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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

By Olive, in China At The Box Office

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted

Captain Marvel T-1 Day

Previews: ¥6.3mn  ($0.94mn)  +37%

Friday: ¥42.3mn  ($6.31mn)  +43%
Saturday: ¥19.8mn  ($2.96mn)  +50%

Sunday: ¥7.5mn ($1.12mn)  +47%

 

Total: ¥75.9mn ($11.33mn) +45%

 

Comps

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk

 

On expected ground, added around ¥13mn on Wednesday, that's better than ¥12.5mn of Civil War.

 

Expected final pre sales for opening day ¥72mn Approx.

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, a2k said:

~200 on Sun would give it 680 ow ($101).

 

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Please post USD equivalents! So is it gonna open above CW? 🙏

 

For the moment the exchange rate is ... see above a2k's post $1 = ¥6.8

 

I think the number seekers and crunchers do already a lot, we 'normalos' could add additional posts with the amount in $, or? (they do add a lot per charts... in $ too, I mean the in-between posts)

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Valonqar Global Phenomenon

Valonqar

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, UserHN said:

What?! There are clubs like those? 😆😆. I doubt it will happen though. But as always, I'm still being conservative in my predictions.

I'm very confident though. CM can exceed TLJ OS and come close dom. I expect IX to drop from TLJ cause OS will go down and I don't expect big enough increase dom to close the gap. 

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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

Posted
Posted

Captain Marvel (1 day out)

 

Midnight - 6.56m

OD - 43.1m (43.28%) (124771 shows)

Sat - 20.36m

Sun - 7.50m

 

OD - Good increase today. However compared to other SH movies today's increase is the second lowest with only Venom, Infinity War and Black Panther having a smaller increase. Most others increased 50-60% on the penultimate day. BUT it is important to see the context here. Captain Marvel's number is so strong and its previous increases so good that it can afford to have a somewhat smaller than normal increase. Kind of like Infinity War. 

 

To give an idea of how strong Captain Marvel's numbers are it has already eclipsed the final PS total of movies like GotG2 (28.45), Spiderman Homecoming (36), Thor Ragnarok (24.2), Justice League (26), Aquaman (35.04), Bumblebee and Alita (33.5). It is also very lose to the final number of Ant Man 2 (46.6) and Black Panther (45.5). 

 

Saturday - Captain Marvel's Saturday number is also very strong and higher than any movie I have tracked except Infinity War. It's Saturday number infact is higher than the OD PS (1 day out) of movies like GotG2, SMH, Thor, Justice League, Alita, Bumblebee  and Aquaman

 

Show count - CM's show count is also very high and behind only Infinity War, Venom and Jurassic World 2 (only by 2k for the latter two). It's likely heading to a final show count in the 150k region like that of Aquaman, Jurassic World 2 and Venom but will fall short of the 177k of Infinity War. 

 

Projection - There has been some doom and gloom regarding the review bombing on sites like Douban so it is important to remember how strong Captain Marvel's numbers are. Below I will try and give a very pessimistic prediction to show that even with the worst case scenario Captain Marvel will still do good numbers.

 

Final Day PS - Most other SH movies increased in the range of 70% (Black Panther) to 100% (Thor Ragnarok). Only Infinity War had a lower increase on the final day of about 40%. CM is not gonna have a small increase like that of IW. It increased 43% today compared to 20% of IW. So let's go with the lowest number it might increase and say it will increase slightly lower than BP at 65% which will give it a final PS of 71m

 

OW - The lowest PS to OW multi amongst SH movie is that of Infinity War at 6.98x. Others like BP had a multi of 9.27, Ant Man 2 at 9.97x and recent movies like Venom at 12.76x and Aquaman at 18.06x. Let's go with the lowest one of Infinity War and give CM an Ow multi of 7. That will give it an OW of 74.5m

 

Legs - The lowest legs amongst SH movies was Black Panther at 1.61x. Let's give CM an even lower multi at 1.5x. That gives a total gross of 111m

 

Even with such highly pessimistic prediction it still will gross as much as average SH movies make in China. Which in itself would not be a bad gross for a female led solo origin movie. It has no significant competition in its second week so should hold on to a decent amount of screens. Green Book is going strong but is not big enough to cause significant damage to CM. 

