$247.966.675	$77.025.481	$208.806.270	$207.438.708	$73.282.370	$84.617.303
Day: 4	$288.076.417	$93.411.301	$234.151.090	$226.337.707	$100.774.423	$92.355.596
Day: 5	$325.438.146	$109.497.762	$258.493.605	$244.014.897	$124.100.534	$100.210.686
Day: 6	$363.460.329	$125.943.053	$278.389.075	$257.627.807	$137.663.742	$106.537.873
Day: 7	$390.856.054	$137.094.051	$296.211.655	$270.019.373	$150.139.984	$113.152.900
Day: 8	$440.181.717	$160.189.097	$325.326.090	$299.242.890	$157.684.384	$123.231.727
Day: 9	$496.913.249	$188.463.503	$364.438.555	$342.148.409	$171.670.604	$137.391.893
Day: 10	$540.058.914	$212.711.184	$402.800.095	$373.071.647	$190.822.800	$150.041.265
Day: 11	$571.420.943	$232.129.323	$414.366.320	$380.995.436	$208.072.067	$156.938.532
Day: 12	$600.949.526	$250.419.951	$427.496.780	$389.473.290	$222.268.708	$168.177.061
Day: 13	$629.034.583	$268.886.074	$436.936.980	$395.813.047	$232.759.000	$179.565.290
Day: 14	$651.967.269	$283.624.210	$445.840.805	$402.021.415	$241.937.000	$189.700.814
Day: 15	$686.361.421	$308.898.218	$460.533.690	$417.257.461	$249.400.000	$200.320.148
Day: 16	$720.729.671	$334.733.769	$483.013.980	$440.844.530	$262.230.583	$211.908.785
Day: 17	$742.208.942	$352.114.898	$500.373.420	$457.665.517	$272.832.713	$221.626.882
Day: 18	$750.230.824	$360.209.452	$506.899.800	$463.353.451	$283.395.934	$228.546.604
Day: 19	$758.198.252	$367.536.685	$514.374.155	$468.271.215	$290.410.961	$238.001.325
Day: 20	$764.408.684	$374.445.852	$520.362.305	$472.239.621	$292.793.000	$242.450.337
Day: 21	$770.381.043	$380.540.297	$527.300.955	$476.684.788	$294.972.000	$246.289.507
Day: 22	$781.125.423	$393.820.950	$539.128.560	$486.349.111	$296.894.000	$251.461.852
Day: 23	$800.329.495	$415.090.487	$547.667.605	$500.415.495	$298.111.838	$259.090.870
Day: 24	$812.734.828	$430.846.514	$556.542.980	$513.371.659	$301.700.000	$263.834.893
Day: 25	$815.843.529	$435.957.707	$560.692.030	$523.907.202	$308.228.208	$265.146.005
Day: 26	$819.687.937	$441.024.441	$565.531.445	$527.173.955	$312.320.936	$266.717.281
Day: 27	$822.802.874	$445.768.203	$569.287.130	$529.688.996	$313.497.000	$267.891.777
Day: 28	$825.932.841	$450.467.005	$572.538.320	$532.463.980	$314.716.000	$269.044.187
Day: 29		$460.861.269	$577.957.895	$538.105.622	$315.773.000	$271.393.243
Day: 30		$478.115.377	$585.390.455	$547.123.535	$316.592.632	$275.583.907
Day: 31	$851.052.841	$493.252.617	$590.689.595	$552.950.398	$318.968.891	$278.212.618
Day: 32		$504.868.451	$592.840.220	$554.992.773	$323.583.085	$278.869.783
Day: 33		$509.059.398	$595.627.430	$557.214.486	$326.812.102	$279.689.070
Day: 34		$512.852.205	$597.829.670	$559.076.546	$329.040.393	$280.327.393
Day: 35		$516.797.418	$599.773.835	$561.050.725	$329.802.000	$280.989.741
Day: 36		$525.825.912	$603.031.100	$564.387.649	$330.401.000	$282.442.200
Day: 37		$542.151.962	$607.940.375	$568.934.514	$331.032.242	$285.262.419
Day: 38		$551.741.499	$611.228.810	$572.300.463	$332.500.000	$287.166.682
