Tuesday (19 January) actuals | Revenent 3.14 | SW7 $2.38 | Ride Along 2 $2.278 | 13h $1.84 | DH 702k | Big Short 573k | chart p.4 | major release date changes p.1

[terrestrial]

http://deadline.com/2016/01/box-office-dirty-grandpa-ride-along-2-the-boy-the-5th-wave-chloe-grace-moretz-1201686420/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

Quote

Yesterday, Revenant was the No. 1 title collecting an estimated $3.1M, beating out Disney’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens in second ($2.37M) and Ride Along 2 in third ($2.3M).

 

.

Disney will now release STAR WARS: EPISODE VIII on December 15, 2017.

Disney will now release PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES on May 26, 2017.

Sony will now release SPIDER-MAN on July 7, 2017.

Sony will now release JUMANJI on July 28, 2017.

Edited January 20, 2016 by terrestrial

[terrestrial]

Ride Along 2 ...through yesterday = $43.3M

 

weekend prediction in that Deadline article

#1 Revenant = $15M-$16M

SW 7 = $12M-$13M

Dirty Grandpa which could go as high as $14M

The Boy and The 5th Wave which are each expected to bring in $9M-$11M. QED financed Dirty Grandpa with Lionsgate taking on the P&A. Showtimes starts Thursday at 7PM.

 

STX.Lakeshore’s The Boy won’t hold any Thursday previews... but still cheap with a reported cost before P&A of $10M split between Lakeshore and STX. Lakeshore is covering P&A and has foreign.

 

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi is projected to hold at -55% in its second weekend for $7.3M. Pic’s cume through last night stands at $21M. Lionsgate/Splash’s Norm of the North is also eyeing a similar decline for a second weekend of $3.1M. Norm‘s cume through five days sits at $9.76M.

 

repost of The Wrap's weekend estimates

weekend prediction of The Wrap

#numbers not meant as positions in a chart

Quote

#1 Revenant ...will take in around $18 million... dom will go over $100 million this weekend, and it should top $160 million worldwide...

#2 Dirty Grandpa ...Either just above or just below ~ $10 million...

#3 The 5th Wave ... see #2, OS in small markets $8.5m, budget $38m

#4 The Boy ... see #2, budget $10m

#5-#7 Ride Along 2, The Force Awakens... both could wind up around ~ $15 million.

13 Hours shouldn’t be far behind those two

 

Quote

“The Boy” will be in roughly 2,600 theaters, while “The 5th Wave” and “Dirty Grandpa” will be in around 2,800

https://www.thewrap.com/revenant-5th-wave-boy-dirty-grandpa-ride-along-2-star-wars-preview-box-office/

 

 

Edited January 20, 2016 by terrestrial

[MonstersandRoy]

64% drop for TFA from the holiday monday. Though only dropped 38% from last Tuesday. Comparatively it dropped 51% the previous Tuesday (Jan12th) to Tuesday (Jan5th). Not sure if that is good sign for it's late legs or not.

Edited January 20, 2016 by MonstersandRoy

[Daxtreme]

Pretty much an expected drop, no surprises there. Damn good drop for The Revenant.

 

Also, I am pretty sure that Star Wars won't drop 55% the next week-end. We shall see.

[terrestrial]

54 minutes ago, MonstersandRoy said:

64% drop for TFA from the holiday monday. ....

Beside it was a bit deeper at part of the 4-day weekend (under times 3), for SW7 with that estimate the TTT / LotR 2 times 3 rule is again in place = $792,000*3.

TTT Tuesday to Tuesday drop was -35%, MLK Monday to Tuesday -64%. But less cheap Tuesday's... too

I do not expect it to hold that pattern (maybe sporadic happening for a short while), but to me that is still simply mind-blowing, especially as at that time the revenues / legs were more spread out than nowadays.

LotR 2... times 3 

edit: first weekday not that much change to see anyway, so imagine the additional estimated ammount. I have exchanged Hobbit against The Two Towers, that SW 7 still pulls after already making so much...