 

Now CM could prove to be an even bigger outlier and perform worse in every single category above than the worst ones but I think that is highly unlikely. Even if it performs exactly like Black Panther on OW and legs wise it still would gross 163m

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Captain Marvel (1 day out)

 

Midnight - 6.56m

OD - 43.1m (43.28%) (124771 shows)

Sat - 20.36m

Sun - 7.50m

 

OD - Good increase today. However compared to other SH movies today's increase is the second lowest with only Venom, Infinity War and Black Panther having a smaller increase. Most others increased 50-60% on the penultimate day. BUT it is important to see the context here. Captain Marvel's number is so strong and its previous increases so good that it can afford to have a somewhat smaller than normal increase. Kind of like Infinity War. 

 

To give an idea of how strong Captain Marvel's numbers are it has already eclipsed the final PS total of movies like GotG2 (28.45), Spiderman Homecoming (36), Thor Ragnarok (24.2), Justice League (26), Aquaman (35.04), Bumblebee and Alita (33.5). It is also very lose to the final number of Ant Man 2 (46.6) and Black Panther (45.5). 

 

Saturday - Captain Marvel's Saturday number is also very strong and higher than any movie I have tracked except Infinity War. It's Saturday number infact is higher than the OD PS (1 day out) of movies like GotG2, SMH, Thor, Justice League, Alita, Bumblebee  and Aquaman

 

Show count - CM's show count is also very high and behind only Infinity War, Venom and Jurassic World 2 (only by 2k for the latter two). It's likely heading to a final show count in the 150k region like that of Aquaman, Jurassic World 2 and Venom but will fall short of the 177k of Infinity War. 

 

Projection - There has been some doom and gloom regarding the review bombing on sites like Douban so it is important to remember how strong Captain Marvel's numbers are. Below I will try and give a very pessimistic prediction to show that even with the worst case scenario Captain Marvel will still do good numbers.

 

Final Day PS - Most other SH movies increased in the range of 70% (Black Panther) to 100% (Thor Ragnarok). Only Infinity War had a lower increase on the final day of about 40%. CM is not gonna have a small increase like that of IW. It increased 43% today compared to 20% of IW. So let's go with the lowest number it might increase and say it will increase slightly lower than BP at 65% which will give it a final PS of 71m

 

OW - The lowest PS to OW multi amongst SH movie is that of Infinity War at 6.98x. Others like BP had a multi of 9.27, Ant Man 2 at 9.97x and recent movies like Venom at 12.76x and Aquaman at 18.06x. Let's go with the lowest one of Infinity War and give CM an Ow multi of 7. That will give it an OW of 74.5m

 

Legs - The lowest legs amongst SH movies was Black Panther at 1.61x. Let's give CM an even lower multi at 1.5x. That gives a total gross of 111m

 

Even with such highly pessimistic prediction it still will gross as much as average SH movies make in China. Which in itself would not be a bad gross for a female led solo origin movie. It has no significant competition in its second week so should hold on to a decent amount of screens. Green Book is going strong but is not big enough to cause significant damage to CM. 

 

Now CM could prove to be an even bigger outlier and perform worse in every single category above than the worst ones but I think that is highly unlikely. Even if it performs exactly like Black Panther on OW and legs wise it still would gross 163m

so if it hits 100 ow then with bad wom will hit around 150-160 ,with average 170-180 and good 200+ ?

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yes. If it hits 100m OW then those numbers are possible

wow if captain marvel can do that then endgame is gonna shake the world also why so high though is it bc its the first big blockbuster or is it because superhero movie became bigger ?

Edited by john2000
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MrGlass2 Summer Tentpole

MrGlass2

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

wow if captain marvel can do that then endgame is gonna shake the world also why so high though is it bc its the first big blockbuster or is it because superhero movie became bigger ?

AM2, Venom and Aquaman have all broken the solo superhero record in the last months. With these crazy presales, Captain Marvel could continue the streak.

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

AM2, Venom and Aquaman have all broken the solo superhero record in the last months. With these crazy presales, Captain Marvel could continue the streak.

I was dreaming of this a few days ago, but doesn’t sound like the reception will be there for such a high multi.

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MrGlass2 Summer Tentpole

MrGlass2

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, john2000 said:

omg i cannt imagine what endgame will do 

Solo superhero movies had strangely been left behind in China to some degree. The Chinese market grew ever bigger but solo films seemed stuck around $100M. Venom and Aquaman have changed that.

 

Infinity War, of course, is in a different category entirely and it will be almost impossible for Endgame to increase as much as solo movies have done in the last months. Not decreasing from IW would already be great.

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Valonqar Global Phenomenon

Valonqar

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, john2000 said:

wow if captain marvel can do that then endgame is gonna shake the world also why so high though is it bc its the first big blockbuster or is it because superhero movie became bigger ?

endgame was going to shake the world regardless but with CM lead-in the sky will fall. 

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