Legion Again Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 (edited) Looks roughly headed to mid-high 70s, but with it being day 00 I don’t have that much sense of how it will develop. Spoiler 8:10 43.23 8:30 43.30 9:03 43.49 9:32 43.74 10:00 44.05 10:30 44.87 11:00 45.72 11:30 46.41 12:00 46.85 12:30 47.37 13:00 48.38 13:30 49.15 14:00 49.83 14:30 50.56 15:00 51.68 16:00 53.37 17:30 55.36 Edited March 7, 2019 by Thanos Legion 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: Looks roughly headed to mid-high 70s, but with it being day 00 I don’t have that much sense of how it will develop. Hide contents 8:10 43.23 8:30 43.30 9:03 43.49 9:32 43.74 10:00 44.05 10:30 44.87 11:00 45.72 11:30 46.41 12:00 46.85 ICYMI 13:00 48.45 Edited March 7, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 midnights may break solo superhero movie record 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HouseOfTheSun Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, Olive said: midnights may break solo superhero movie record Which movie holds it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: Looks roughly headed to mid-high 70s, but with it being day 00 I don’t have that much sense of how it will develop. Reveal hidden contents 8:10 43.23 8:30 43.30 9:03 43.49 9:32 43.74 10:00 44.05 10:30 44.87 11:00 45.72 11:30 46.41 12:00 46.85 12:30 47.37 13:00 48.38 13:30 49.15 14:00 49.83 It running at 1.7m per hour. the rate will increase over 2m this evening and run thru 2am. Mid 70s. Its up to the rating now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said: Which movie holds it venom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeoC Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, Olive said: midnights may break solo superhero movie record MAY? Or WILL? Choose your word wisely.😁 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Very strong PS for Saturday. On midnight tomorrow, will be very close to Opening day PS at midnight today. If Rating is good, this will be huge. But a BIG IF. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 34 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Very strong PS for Saturday. On midnight tomorrow, will be very close to Opening day PS at midnight today. If Rating is good, this will be huge. But a BIG IF. Sat PS is usually close to OD PS. The PSm increases by 25-35% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 9 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: Looks roughly headed to mid-high 70s, but with it being day 00 I don’t have that much sense of how it will develop. Hide contents 8:10 43.23 8:30 43.30 9:03 43.49 9:32 43.74 10:00 44.05 10:30 44.87 11:00 45.72 11:30 46.41 12:00 46.85 12:30 47.37 13:00 48.38 13:30 49.15 14:00 49.83 14:30 50.56 15:00 51.68 16:00 53.37 17:30 55.36 Added ¥5mn in last 3 hours. Say it add ¥7mn in next 4. It will miss ¥70mn. ¥68mn most likely. ¥25mn final day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 54 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Added ¥5mn in last 3 hours. Say it add ¥7mn in next 4. It will miss ¥70mn. ¥68mn most likely. ¥25mn final day. Presales will continue until 2 or 3 AM so it's not missing 70M. It should speed up even more over next few hrs; it may not get to mid 70s but low 70s should happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Just now, druv10 said: Presales will continue until 2 or 3 AM so it's not missing 70M. It should speed up even more over next few hrs; it may not get to mid 70s but low 70s should happen. I consider till midnight only for my analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 On 11/9/2018 at 12:45 AM, ZeeSoh said: Venom (Final) OD - 60.06m (+76.18%) (155,860 shows) Sat - 27.66m Sun - 9.66m Just checked, these number are for 3AM. So yeah, will cross ¥70mn considering that easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 39 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Just checked, these number are for 3AM. So yeah, will cross ¥70mn considering that easily. PS typically stop rolling in by 3am. We usually use that time for the final number 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 4 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Just checked, these number are for 3AM. So yeah, will cross ¥70mn considering that easily. I always report the final day PS number hours after midnight because numbers keep increasing even after midnight. As for other days numbers I used to report the midnight numbers but for CM I started recording the number few hours after midnight because the number keeps on increasing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Final Pre-sales Friday: ¥72.7mn ($10.8mn) 160k shows Saturday: ¥32.1mn ($4.8mn) Sunday: ¥11.4mn ($1.7mn) Total: ¥116.2mn (¥17.3mn) Comps https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk All time highest pre-sales for a Solo superhero and 2nd all time for super hero film after Infinity War. Opening day projection ¥220-250mn. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rishijoesanu Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 When's the Maoyan rating coming out? Do you all put a lot of stock in Maoyan rating in judging the internal multi? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 1 minute ago, rishijoesanu said: When's the Maoyan rating coming out? Do you all put a lot of stock in Maoyan rating in judging the internal multi? Almost 4 AM, I think there should be a rating pretty soon. Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Almost 4 AM, I think there should be a rating pretty soon. Yes. Sometime around 12-2pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 (edited) Captain Marvel (Final) OD - 73.08m (+69.55%) (160212 shows) Sat - 32.25m Sun - 11.44m Captain Marvel's final PS is the highest ever for a solo superhero movie and behind only that of Infinity War and Age of Ultron! Exactly the same last day bump as Black Panther, but smaller than other SH movies that see anywhere from 75% (Venom) to 100% (Thor Ragnarok) jump. Sole exception being Infinity War which only jumped 40% Show count is also very high, second only to Infinity War amongst SH movies. Venom and Aquaman comes closest at 156k shows. Captain Marvel's Saturday PS is also the highest only behind that of Infinity War amongst the super hero I have tracked. It's Sat PS is even higher than the final OD PS of Thor Ragnarok and Justice League and only slightly behind that of Aquaman, Spider-man Homecoming and Alita. Movie PS to OW multi Captain Marvel’s OW if it has same multi Aquaman 18.06 1319 Thor Ragnarok 14.96 1093 Justice League 13.26 969 SMH 12.83 937 Venom 12.76 932 GoTG2 12.02 878 Ant Man 2 9.97 728 Black Panther 9.27 677 Infinity War 6.98 510 Movie Midnight to OW multi Captain Marvel’s OW if it has same multi Aquaman 72.76 1124 GoTG2 56.43 872 Venom 53.18 821 Thor Ragnarok 52.54 812 Black Panther 49.41 763 SMH 49.3 762 Ant Man 2 48.94 756 Justice League 41.51 641 Infinity War 21.37 330 So according to above tables, the extreme high end is 196m OW using Aquaman comparisons and absolute lowest is 50m using Infinity War comparisons. Black Panther would be the best comparisons which would give an OW range of 100-110m OW. Now its all upto the ratings. Friday being International Womens day might mean that OW multi may be a bit low but I dont see it being lower than Infinity War whose multi would give it an OW of 75m. Overall I tend to go a bit pessimistic with my predictions so I will go with a prediction of 85m OW Edited March 7, 2019 by ZeeSoh 2 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
