Weekend Estimates (Page 28): Kung Fu Panda 3 - 41M, The Finest Hours 0- 10.3M, The Revenant - 12.4M...Sunday holds better than expected.....SW over 11 mill and KFP3 over 41 pg 34

[kayumanggi]

2016 will be a good year.

[SWXII]

11 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

 

What do you mean by banner year & what recession are you referring to?

 

I think this year will break box office records. And I refer you to CNBC for economic data.

 

Bad economic times send people to the cinema for escapism. This year provides plenty of great escapism.

Edited January 30, 2016 by SWXII

[GiantCALBears]

13 minutes ago, SWXII said:

 

I think this year will break box office records. And I refer you to CNBC for economic data.

 

Bad economic times send people to the cinema for escapism. This year provides plenty of great escapism.

 

The data says we maybe in a manufacturing & energy recession domestically but we are NOT in an overall recession ESP in areas that really matter for the BO such as the consumer.

[GiantCALBears]

21 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

2016 will be a good year.

It could be a good year unadjusted, in terms of attendence ESP on a longer timeframe (this year adding to that) the industry will continue to show declines. It's a secular issue as has been discussed on here plenty.

Edited January 30, 2016 by GiantCALBears

[WrathOfHan]

In terms of the Top 10:

 

1. Rogue One (530M)<TFA (920M?)

2. Finding Dory (460M)<JW (652M)

3. BVS (440M)<AOU (459M)

4. Civil War (380M)>IO (356M)

5. Suicide Squad (340M)<Furious 7 (353M)

6. Zootopia (310M)<Minions (336M)

7. Independence Day (300M)>Mockingjay (280M)

8. Fantastic Beasts (290M)>The Martian (227M)

9. Pets (275M)>Cinderella (201M)

10. Bourne (255M)>Spectre (199M)

 

 

[Stringer Bell Theory]

This year won't be record breaking, but it'll be bigger than 2014. 2017 is the year with record breaking potential.

[kayumanggi]

4 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

It could be a good year unadjusted, in terms of attendence ESP on a longer timeframe the industry will continue to show declines. It's a secular issue as has been discussed on here plenty.

 

Among recent years, 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2015 saw tickets sold increases. I'm not saying 2016 will follow but I don't think the word "continue" is the right term to use.

[GiantCALBears]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

In terms of the Top 10:

 

1. Rogue One (530M)<TFA (920M?)

2. Finding Dory (460M)<JW (652M)

3. BVS (440M)<AOU (459M)

4. Civil War (380M)>IO (356M)

5. Suicide Squad (340M)<Furious 7 (353M)

6. Zootopia (310M)<Minions (336M)

7. Independence Day (300M)>Mockingjay (280M)

8. Fantastic Beasts (290M)>The Martian (227M)

9. Pets (275M)>Cinderella (201M)

10. Bourne (255M)>Spectre (199M)

 

 

5,6,7,9,10 all seem optimistic to me  but good list. Usually a surprise that will sneak in there too.

[CJohn]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

In terms of the Top 10:

 

1. Rogue One (530M)<TFA (920M?)

2. Finding Dory (460M)<JW (652M)

3. BVS (440M)<AOU (459M)

4. Civil War (380M)>IO (356M)

5. Suicide Squad (340M)<Furious 7 (353M)

6. Zootopia (310M)<Minions (336M)

7. Independence Day (300M)>Mockingjay (280M)

8. Fantastic Beasts (290M)>The Martian (227M)

9. Pets (275M)>Cinderella (201M)

10. Bourne (255M)>Spectre (199M)

 

 

Your Rogue One, Finding Dory, Suicide Squad, Zootopia, ID2, Fantastic Beasts and Bourne numbers are IN-FUCKING-SANE.

[GiantCALBears]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Among recent years, 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2015 saw tickets sold increases. I'm not saying 2016 will follow but I don't think the word "continue" is the right term to use.

The overall trend this century is without a doubt higher ticket prices (even counting in inflation) & lower attendence kay, clearly you can see that. It's not going to decline year over year every time, wouldn't be realistic since the schedules differ so much. 

[Water Bottle]

1 hour ago, GiantCALBears said:

Funny thing is I could see all of those movies falling short of expectations, every single one. Doesn't mean it won't be better than 2014 but it could be a major relative disappointment to some.

 

I could also see all of those movies exceeding expectations. Chances are some of them will fall short and some of them won't. It's extremely unlikely every one of them falls short of expectations.

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

The overall trend this century is without a doubt higher ticket prices (even counting in inflation) & lower attendence kay, clearly you can see that. It's not going to decline year over year every time, wouldn't be realistic since the schedules differ so much. 

 

I know. That's why I said "continue" wasn't the right term.

[TLK]

Why are people so high on Fantastic Beasts ? Hobbit movies dropped big from LOTR and in that case Hobbit was a very well-known property.  There is no reason why people should expect FB to make more than $250 million DOM. Great if it makes more but expectations have to be reasonable.

[Ethan Hunt]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Your Rogue One, Finding Dory, Suicide Squad, Zootopia, ID2, Fantastic Beasts and Bourne numbers are IN-FUCKING-SANE.

I was thinking his Dory number was too small

 

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, TLK said:

Why are people so high on Fantastic Beasts ? Hobbit movies dropped big from LOTR and in that case Hobbit was a very well-known property.  There is no reason why people should expect FB to make more than $250 million DOM. Great if it makes more but expectations have to be reasonable.

 

The Hobbit movies had a mixed audience reception. If the movies had gotten universal praise like LOTR generally did, they would have done a lot better. But when the reaction is "meh" then you generally do see a drop-off.

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Your Rogue One, Finding Dory, Suicide Squad, Zootopia, ID2, Fantastic Beasts and Bourne numbers are IN-FUCKING-SANE.

Rogue One is a real unknown, anything is possible.

Dory seems pretty reasonable.

My Suicide Squad prediction is pretty sane compared to some others on here

Zootopia is my no guts no glory prediction this year. I've explained countless times why I think it'll be gigantic.

ID2 and FB seem pretty reasonable.

Bourne is slightly higher than Supremacy adjusted; if it's on the level of Ultimatum that number is definitely achievable. 

[GiantCALBears]

5 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

I could also see all of those movies exceeding expectations. Chances are some of them will fall short and some of them won't. It's extremely unlikely every one of them falls short of expectations.

I can't see that happening. There are some high consensus opinions on the franchise films you mentioned. Don't think there is a lot of room compared to the levels of outperformance we saw in last year.

Edited January 30, 2016 by GiantCALBears

[Water Bottle]

3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

I can't see that happening. There are some high consensus opinions on the franchise films you mentioned. Don't think there is a lot of room for the levels of outperformance we saw in 2015.

 

Age of Ultron disappointed (although it was still a huge hit and a huge success and it's silly to think it was a disappointment). So did Mockingjay: Part II. Yes, there was overperformance in 2015. There was also underperformance. The same will be true in 2016. 

[EmpireCity]

Lol.  Suicide Squad is not making $340m domestic.  It will be lucky to make $200m domestic.  

[TLK]

4 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

The Hobbit movies had a mixed audience reception. If the movies had gotten universal praise like LOTR generally did, they would have done a lot better. But when the reaction is "meh" then you generally do see a drop-off.

 

Harry Potter movies have always been more fan-driven than LOTR movies. WOM is definitely a factor but even assuming that FB gets WOM similar to a good HP movie, I am not sure is it has a potential beyond $250 million. The teaser trailer looked like a scene from the HP movie with Redmayne in the lead instead of the three familiar characters.