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Tuesday (19 January) actuals | Revenent 3.14 | SW7 $2.38 | Ride Along 2 $2.278 | 13h $1.84 | DH 702k | Big Short 573k | chart p.4 | major release date changes p.1

By terrestrial, in Numbers and Data

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, nilephelan said:

There are a bunch of theaters who are going to keep TFA a lot longer than most think.  It will still be playing strong into April and think you will see relatively strong numbers keep coming in.  

 

No way it doesn't get to $950m and $1b still wouldn't surprise me, especially if they do something like get a strong bump in theaters by releasing 5 minutes of Rogue One with it.

 

IMO, it won't be strong so to speak in April.  What do you mean by strong?  April is about 9 weeks away.  Even if it only falls 30% from here on out, by the time March rolls around, it's under 5 mill a weekend.  If it were to go until April, you're looking at grosses of about 1.5 million.  IMO, 930 looks to be the a good bet.

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druv10 Global Phenomenon

druv10

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Baumer said:

 

IMO, it won't be strong so to speak in April.  What do you mean by strong?  April is about 9 weeks away.  Even if it only falls 30% from here on out, by the time March rolls around, it's under 5 mill a weekend.  If it were to go until April, you're looking at grosses of about 1.5 million.  IMO, 930 looks to be the a good bet.

I agree with you but I see it finishes around 940M. For anything more, it's going to need some sub 30% drops.

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Caladbolg Sleeper Hit

Caladbolg

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, nilephelan said:

There are a bunch of theaters who are going to keep TFA a lot longer than most think.  It will still be playing strong into April and think you will see relatively strong numbers keep coming in.  

 

No way it doesn't get to $950m and $1b still wouldn't surprise me, especially if they do something like get a strong bump in theaters by releasing 5 minutes of Rogue One with it.

 

I think April is too far away for that, especially when you have Batman V Superman in March, in April The Jungle Book,  and some other decent wide releases in those months that'll take screens. TFA should at that time be playing in dollar theaters, possible it could make a killing in that run. Maybe though if it is still playing strong it can hold out and get a double feature with TJB or CA3

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SWXII Box Office Gold

SWXII

Posted
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Caladbolg said:

 

I think April is too far away for that, especially when you have Batman V Superman in March, in April The Jungle Book,  and some other decent wide releases in those months that'll take screens. TFA should at that time be playing in dollar theaters, possible it could make a killing in that run. Maybe though if it is still playing strong it can hold out and get a double feature with TJB or CA3

 

Would the mouse really want TFA to compete against Jungle Book or Marvel? What I was thinking is that Disney might push it in areas where schools are out for spring break which vary widely. Also many have suggested a special promotion on May the 4th.

 

I also think someone's suggestion that a rerelease could happen right before Episode VIII could be considered.

 

Anyone know if a LOTR type extended version has ever been done after a film's release by producing or adding new scenes later? Would that ever be considered? I mean beyond edits that already exist.

 

Edited by SWXII
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TommyA10 Indie Sensation

TommyA10

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Caladbolg said:

 

I think April is too far away for that, especially when you have Batman V Superman in March, in April The Jungle Book,  and some other decent wide releases in those months that'll take screens. TFA should at that time be playing in dollar theaters, possible it could make a killing in that run. Maybe though if it is still playing strong it can hold out and get a double feature with TJB or CA3

I think it can do $1M+ weekends (or around 1M) till beginning-mid March. That'd be a pretty safe bet.

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SWXII Box Office Gold

SWXII

Posted
Posted

I have noticed a trend that TFA seems to have settled into a pattern of daily grossing about 60% of Avatar on a daily comparison. This would be profound if it holds for the total run. And it could make sense because TFA left the starting gate so quickly while Avatar built slowly. Only comparing these two films for trend purposes and not the reasons each have succeeded.

 

900 by the end of the month is looking more and more possible.

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

And has about a 7.7 multiplier on original release so, no way TFA beats that :P

 

That's why I didn't include anything before Spider-man.  No point.  It was a different era before DVD.  Once DVD hit the market, multipliers for OW record holders changed.

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