Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[ZeeSoh]

23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Aquaman (5 days out)

Midnight - 1.09m

OD - 6.56m (+28.6%) (49851 shows)

Sat - 4.66m

Sun - 3.60m

 

Aquaman (4 days out)

Midnight - 1.27m

OD - 8.16m (+24.39%) (55002 shows)

Sat - 5.66m

Sun - 4.23m

 

Another relatively small increase today. Still not sure if presales have normalized or not yet. Regardless below are the OD presales of some other movies 4 days out.

 

Venom - 13.1 (69,864 shows)

Black Panther - 10.19 (37,941 shows)

Spiderman - 8.85m

Ant Man 2 - 8.43m (50,320 shows)

Justice League - 3.51m (37,746 shows)

Thor Ragnarok - 2.94m

 

Aquaman has had fairly similar increase compared to Venom the past couple of days. If it continues to follow Venom's increases, it will get to 37m in the end which is what Spiderman Homecoming ended up with. Typical OW multi will then get it to about $65m OW. Aquaman's show count is also quite far behind Venom and is unlikely to get as high as Venom did in the end. 

 

[bangbingchan]

7 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Aquaman (4 days out)

Midnight - 1.27m

OD - 8.16m (+24.39%) (55002 shows)

Sat - 5.66m

Sun - 4.23m

 

Another relatively small increase today. Still not sure if presales have normalized or not yet. Regardless below are the OD presales of some other movies 4 days out.

 

Venom - 13.1 (69,864 shows)

Black Panther - 10.19 (37,941 shows)

Spiderman - 8.85m

Ant Man 2 - 8.43m (50,320 shows)

Justice League - 3.51m (37,746 shows)

Thor Ragnarok - 2.94m

 

Aquaman has had fairly similar increase compared to Venom the past couple of days. If it continues to follow Venom's increases, it will get to 37m in the end which is what Spiderman Homecoming ended up with. Typical OW multi will then get it to about $65m OW. Aquaman's show count is also quite far behind Venom and is unlikely to get as high as Venom did in the end. 

 

No one expect Venom level presale except Oliver says that.Aquaman presale is more Similar to Antman and SpiderMan

[Manny G]

Is  there any way to know if the presales have normalized or no? And if they haven’t these numbers are bound to be bigger right?

[ZeeSoh]

5 hours ago, bangbingchan said:

No one expect Venom level presale except Oliver says that.Aquaman presale is more Similar to Antman and SpiderMan

Maybe you missed the part where I also listed the presales of the other SH movies as well including Thor and JL which were far lower. 

 

If you are talking about the part where I compared the number of shows, then that makes complete sense. Screen numbers and hence show counts have steadily increased over time so it makes sense to use the latest movie to compare show counts rather than a movie from a year back. 

[Gavin Feng]

CGV started to release those locked seats, and Maoyan box office system is controlling their numbers from decreasing.

[Manny G]

5 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

CGV started to release those locked seats, and Maoyan box office system is controlling their numbers from decreasing.

Controlling who’s number? I really don’t get the whole situation can we have short recap?

[Premium George]

12 minutes ago, Manny G said:

Controlling who’s number? I really don’t get the whole situation can we have short recap?

CGV, a big theater chain in china, locked many seats for aquaman which were shown as sold on maoyan. Now CGV has released those seats but maoyan is still showing previous incorrect numbers.

I hope that's the correct situation.

Edited December 3, 2018 by Premium George

[DMan7]

According to this it looks like it's heading towards a 52M OW? I've checked Fri,Sat,Sun

 

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/dashboard?date=2018-12-07&movieId=249342

[Gavin Feng]

7 minutes ago, Manny G said:

Controlling who’s number? I really don’t get the whole situation can we have short recap?

Let's suppose:

 

5 days before opening, A movie has 10M on OD pre-sale. Maoyan BO system shows 10M for OD number

 

4 days before opening, A movie has 12M on OD pre-sale, while B Cinemas locked it's seats which are worth 5M for unclear reason. Those tickets are not really sold out but Maoyan BO system also count it according to data+formula. So it shows 17M for OD number, including 5M not exist yet.

 

3 days before opening, A movie has 15M on OD pre-sale, but B Cinemas release some seats that are worth 4M. And Maoyan BO system should have showed 16M for OD number, including unreleased 1M. But the problem is, Maoyan staffs don't allow this kind of decreasing situation to happen. So they adjust the OD number as 18M by themselves instead of data+formula, for making A movie look like it doesn't have any trouble from those stupid things that B Cinemas have done.

 

2 days before opening, A movie has 25M on OD pre-sale, and B Cinemas has released those unreleased 1M. Then Maoyan BO system also adjust it's numbers to be normal.

 

real number: 10M→12M→15M→25M

real+locked: 10M→17M→16M→25M

Maoyan BO: 10M→17M→18M→25M

 

At this point, we are in phase 3. CGV keep released those things, and Maoyan control it's numbers for avoiding unnecessary misunderstanding till everything is back to normal.

[Stewart]

3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Let's suppose:

 

5 days before opening, A movie has 10M on OD pre-sale. Maoyan BO system shows 10M for OD number

 

4 days before opening, A movie has 12M on OD pre-sale, while B Cinemas locked it's seats which are worth 5M for unclear reason. Those tickets are not really sold out but Maoyan BO system also count it according to data+formula. So it shows 17M for OD number, including 5M not exist yet.

 

3 days before opening, A movie has 15M on OD pre-sale, but B Cinemas release some seats that are worth 4M. And Maoyan BO system should have showed 16M for OD number, including unreleased 1M. But the problem is, Maoyan staffs don't allow this kind of decreasing situation to happen. So they adjust the OD number as 18M by themselves instead of data+formula, for making A movie look like it doesn't have any trouble from those stupid things that B Cinemas have done.