Day	Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens	Avatar	Jurassic World	The Avengers	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Day: 0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Day: 1	$119.119.282	$26.752.099	$81.953.950	$80.813.985	$34.450.834	$26.159.972
Day: 2	$187.413.486	$52.281.135	$151.598.780	$150.371.975	$51.470.821	$40.038.684
Day: 3	$247.966.675	$77.025.481	$208.806.270	$207.438.708	$73.282.370	$59.263.024
Day: 4	$288.076.417	$93.411.301	$234.151.090	$226.337.707	$100.774.423	$82.015.081
Day: 5	$325.438.146	$109.497.762	$258.493.605	$244.014.897	$124.100.534	$102.046.212
Day: 6	$363.460.329	$125.943.053	$278.389.075	$257.627.807	$137.663.742	$115.556.154
Day: 7	$390.856.054	$137.094.051	$296.211.655	$270.019.373	$150.139.984	$123.346.204
Day: 8	$440.181.717	$160.189.097	$325.326.090	$299.242.890	$157.684.384	$135.727.511
Day: 9	$496.913.249	$188.463.503	$364.438.555	$342.148.409	$171.670.604	$151.182.682
Day: 10	$540.058.914	$212.711.184	$402.800.095	$373.071.647	$190.822.800	$168.056.221
Day: 11	$571.420.943	$232.129.323	$414.366.320	$380.995.436	$208.072.067	$185.283.282
Day: 12	$600.949.526	$250.419.951	$427.496.780	$389.473.290	$222.268.708	$200.058.231
Day: 13	$629.034.583	$268.886.074	$436.936.980	$395.813.047	$232.759.000	$210.153.082
Day: 14	$651.967.269	$283.624.210	$445.840.805	$402.021.415	$241.937.000	$218.595.905
Day: 15	$686.361.421	$308.898.218	$460.533.690	$417.257.461	$249.400.000	$229.636.178
Day: 16	$720.729.671	$334.733.769	$483.013.980	$440.844.530	$262.230.583	$236.014.322
Day: 17	$742.208.942	$352.114.898	$500.373.420	$457.665.517	$272.832.713	$243.590.544
Day: 18	$750.230.824	$360.209.452	$506.899.800	$463.353.451	$283.395.934	$254.290.037
Day: 19	$758.198.252	$367.536.685	$514.374.155	$468.271.215	$290.410.961	$261.031.601
Day: 20	$764.408.684	$374.445.852	$520.362.305	$472.239.621	$292.793.000	$263.165.066
Day: 21	$770.381.043	$380.540.297	$527.300.955	$476.684.788	$294.972.000	$265.320.641
Day: 22	$781.125.423	$393.820.950	$539.128.560	$486.349.111	$296.894.000	$267.068.847
Day: 23	$800.329.495	$415.090.487	$547.667.605	$500.415.495	$298.111.838	$268.666.211
Day: 24	$812.734.828	$430.846.514	$556.542.980	$513.371.659	$301.700.000	$272.561.063
Day: 25	$815.843.529	$435.957.707	$560.692.030	$523.907.202	$308.228.208	$279.199.045
Day: 26	$819.687.937	$441.024.441	$565.531.445	$527.173.955	$312.320.936	$283.421.517
Day: 27	$822.802.874	$445.768.203	$569.287.130	$529.688.996	$313.497.000	$284.492.000
Day: 28	$825.932.841	$450.467.005	$572.538.320	$532.463.980	$314.716.000	$285.699.000
Day: 29	$832.261.795	$460.861.269	$577.957.895	$538.105.622	$315.773.000	$286.695.000
Day: 30	$843.290.309	$478.115.377	$585.390.455	$547.123.535	$316.592.632	$289.847.664
Day: 31	$852.274.958	$493.252.617	$590.689.595	$552.950.398	$318.968.891	$290.292.649
Day: 32	$858.953.106	$504.868.451	$592.840.220	$554.992.773	$323.583.085	$294.814.282
Day: 33		$509.059.398	$595.627.430	$557.214.486	$326.812.102	$300.122.052
Day: 34		$512.852.205	$597.829.670	$559.076.546	$329.040.393	$300.122.052
Day: 35		$516.797.418	$599.773.835	$561.050.725	$329.802.000	$300.914.000
Day: 36		$525.825.912	$603.031.100	$564.387.649	$330.401.000	$301.557.000
Day: 37		$542.151.962	$607.940.375	$568.934.514	$331.032.242	$302.209.601
Day: 38		$551.741.499	$611.228.810	$572.300.463	$332.500.000	$303.924.000
Day: 39		$554.981.691	$612.601.315	$573.685.968	$335.700.055	$307.371.000
Day: 40		$558.179.737	$614.331.250	$575.233.764	$337.817.998	$308.821.306
Day: 41		$561.317.325	$615.640.390	$576.583.182	$338.354.000	$309.365.000
Day: 42		$564.472.387	$616.902.775	$577.888.904	$338.910.000	$309.931.000
Day: 43		$571.911.813	$618.965.875	$580.095.059	$339.500.000	$310.445.000
Day: 44		$585.695.694	$621.941.500	$583.388.044	$340.021.012	$310.938.073
Day: 45		$595.752.416	$624.083.950	$586.794.371	$341.400.000	$312.157.000
Day: 46		$598.453.037	$625.009.700	$587.927.710	$344.131.995	$314.497.684
Day: 47		$601.141.551	$626.094.150	$589.091.616	$345.331.815	$316.026.494
Day: 48		$603.789.348	$626.920.500	$590.193.264	$345.735.000	$316.346.000
Day: 49		$606.493.323	$627.699.630	$591.247.781	$346.151.000	$316.702.000
Day: 50		$612.653.642	$628.770.350	$593.460.187	$346.532.000	$317.022.000
Day: 51		$624.193.440	$630.386.910	$596.501.976	$346.839.672	$317.340.310
Day: 52		$629.344.204	$631.601.030	$598.425.442	$347.700.000	$318.148.497