Day: 39		$554.981.691	$612.601.315	$573.685.968	$335.700.055	$288.613.051
Day: 40		$558.179.737	$614.331.250	$575.233.764	$337.817.998	$289.121.058
Day: 41		$561.317.325	$615.640.390	$576.583.182	$338.354.000	$289.530.240
Day: 42		$564.472.387	$616.902.775	$577.888.904	$338.910.000	$289.938.470
Day: 43		$571.911.813	$618.965.875	$580.095.059	$339.500.000	$290.655.265
Day: 44		$585.695.694	$621.941.500	$583.388.044	$340.021.012	$292.303.032
Day: 45		$595.752.416	$624.083.950	$586.794.371	$341.400.000	$293.323.831
Day: 46		$598.453.037	$625.009.700	$587.927.710	$344.131.995	$293.562.965
Day: 47		$601.141.551	$626.094.150	$589.091.616	$345.331.815	$293.831.138
Day: 48		$603.789.348	$626.920.500	$590.193.264	$345.735.000	$294.051.480
Day: 49		$606.493.323	$627.699.630	$591.247.781	$346.151.000	$294.292.520
Day: 50		$612.653.642	$628.770.350	$593.460.187	$346.532.000	$294.791.435
Day: 51		$624.193.440	$630.386.910	$596.501.976	$346.839.672	$295.799.649
Day: 52		$629.344.204	$631.601.030	$598.425.442	$347.700.000	$296.193.684
Day: 53		$631.595.771	$632.193.750	$599.387.534	$349.762.348	$296.348.737
Day: 54		$633.621.035	$632.834.270	$600.377.080	$351.133.343	$296.541.937
Day: 55		$635.470.349	$633.318.770	$601.215.735	$351.441.343	$296.696.970
Day: 56		$637.605.653	$633.726.780	$602.083.073	$351.727.000	$296.865.052
Day: 57		$642.146.324	$634.280.685	$603.388.594	$351.994.000	$297.174.579
Day: 58		$651.346.762	$635.114.340	$605.205.241	$352.277.575	$297.877.452
Day: 59		$661.217.278	$635.673.840	$606.504.744	$353.100.000	$298.333.426
Day: 60		$666.388.502	$635.936.805	$607.219.521	$355.035.095	$298.481.792
Day: 61		$668.224.829	$636.272.505	$607.764.276	$356.464.575	$298.609.930
Day: 62		$669.935.879	$636.513.090	$608.482.552	$357.367.856	$298.722.132
Day: 63		$671.721.154	$636.731.640	$608.959.760	$357.702.000	$298.884.345
Day: 64		$675.615.172	$637.067.430	$609.640.578	$358.001.000	$299.101.408
Day: 65		$683.071.751	$637.613.550	$610.558.801	$358.268.479	$299.527.804
Day: 66		$687.962.011	$637.971.480	$611.127.884	$358.900.000	$299.874.706
Day: 67		$689.237.048	$638.126.505	$611.389.326	$360.222.047	$300.161.285
Day: 68		$690.499.726	$638.322.290	$611.701.097	$361.118.934	$300.249.423
Day: 69		$691.701.910	$638.473.570	$611.973.433	$361.326.000	$300.322.891
Day: 70		$692.904.794	$638.620.980	$612.261.732	$361.541.000	$300.401.896
Day: 71		$695.981.544	$638.887.990	$612.657.166	$361.742.000	$300.532.101
Day: 72		$702.621.374	$639.307.200	$613.244.349	$361.940.947	$300.797.269
Day: 73		$706.560.068	$639.568.530	$613.660.486	$362.400.000	$300.952.379
Day: 74		$707.818.745	$639.663.325	$613.849.210	$363.400.000	$300.997.848
Day: 75		$709.304.322	$639.778.350	$614.070.615	$364.115.612	$301.044.732
Day: 76		$710.842.764	$639.872.800	$614.265.453	$364.392.000	$301.085.807
Day: 77		$712.489.342	$639.967.785	$614.438.014	$364.670.000	$301.134.992
Day: 78		$714.463.378	$640.760.745	$614.628.102	$364.913.000	$301.198.249
