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BOT User Tracking 2/5-7 Choice, Hail Caesar, Pride & Zombies

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You know, this weekend confuses me. The Choice feels like its been dumped, but Hail, Caesar feels like someone at least *tried* to make it a thing. Pride & Zombies I'm still unsure what to make of it. I feel like I should see it, but I suspect its some kind of misplaced sense of guilt over having not paid more attention in high school English. Hard to come up with much of a theme in this week's new releases, so I'll just call them "Place-holders until SkullpoopL arrives next week".


Please provide your 2/5-7 Opening Weekend, 


The Choice

Hail, Caesar

Pride and Prejudice and Zombies


Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

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Couple weak weeks in a row, but the key to good predicting is to keep a short memory. KFP3 predict? What KFP3 predict? On we go to The Choice, Hail, Caesar and PPZ. We're a little optimistic on The Choice and Hail, Caesar and a little pessimistic on PPZ but not wildly so, so we'll see how that works out. We're also quite confident on our PPZ predict relative to its expected OW so hopefully we're right. 


Also, ScreenRant.com has failed me for the last time and is now removed from the list. ShowBuzzDaily.com, however, has been reliable for the last few weeks so the spot is formally being transferred between the two.


As usual, I went through the various predicts (14 for The Choice, 15 for the other two, almost just like the last two weeks, but not quite) and here's what we ended up with:


The Choice

Mean: 9.6M

Median: 9.0M

StnDev: 3.35M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 34.90%

High: 16.4M

Low: 5.2M


BO.com 7M

Deadline 9M   

ShowBuzzDaily 7.5

Variety 8M



Hail, Caesar

Mean: 13.5M

Median: 13.2M

StnDev: 3.15M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.23%

High: 21M

Low: 7.3M


BO.com 12.3M

Deadline 10M   

ShowBuzzDaily 12.5M

Variety 10M


Pride and Prejudice and Zombies

Mean: 9.6M

Median: 9.7M

StnDev: 1.8M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 18.67%

High: 12.6M

Low: 6.8M


BO.com 11M

Deadline 12M   

ShowBuzzDaily 11M

Variety 11M

Edited by Wrath
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Not a bad week. Our worst miss was the one where we had the best overall predict and the other two at least weren't terrible.


The Choice

Prediction: 9.6M +/- 3.6M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 6.0M (off by 3.6M, so 1.07 stndev)

Eh, not terrible. Sadly we were the worst predict as most folks nailed it, but in a vacuum we were ok. CJohn just *barely* squeezes out the top spot at 6.6M, narrowly beating BourneFan#1 who predicted 5.4 (unrounded actual was 6.05M).


Hail, Caesar!

Prediction: 13.5M +/- 3.15M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 11.4M (off by 2.1M, so 0.68 stndev)

Not a bad predict. Not great, but not bad either. Sadly, we were the worst predict, but just by a hair over a multiple other folks. Best predict was CJohn, and this time it wasn't particularly close, at 11.2M.


Pride and Prejudice and Zombies

Prediction: 9.6M +/- 1.80M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 5.3M (off by 4.3M, so 2.41 stndev)

Ugh, argh. A really terrible predict. So naturally it was by far the best predict of the lot. Yes, really. BO.com thought it would come in at 12M. We failed much less hard than everyone else, so I'm call it a win. Best predict was our lowest predict at 6.8 by CJohn, giving him a sweep of the week. Nicely done.

Edited by Wrath
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