Day: 53		$631.595.771	$632.193.750	$599.387.534	$349.762.348	$319.764.713
Day: 54		$633.621.035	$632.834.270	$600.377.080	$351.133.343	$320.857.049
Day: 55		$635.470.349	$633.318.770	$601.215.735	$351.441.343	$321.090.000
Day: 56		$637.605.653	$633.726.780	$602.083.073	$351.727.000	$321.351.000
Day: 57		$642.146.324	$634.280.685	$603.388.594	$351.994.000	$321.603.000
Day: 58		$651.346.762	$635.114.340	$605.205.241	$352.277.575	$322.374.200
Day: 59		$661.217.278	$635.673.840	$606.504.744	$353.100.000	$322.653.345
Day: 60		$666.388.502	$635.936.805	$607.219.521	$355.035.095	$323.961.909
Day: 61		$668.224.829	$636.272.505	$607.764.276	$356.464.575	$325.446.438
Day: 62		$669.935.879	$636.513.090	$608.482.552	$357.367.856	$325.446.438
Day: 63		$671.721.154	$636.731.640	$608.959.760	$357.702.000	$325.741.000
Day: 64		$675.615.172	$637.067.430	$609.640.578	$358.001.000	$325.988.000
Day: 65		$683.071.751	$637.613.550	$610.558.801	$358.268.479	$326.231.250
Day: 66		$687.962.011	$637.971.480	$611.127.884	$358.900.000	$326.719.985
Day: 67		$689.237.048	$638.126.505	$611.389.326	$360.222.047	$327.611.676
Day: 68		$690.499.726	$638.322.290	$611.701.097	$361.118.934	$328.156.417
Day: 69		$691.701.910	$638.473.570	$611.973.433	$361.326.000	$328.285.425
Day: 70		$692.904.794	$638.620.980	$612.261.732	$361.541.000	$328.435.381
Day: 71		$695.981.544	$638.887.990	$612.657.166	$361.742.000	$328.574.452
Day: 72		$702.621.374	$639.307.200	$613.244.349	$361.940.947	$328.720.136
Day: 73		$706.560.068	$639.568.530	$613.660.486	$362.400.000	$329.100.557
Day: 74		$707.818.745	$639.663.325	$613.849.210	$363.400.000	$329.842.711
Day: 75		$709.304.322	$639.778.350	$614.070.615	$364.115.612	$330.338.275
Day: 76		$710.842.764	$639.872.800	$614.265.453	$364.392.000
Day: 77		$712.489.342	$639.967.785	$614.438.014	$364.670.000
Day: 78		$714.463.378	$640.760.745	$614.628.102	$364.913.000
Day: 79		$718.126.396	$642.136.035	$614.883.015	$365.172.348	$330.847.924
Day: 80		$720.607.444	$642.978.555	$615.058.425	$366.000.000
Day: 81		$721.425.412	$643.269.755	$615.156.789	$367.326.659
Day: 82		$722.207.106	$643.579.580	$615.280.156	$368.210.170	$332.075.527
Day: 83		$722.954.237	$643.839.335	$615.373.694	$368.432.000
Day: 84		$723.744.022	$644.043.640	$615.483.851	$368.661.000
Day: 85		$725.429.879	$644.632.765		$368.873.000
Day: 86		$728.329.714	$645.669.625		$369.126.293	$332.609.244
Day: 87		$730.270.443	$646.737.905	$615.996.809	$369.600.000
Day: 88		$730.942.185	$647.374.160		$370.521.028
Day: 89		$731.621.183	$647.516.055		$371.147.794	$333.623.857
Day: 90		$732.229.805	$647.626.080		$371.359.000
Day: 91		$732.880.952	$647.728.195	$616.351.422	$371.590.000
Day: 92		$733.938.158	$648.026.290		$371.790.000
Day: 93		$735.684.163	$648.622.480		$372.008.809	$334.022.318
Day: 94		$736.907.957	$648.908.885	$616.768.487	$372.400.000
Day: 95		$737.266.471	$648.990.715		$372.968.676
Day: 96		$737.627.370	$649.084.725		$373.359.557	$334.790.872
Day: 97		$737.976.702	$649.160.275		$373.481.000
Day: 98		$738.393.054	$649.224.035	$616.768.487	$373.603.000
Day: 99		$738.919.556	$649.397.365		$373.721.000
Day: 100		$739.798.846	$649.709.675		$373.850.755	$335.176.527
Day: 101		$740.440.529	$649.860.515	$617.039.310
Day: 102		$740.684.275	$649.905.695
Day: 103		$740.916.066	$649.958.405		$374.556.572	$335.800.124
Day: 104		$741.140.003	$650.010.785
Day: 105		$741.352.439	$650.052.290	$617.446.423
Day: 106		$741.699.502	$650.163.170
Day: 107		$742.076.465	$650.359.290		$374.830.647	$336.021.026
Day: 108		$742.332.678	$650.442.740	$617.595.391
Day: 109		$742.497.942	$650.465.295
Day: 110		$742.605.267	$650.493.055		$375.204.550	$336.500.653
Day: 111		$742.721.098	$650.518.930
Day: 112		$742.844.322	$650.539.750	$617.685.111
Day: 113		$743.083.175	$650.621.115
Day: 114		$743.448.904	$650.760.850		$375.378.000	$336.673.235
Day: 115		$743.688.973	$650.831.970	$617.800.446
Day: 116		$743.767.458	$650.852.290
Day: 117		$743.853.911	$650.875.150		$375.667.233	$337.013.432
Day: 118		$743.935.257	$650.896.740
Day: 119		$744.020.453	$650.917.060	$617.849.893
Day: 120		$744.275.947	$650.976.600	$618.233.009
Day: 121		$744.750.989	$651.072.535	$618.921.193	$375.831.230	$337.174.762
Day: 122		$745.023.267	$651.128.985	$619.760.594
Day: 123		$745.115.019	$651.157.740	$620.323.837
Day: 124		$745.219.191	$651.175.845		$376.058.551	$337.526.600
Day: 125		$745.330.634	$651.193.850