Day: 79		$718.126.396	$642.136.035	$614.883.015	$365.172.348	$301.324.866
Day: 80		$720.607.444	$642.978.555	$615.058.425	$366.000.000	$301.402.746
Day: 81		$721.425.412	$643.269.755	$615.156.789	$367.326.659	$301.424.668
Day: 82		$722.207.106	$643.579.580	$615.280.156	$368.210.170	$301.451.679
Day: 83		$722.954.237	$643.839.335	$615.373.694	$368.432.000	$301.473.018
Day: 84		$723.744.022	$644.043.640	$615.483.851	$368.661.000	$301.495.997
Day: 85		$725.429.879	$644.632.765		$368.873.000	$301.592.562
Day: 86		$728.329.714	$645.669.625		$369.126.293	$301.765.469
Day: 87		$730.270.443	$646.737.905	$615.996.809	$369.600.000	$301.874.933
Day: 88		$730.942.185	$647.374.160		$370.521.028	$301.921.098
Day: 89		$731.621.183	$647.516.055		$371.147.794	$301.976.034
Day: 90		$732.229.805	$647.626.080		$371.359.000	$302.023.697
Day: 91		$732.880.952	$647.728.195	$616.351.422	$371.590.000	$302.075.203
Day: 92		$733.938.158	$648.026.290		$371.790.000	$302.162.441
Day: 93		$735.684.163	$648.622.480		$372.008.809	$302.304.675
Day: 94		$736.907.957	$648.908.885	$616.768.487	$372.400.000	$302.393.021
Day: 95		$737.266.471	$648.990.715		$372.968.676	$302.421.626
Day: 96		$737.627.370	$649.084.725		$373.359.557	$302.454.449
Day: 97		$737.976.702	$649.160.275		$373.481.000	$302.485.958
Day: 98		$738.393.054	$649.224.035	$616.768.487	$373.603.000	$302.517.733
Day: 99		$738.919.556	$649.397.365		$373.721.000	$302.567.059
Day: 100		$739.798.846	$649.709.675		$373.850.755	$302.648.445
Day: 101		$740.440.529	$649.860.515	$617.039.310		$302.695.938
Day: 102		$740.684.275	$649.905.695			$302.715.735
Day: 103		$740.916.066	$649.958.405		$374.556.572	$302.738.507
Day: 104		$741.140.003	$650.010.785			$302.757.024
Day: 105		$741.352.439	$650.052.290	$617.446.423		$302.779.925
Day: 106		$741.699.502	$650.163.170			$302.805.622
Day: 107		$742.076.465	$650.359.290		$374.830.647	$302.833.169
Day: 108		$742.332.678	$650.442.740	$617.595.391		$302.849.493
Day: 109		$742.497.942	$650.465.295			$302.860.946
Day: 110		$742.605.267	$650.493.055		$375.204.550	$302.871.198
Day: 111		$742.721.098	$650.518.930			$302.880.835
Day: 112		$742.844.322	$650.539.750	$617.685.111		$302.893.299
Day: 113		$743.083.175	$650.621.115			$302.905.358
Day: 114		$743.448.904	$650.760.850		$375.378.000	$302.922.520
Day: 115		$743.688.973	$650.831.970	$617.800.446		$302.932.624
Day: 116		$743.767.458	$650.852.290			$302.935.557
Day: 117		$743.853.911	$650.875.150		$375.667.233	$302.938.604
Day: 118		$743.935.257	$650.896.740			$302.941.346
Day: 119		$744.020.453	$650.917.060	$617.849.893		$302.944.389
Day: 120		$744.275.947	$650.976.600	$618.233.009		$302.953.301
Day: 121		$744.750.989	$651.072.535	$618.921.193	$375.831.230	$302.966.623
Day: 122		$745.023.267	$651.128.985	$619.760.594		$302.975.075
Day: 123		$745.115.019	$651.157.740	$620.323.837		$302.976.741
Day: 124		$745.219.191	$651.175.845		$376.058.551	$302.978.573
Day: 125		$745.330.634	$651.193.850			$302.980.257

