POTUS 2020 Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 @Thanos Legion @Charlie Jatinder @ZeeSoh and anyone else stick this in your back pocket for next month https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jnb9fFsFHiQ-ZH1oTZXX7YmoqymZ-vKs3jOwRImNHp8/edit?usp=sharing Days Out TA:IW TA:EG MN PS %Incr OD PS Incr %Incr MN PS %Incr OD PS Incr %Incr 21 20 ¥0.40 ¥1.00 ¥1.00 19 ¥1.30 0.90 225% ¥1.20 20% ¥2.00 1.00 100% 78 ¥2.00 0.70 54% 17 ¥3.30 1.30 65% 16 ¥4.60 1.30 39% 15 ¥5.60 ¥8.50 3.90 85% 14 ¥7.80 39% ¥14.60 6.10 72% 13 ¥9.00 15% ¥18.50 3.90 27% 12 ¥10.10 12% ¥22.30 3.80 21% 11 ¥11.00 9% ¥25.60 3.30 15% 10 ¥11.90 8% ¥29.00 3.40 13% 9 ¥12.80 8% ¥33.70 4.70 16% 8 ¥15.00 17% ¥43.10 9.40 28% 7 ¥16.60 11% ¥50.40 7.30 17% 6 ¥17.90 8% ¥58.20 7.80 15% 5 ¥19.30 8% ¥65.80 7.60 13% 4 ¥20.90 8% ¥75.30 9.50 14% 3 ¥22.80 9% ¥88.90 13.60 18% 2 ¥25.80 13% ¥107.40 18.50 21% 1 ¥30.60 19% ¥129.00 21.60 20% Final ¥55.90 83% ¥182.00 53.00 41% OD(m) ¥387 ¥1 PSm 2.13 #DIV/0! OW(m) ¥1,271 ¥1 OW$(m) $200.47 $0.16 3 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 EndGame is only 19 days out?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, UserHN said: Is your prediction for China OW increasing? I'm still thinking $75-100m. More is always possible 1 hour ago, fmpro said: EndGame is only 19 days out?? no. i said next month. i put in a few day's numbers just for the format Edited March 5, 2019 by POTUS 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 Captain Marvel T-2 Days Out Previews: ¥4.6mn Friday: ¥29.6mn (+41%) Saturday: ¥13.2mn Sunday: ¥5.1mn Total: ¥52.5mn or $7.84mn (+40%) Comps https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk Tuesday was ¥8.6mn, just below Civil War ¥9.1mn. If it add similar number as Civil War, final PS will be ¥70mn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Captain Marvel T-2 Days Out Previews: ¥4.6mn Friday: ¥29.6mn (+41%) Saturday: ¥13.2mn Sunday: ¥5.1mn Total: ¥52.5mn or $7.84mn (+40%) Comps https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk Tuesday was ¥8.6mn, just below Civil War ¥9.1mn. If it add similar number as Civil War, final PS will be ¥70mn. Is that in line with your earlier expectations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, UserHN said: Is that in line with your earlier expectations? A bit lower but nothing to be worried of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 39 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: A bit lower but nothing to be worried of. The thing is, CM has to make so much money in its China OW because we all know that the legs won't be that great unless it surprises with a 8.9+ Maoyan rating, which is very unlikely based on Gavin Feng's comments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThomasNicole Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, UserHN said: The thing is, CM has to make so much money in its China OW because we all know that the legs won't be that great unless it surprises with a 8.9+ Maoyan rating, which is very unlikely based on Gavin Feng's comments. Reactions aren’t great, but not bad either. It doesn’t seems like this will have a low rating like BP, probably an 8.5 or so BP have a 1.6x with an 8.0 score, so CM could have a 1.7 - 1.8x, coming of a $ 90-100M debut, i don’t think anyone will complain. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
movieboner Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 21 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: If China explodes with a shocking 9.6 Maoyan and like a 130M OW, while it get a shock 55% RT US, last week US presales crater, and/or it turns out to be unprecedentedly frontloaded for an MCU Solo then this is theoretically possible. I’d pit it at well under 1%. I agree with Feasby that US OW over China total is more plausible, though I think I’d put that at <3%. Either way, Captain Marvel and the MCU wins by having super success in the 2 largest markets. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Yesterday miss the target by a million yuan. Nevermind. Today's target ¥42mn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 (edited) On 3/4/2019 at 7:10 PM, Thanos Legion said: Sunday after midnight sales (adds to Mon total) were a tad stronger than Mon after midnight (adds to Tues total) which skews things slightly. I’ve got: yesterday 7-10 +27 10-11 +44 Today 7-10 +44 10-11 +62 I think gains will pace around +40-50% from yesterday, leading to about +9/10 midnight. Looking for benchmarks of about 14:00 24.2, 17:30 26.3, 30.2 midnight. Reveal hidden contents 7:00 21.37 8:00 21.41 8:33 21.445 9:02 21.56 9:32 21.66 10:03 21.81 10:30 22.02 11:02 22.43 11:30 22.74 12:02 23.02 12:30 Frozen 13:00 23.31 13:32 23.80 14:00 Frozen 14:12 24.17 14:30 Frozen 15:30 24.88 16:00 25.13 16:30 25.46 