(put in spoiler tags, as it seems to bleed out)

Spoiler

Curious to see when it will really, finally break pattern, after all the market should be filled already since a long time, a few fresh releases incl even - for January - a kind of blockbuster will be logically also be of interest...

Not sure if I'd be still so fascinated without the similarity Fake recognised then....

That's TTT's next few/some days.... the matching Tuesday then was the 21. January

 

Spoiler

Tue	Jan. 21, 2003	2	$776,632	-65.2%	-35.0%	3,110	$250	$300,898,684	35
Wed	Jan. 22, 2003	3	$633,608	-18.4%	-35.4%	3,110	$204	$301,532,292	36
Thu	Jan. 23, 2003	3	$677,309	+6.9%	-31.7%	3,110	$218	$302,209,601	37
Fri	Jan. 24, 2003	8	$1,749,594	+158.3%	-34.3%	2,666	$656	$303,959,195	38
Sat	Jan. 25, 2003	6	$3,447,376	+97.0%	-23.8%	2,666	$1,293	$307,406,571	39
Sun	Jan. 26, 2003	4	$1,414,735	-59.0%	-54.0%	2,666	$531	$308,821,306	40
Mon	Jan. 27, 2003	4	$536,094	-62.1%	-76.0%	2,666	$201	$309,357,400	41
Tue	Jan. 28, 2003	4	$558,606	+4.2%	-28.1%	2,666	$210	$309,916,006	42
Wed	Jan. 29, 2003	5	$491,208	-12.1%	-22.5%	2,666	$184	$310,407,214	43
Thu	Jan. 30, 2003	4	$530,859	+8.1%	-21.6%	2,666	$199	$310,938,073	44