 

 

 

Chart sorted per non-US revenues, as it's now also in the $1b 'club'

Row	Rank	Title	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year^
1	1	Avatar	Fox	$2,788.0	$760.5	27.3%	$2,027.5	72.7%	2009^
2	2	Titanic	Par.	$2,186.8	$658.7	30.1%	$1,528.1	69.9%	1997^
3	6	Furious 7	Uni.	$1,515.0	$353.0	23.3%	$1,162.0	76.7%	2015
4	4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$1,669.0	$652.3	39.1%	$1,016.7	60.9%	2015
5	3	Star Wars 7	BV	$1,869.5	$856.9	45.8%	$1,012.6	54.2%	2015
6	8	HP Deathly Hallows 2	WB	$1,341.5	$381.0	28.4%	$960.5	71.6%	2011

 

TOP WEEKENDS: 5th (3-day's results)

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weeknd Gross*	% of Total	Theaters / Avg.		Total Gross^	Date**
1	Avatar	Fox	$42,785,612	5.7%	3,285	$13,025	$749,766,139	12/18/09
2	Titanic	Par.	$30,011,034	5.0%	2,767	$10,846	$600,788,188	12/19/97
3	Frozen	BV	$28,596,319	7.1%	3,335	$8,575	$400,738,009	11/27/13
4	Star Wars 7	BV	$25,120,000	2.9%	3,822	$6,572	$856,944,841	12/18/15
5	The Sixth Sense	BV	$22,896,967	7.8%	2,775	$8,251	$293,506,292	8/6/99

The only title on that chart without an holiday boost is Frozen btw

 

All time adjusted dom

10	Snow White & the 7 Dwarfs	Dis.	$938,490,000	$184,925,486	1937^
11	101 Dalmatians	Dis.	$860,287,500	$144,880,014	1961^
12	Star Wars 7	BV	$856,944,800	$856,944,841	2015
13	The Empire Strikes Back	Fox	$845,335,300	$290,475,067	1980^

[setna]

8 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

TFA might not get to $1B, but I think it'll get closer than what most people think.

 

How much do you think?

At this moment i think is very difficult to go beyond 920....

[setna]

5 minutes ago, Baumer said:

Ive mentioned this before but a great milestone for TFA to pass is 871 mill. That gives it a better multiplier than every OW record holder since Spiderman. Thats huge.

 

What was the multipler for Spiderman?

[Daxtreme]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don't see how it's possible without some kind of majorly marketed re-release/re-expansion that scores it at least another 40m or so. And Disney probably won't do that. 

 

I never said it'd hit $1B, I said it will get closer than what most people think. Currently, most people think it's gonna finish at 920. I say more like 950-960

[MovieMan89]

Ugh, Entertainment Weekly really needs to just stop if their writers aren't going to have a clue what they're talking about. There's a sidebar in the latest issue that suggests TFA could have a shot at $3b WW. 

[Walt Disney]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That's true too, but Snow White adjusted is still the milestone I want it to at least hit. Makes it Disney's highest ever adjusted and makes it the first film to crack the adjusted top ten since Titanic.

 

For me, I want it to pass The Exorcist adjusted. I don't know if it will happen, but that is what I am rooting for. $953M will get the job done.

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, setna said:

What was the multipler for Spiderman?

$403,706,375 / $114,844,116 = 3.51525519165

[druv10]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That's true too, but Snow White adjusted is still the milestone I want it to at least hit. Makes it Disney's highest ever adjusted and makes it the first film to crack the adjusted top ten since Titanic. 

It should do it. I've it finishing between 940-950M.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

I never said it'd hit $1B, I said it will get closer than what most people think. Currently, most people think it's gonna finish at 920. I say more like 950-960

Gotcha. Agreed, I think 950 is still possible, but highly doubt any higher. Again, just hoping for 939 now, though 953 would be even better, as @Walt Disney said. 

[setna]

3 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

I never said it'd hit $1B, I said it will get closer than what most people think. Currently, most people think it's gonna finish at 920. I say more like 950-960

 

For 950-960 will need weekly drops of 20 % maximum, i see it really difficult, but i´ll like it for sure...

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Ugh, Entertainment Weekly really needs to just stop if their writers aren't going to have a clue what they're talking about. There's a sidebar in the latest issue that suggests TFA could have a shot at $3b WW. 

$2b typo?

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

$2b typo?

Unfortunately no, because even the headline is "Is This the first $3 Billion Movie?" and they bring the number up a few other times. Admittedly they do say it may be "reaching for the stars, but who knows", but if they knew anything at all about box office they would know that we 100% know it won't by this point. 

[setna]

3 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

$403,706,375 / $114,844,116 = 3.51525519165

 

ok, thanks.

[terrestrial]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Unfortunately no, because even the headline is "Is This the first $3 Billion Movie?" and they bring the number up a few other times. Admittedly they do say it may be "reaching for the stars, but who knows", but if they knew anything at all about box office they would know that we 100% know it won't by this point. 

Wow, that's... off