17:00 25.67 17:30 26.15 14:00 update: Maoyan has been a little jerkier than usual today, at least for me. But we’re pretty much right on track with my benchmark above, so no change to estimate. Today: 7-10 +.58 10-11 +.87 Roughly double Mon pace so far, so perhaps add 13? My targets roughly 14:00 34.2, 17:30 37.3, midnight 42.6. However, would not be surprised with additional acceleration at night today since it’s so close. Half hour update as usual. Spoiler 7:00 30.1 8:30 30.24 9:30 30.47 10:00 30.68 10:30 31.12 11:00 31.55 11:30 32.20 12:02 32.69 12:32 32.95 13:03 33.54 13:32 34.09 14:00 34.30 14:30 34.62 15:00 35.00 15:30 35.34 16:00 35.75 17:05 36.54 18:03 37.41 12:00 update: +1.14 this hour, so we can safely expect it to exceed above, perhaps by a big margin. Seems like the daily pattern so close to release will be different than previous days, so won’t even try to give a new trajectory. Just sit back and enjoy 13:00 update: +.85 despite the big noon slowdown. Maybe hourly rate shall stabilize around 1.2, maybe higher still? 45+ seems on the way for that +50% POTUS was always expecting 16:00 update: Looks like 11 was actually the outlier rather than a harbinger of a new pace. Last several hours seems to be ~.7 per. Maybe ending around 41-43 after all. This might be the last update, going to sleep too late several days in a row starting to take its toll. Edited March 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeoC Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 @Thanos Legion The 11:30 number should be 32.20, not 31.20? Thank you for tracking the presales numbers for us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 24 minutes ago, LeoC said: @Thanos Legion The 11:30 number should be 32.20, not 31.20? Thank you for tracking the presales numbers for us! Yes, typo. Thanks and fixed. Just got curious what the patterns throughout the day were and wanted to be at least a bit familiar with them for Endgame, which I’m sure I’ll follow even more obsessively. But anyone else finding it interesting is a great bonus. 12:00 to 12:30 is only +.26, but I’ll point out that period is usually 25% or less the nearby hourly rate rather than 50%, not sure why but maybe to do with lunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Yes, typo. Thanks and fixed. Just got curious what the patterns throughout the day were and wanted to be at least a bit familiar with them for Endgame, which I’m sure I’ll follow even more obsessively. But anyone else finding it interesting is a great bonus. 12:00 to 12:30 is only +.26, but I’ll point out that period is usually 25% or less the nearby hourly rate rather than 50%, not sure why but maybe to do with lunch. Unlike, the actual day, pre-sales could be anywhere in trend since there is no fixed time when people book tickets in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Unlike, the actual day, pre-sales could be anywhere in trend since there is no fixed time when people book tickets in advance. To some extent yes, but I’d certainly be less likely to buy tickets for a movie coming up on the weekend while I’m eating a meal, and at least in US lunchtimes are more concentrated in a certain hour than dinner. Anyway, have observed it enough now that I’ve come to expect it, but no explanation I’m super sure about. Will see if PS continue to dip at noon or not for other runs. Edited March 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeoC Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 34 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Yes, typo. Thanks and fixed. Just got curious what the patterns throughout the day were and wanted to be at least a bit familiar with them for Endgame, which I’m sure I’ll follow even more obsessively. But anyone else finding it interesting is a great bonus. 12:00 to 12:30 is only +.26, but I’ll point out that period is usually 25% or less the nearby hourly rate rather than 50%, not sure why but maybe to do with lunch. "Lunchtime" is also my guess for the slow down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 So that “maybe I’ll go to sleep earlier today” thing didn’t exactly work out. After the brief ups and downs earlier I’m right back at expecting 42, but maybe the night will surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 And ¥40mn crossed in pre-sales for OD. It is frozen for some time now, could defreeze and jump anytime. ¥42mn is possibility. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonder89 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 (edited) When we will know Maoyan score for CM? Edited March 6, 2019 by Wonder89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Wonder89 said: When we will know Maoyan score for CM? Friday morning perhaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