Edited January 20, 2016 by terrestrial

[WrathOfHan]

The Revenant will be the only movie over 20M this weekend.

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Revenant will be the only movie over 20M this weekend.

You underestimate the power of Zac Efron and Chloe Grace Moretz.

 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

You underestimate the power of Zac Efron and Chloe Grace Moretz.

 

You're right, Zac is so powerful he had one of the worst DOM openings of all time  

Edited January 20, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[IronJimbo]

[Infernus]

Great drop for Revenant! I can't wait to see what  Leo's Oscar win does to its box office.

[DAJK]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Im not sure how to read this or if I'm doing it correctly. On their 21'st days, both Avatar and TFA made o/u 6M not over 20...

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Im not sure how to read this or if I'm doing it correctly. On their 21'st days, both Avatar and TFA made o/u 6M not over 20...

The graph starts at day 21!

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

The graph starts at day 21!

Exactly, didn't both movies do o/u 6M then? Or is this WW?

 

SW did 5.9 DOM and Avatar did 6.1. Maybe it is a WW graph.

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Exactly, didn't both movies do o/u 6M then? Or is this WW?

 

SW did 5.9 DOM and Avatar did 6.1. Maybe it is a WW graph.

 

It's domestic and the graph shows those values on the 21st day.

 

Avatar only make >20m on day 23.

 

You're reading X and Y the wrong way round!

Edited January 20, 2016 by IronJimbo

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Exactly, didn't both movies do o/u 6M then? Or is this WW?

 

SW did 5.9 DOM and Avatar did 6.1. Maybe it is a WW graph.

They both start at 6m, right on the Y-axis.

Edited January 20, 2016 by Jayhawk

[DAJK]

Just now, Jayhawk said:

They both start at 6m, right on the Y-axis.

OHHHHHH CRAP I GET IT NOW  I WAS READING IT 1 DAY AHEAD.

 

My bad, thanks for the explanation guys

[langer]

30 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Beside it was a bit deeper at part of the 4-day weekend (under times 3), for SW7 with that estimate the TTT / LotR 2 times 3 rule is again in place

$792,000*3.

TTT Tuesday to Tuesday drop was -35%, MLK Monday to Tuesday -64%. But less cheap Tuesday's... too

 

I do not expect it to hold that pattern (maybe sporadic happening for a short while), but to me that is still simply mind-blowing, especially as at that time the revenues / legs were more spread out than nowadays.

LotR 2... times 3 

 

If you look at the last 2 weekends, TFA was at 2,87X over TTT (weekend of 8-10 jan 2016 compared to 10-12 jan 2003) and 2,64X (weekend of 15-18 Jan 2016 vs 17-20 Jan 2003).  This is a decreasing trend that's bound to keep going especially since TTT  didn't drop over 38% for the next 8 weekends following the MLK weekend.  TTT grossed 39M more after MLK and I expect TFA to gross between 88M (2,25X) and 94M (2,4X) to end up very close to 950M. 

[Noodlebug]

These numbers are boring. March needs to come.

[terrestrial]

Scott Mendelson ‏@ScottMendelson

Box Office: 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' Tops $860M, Crosses $100M In China @Forbes http://onforb.es/1ZBGdTC

Quote

And with that said, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned around $2.37 million at the domestic box office on Tuesday, dropping 39% from last Tuesday and bringing its cume up to $861m in America after a whole 33 days of domestic play. That also means it’s over $100m more than the previous record-high $760.5m gross for James Cameron’s Avatar from back in 2009/2010. And of course Star Wars passed that film’s “adjusted for inflation” gross ($846m) over the weekend.

and more to read there

[kesleyk]

45 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Would love to see this graph include the first three weeks of all three of those movies.