 

2 days before opening, A movie has 25M on OD pre-sale, and B Cinemas has released those unreleased 1M. Then Maoyan BO system also adjust it's numbers to be normal.

 

real number: 10M→12M→15M→25M

real+locked: 10M→17M→16M→25M

Maoyan BO: 10M→17M→18M→25M

 

At this point, we are in phase 3. CGV keep released those things, and Maoyan control it's numbers for avoiding unnecessary misunderstanding till everything is back to normal.

A truly fantastic explanation. Thanks Gavin 👍

[Manny G]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

Let's suppose:

 

5 days before opening, A movie has 10M on OD pre-sale. Maoyan BO system shows 10M for OD number

 

4 days before opening, A movie has 12M on OD pre-sale, while B Cinemas locked it's seats which are worth 5M for unclear reason. Those tickets are not really sold out but Maoyan BO system also count it according to data+formula. So it shows 17M for OD number, including 5M not exist yet.

 

3 days before opening, A movie has 15M on OD pre-sale, but B Cinemas release some seats that are worth 4M. And Maoyan BO system should have showed 16M for OD number, including unreleased 1M. But the problem is, Maoyan staffs don't allow this kind of decreasing situation to happen. So they adjust the OD number as 18M by themselves instead of data+formula, for making A movie look like it doesn't have any trouble from those stupid things that B Cinemas have done.

 

2 days before opening, A movie has 25M on OD pre-sale, and B Cinemas has released those unreleased 1M. Then Maoyan BO system also adjust it's numbers to be normal.

 

real number: 10M→12M→15M→25M

real+locked: 10M→17M→16M→25M

Maoyan BO: 10M→17M→18M→25M

 

At this point, we are in phase 3. CGV keep released those things, and Maoyan control it's numbers for avoiding unnecessary misunderstanding till everything is back to normal.

Thanks👍🏾👍🏾

[ZeeSoh]

On 12/2/2018 at 9:42 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Aquaman (4 days out)

Midnight - 1.27m

OD - 8.16m (+24.39%) (55002 shows)

Sat - 5.66m

Sun - 4.23m

 

Aquaman (3 days out)

Midnight - 1.53m

OD - 10.00m (+22.55%) (66957 shows)

Sat - 6.67m

Sun - 4.58m

 

Very small increase for today, perhaps a sign that the inflated numbers are coming back to normal. This monday  increase is lower than almost all SH movies I have tracked with the exception of IW (but that was already at 90m OD presales at this point and had been running for nearly 20 days!)

 

The Sat numbers also could be weird IMO. They are jumping nearly exactly 1m everyday for the past 2/3 days now. The jumps are huge considering the OD jumps. The Sat numbers as a percentage of OD presales are also very high. I have not seen such inflated Sat numbers except in IW and JL.

 

Show counts are decent and on par with recent movies like Ant Man 2 and MI6 but lags behind Venom. It's likely Aquaman wont have as many shows as Venom did during its OW.

 

The weird numbers makes predicting very hard and unreliable. At this point I would say an OW in the 60-65m range but without any surety.

Edited December 3, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[efialtes76]

37 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Aquaman (3 days out)

Midnight - 1.53m

OD - 10.00m (+22.55%) (66957 shows)

Sat - 6.67m

Sun - 4.58m

 

Very small increase for today, perhaps a sign that the inflated numbers are coming back to normal. This monday  increase is lower than almost all SH movies I have tracked with the exception of IW (but that was already at 90m OD presales at this point and had been running for nearly 20 days!)

 

The Sat numbers also could be weird IMO. They are jumping nearly exactly 1m everyday for the past 2/3 days now. The jumps are huge considering the OD jumps. The Sat numbers as a percentage of OD presales are also very high. I have not seen such inflated Sat numbers except in IW and JL.

 

Show counts are decent and on par with recent movies like Ant Man 2 and MI6 but lags behind Venom. It's likely Aquaman wont have as many shows as Venom did during its OW.

 

The weird numbers makes predicting very hard and unreliable. At this point I would say an OW in the 60-65m range but without any surety.

Aquaman is 29 minutes longer.

[ZeeSoh]

51 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Aquaman is 29 minutes longer.

And Infinity War is longer than Aquaman yet had way more shows than Venom (same with Jurassic World 2). Ant Man 2 has about the same run time as Venom and yet had less show times (comparable show times to Aquaman). The lenght is not the only thing that matters. Theatres predict, rightly perhaps, the success of a movie and assign shows based on that. Plus the crowdedness of the market also affects it

Edited December 3, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[Olive]

CGV cinemas want to increase their ticket price for Aquaman, thus locked hellua showtimes.

[NamakFiskKa]

2 minutes ago, Olive said:

CGV cinemas want to increase their ticket price for Aquaman, thus locked hellua showtimes.

Are they smelling a breakout ?

[MrGlass2]

4 minutes ago, Olive said:

CGV cinemas want to increase their ticket price for Aquaman, thus locked hellua showtimes.

Can't they just... increase their price? What does the lockout have to do with it?

(Buying tickets early is cheaper?)

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, Olive said:

CGV cinemas want to increase their ticket price for Aquaman, thus locked hellua showtimes.

Does Aquaman have previews like JL and WW or is it midnights only?

[Olive]

Just now, MrGlass2 said:

Can't they just... increase their price? What does the lockout have to do with it?

(Buying tickets early is cheaper?)

They bet on it to do huge numbers like Venom, they intended to start selling later than other chains with higher price.

[Olive]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Does Aquaman have previews like JL and WW or is it midnights only?

No early previews planned at this moment.